Thank you for doing this properly. You are right on every point, and I appreciate that you verified the tallies reproduce before critiquing the framing.
I agree the full-set accuracy mixes two tasks. Predicting resolution failures that uv already reports is the easy part, and the 90.0% headline benefits from the validation split being 79.1% resolution failures. The number that matters for the dataset's core claim is the resolved-only subset, and I should have reported it separately from the start. I will update the dataset card to show resolved-only metrics beside full-set metrics.
You are also right that the sealed split is 4 pairs, not 6 packages crossed, and that all 79 post-resolve failures come from the celery/kombu/billiard family. So the honest statement is: the post-resolve signal was validated on one unseen family, not on unseen packages broadly. I will correct that wording too.
Your question, which development pairs produce the most import failures: pandas+seaborn is the largest (354 import failures plus 92 smoke-test failures out of 588 resolved rows, 75.9% post-resolve failure rate), then matplotlib+seaborn (264 import failures, 51.0%), flask+jinja2 (238, 46.1%), and numpy+opencv-python (196, where every resolved row fails import). Overall the development resolved-only subset is 15,080 rows: 12,031 pass, 2,448 import failures, 601 smoke-test failures, so always-pass scores 79.8% there.
Two pairs are degenerate in the other direction: fastapi+starlette (all 338 resolved rows fail the smoke test) and numpy+opencv-python (all 196 resolved rows fail import). A constant predictor is unbeatable on those, so they would make poor holdouts too. The most informative holdout candidates are the mixed pairs where neither constant baseline wins: matplotlib+seaborn (300 pass vs 312 post-resolve failures, almost exactly balanced), flask+jinja2 (291 vs 249), and pandas+seaborn (142 vs 446).
For the next release: (1) resolved-only accuracy reported beside full-set accuracy, (2) a re-cut sealed split holding out at least one mixed family, likely matplotlib+seaborn, and (3) the reserved 9-package final test set run with that design. If you see a better holdout choice in these numbers, I am genuinely interested.