Daily Papers

In this paper, we study the problem of inference in high-order structured prediction tasks. In the context of Markov random fields, the goal of a high-order inference task is to maximize a score function on the space of labels, and the score function can be decomposed into sum of unary and high-order potentials. We apply a generative model approach to study the problem of high-order inference, and provide a two-stage convex optimization algorithm for exact label recovery. We also provide a new class of hypergraph structural properties related to hyperedge expansion that drives the success in general high-order inference problems. Finally, we connect the performance of our algorithm and the hyperedge expansion property using a novel hypergraph Cheeger-type inequality.

Sequential Bayesian inference can be used for continual learning to prevent catastrophic forgetting of past tasks and provide an informative prior when learning new tasks. We revisit sequential Bayesian inference and test whether having access to the true posterior is guaranteed to prevent catastrophic forgetting in Bayesian neural networks. To do this we perform sequential Bayesian inference using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We propagate the posterior as a prior for new tasks by fitting a density estimator on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samples. We find that this approach fails to prevent catastrophic forgetting demonstrating the difficulty in performing sequential Bayesian inference in neural networks. From there we study simple analytical examples of sequential Bayesian inference and CL and highlight the issue of model misspecification which can lead to sub-optimal continual learning performance despite exact inference. Furthermore, we discuss how task data imbalances can cause forgetting. From these limitations, we argue that we need probabilistic models of the continual learning generative process rather than relying on sequential Bayesian inference over Bayesian neural network weights. In this vein, we also propose a simple baseline called Prototypical Bayesian Continual Learning, which is competitive with state-of-the-art Bayesian continual learning methods on class incremental continual learning vision benchmarks.

We study the problem of combining neural networks with symbolic reasoning. Recently introduced frameworks for Probabilistic Neurosymbolic Learning (PNL), such as DeepProbLog, perform exponential-time exact inference, limiting the scalability of PNL solutions. We introduce Approximate Neurosymbolic Inference (A-NeSI): a new framework for PNL that uses neural networks for scalable approximate inference. A-NeSI 1) performs approximate inference in polynomial time without changing the semantics of probabilistic logics; 2) is trained using data generated by the background knowledge; 3) can generate symbolic explanations of predictions; and 4) can guarantee the satisfaction of logical constraints at test time, which is vital in safety-critical applications. Our experiments show that A-NeSI is the first end-to-end method to solve three neurosymbolic tasks with exponential combinatorial scaling. Finally, our experiments show that A-NeSI achieves explainability and safety without a penalty in performance.

Decoding for many NLP tasks requires an effective heuristic algorithm for approximating exact search since the problem of searching the full output space is often intractable, or impractical in many settings. The default algorithm for this job is beam search -- a pruned version of breadth-first search. Quite surprisingly, beam search often returns better results than exact inference due to beneficial search bias for NLP tasks. In this work, we show that the standard implementation of beam search can be made up to 10x faster in practice. Our method assumes that the scoring function is monotonic in the sequence length, which allows us to safely prune hypotheses that cannot be in the final set of hypotheses early on. We devise effective monotonic approximations to popular nonmonontic scoring functions, including length normalization and mutual information decoding. Lastly, we propose a memory-reduced variant of Best-First Beam Search, which has a similar beneficial search bias in terms of downstream performance, but runs in a fraction of the time.

We consider higher-order linear-chain conditional random fields (HO-LC-CRFs) for sequence modelling, and use sum-product networks (SPNs) for representing higher-order input- and output-dependent factors. SPNs are a recently introduced class of deep models for which exact and efficient inference can be performed. By combining HO-LC-CRFs with SPNs, expressive models over both the output labels and the hidden variables are instantiated while still enabling efficient exact inference. Furthermore, the use of higher-order factors allows us to capture relations of multiple input segments and multiple output labels as often present in real-world data. These relations can not be modelled by the commonly used first-order models and higher-order models with local factors including only a single output label. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed models for sequence labeling. In extensive experiments, we outperform other state-of-the-art methods in optical character recognition and achieve competitive results in phone classification.

Bayesian optimization is a highly efficient approach to optimizing objective functions which are expensive to query. These objectives are typically represented by Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models which are easy to optimize and support exact inference. While standard GP surrogates have been well-established in Bayesian optimization, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently become practical function approximators, with many benefits over standard GPs such as the ability to naturally handle non-stationarity and learn representations for high-dimensional data. In this paper, we study BNNs as alternatives to standard GP surrogates for optimization. We consider a variety of approximate inference procedures for finite-width BNNs, including high-quality Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, low-cost stochastic MCMC, and heuristics such as deep ensembles. We also consider infinite-width BNNs and partially stochastic models such as deep kernel learning. We evaluate this collection of surrogate models on diverse problems with varying dimensionality, number of objectives, non-stationarity, and discrete and continuous inputs. We find: (i) the ranking of methods is highly problem dependent, suggesting the need for tailored inductive biases; (ii) HMC is the most successful approximate inference procedure for fully stochastic BNNs; (iii) full stochasticity may be unnecessary as deep kernel learning is relatively competitive; (iv) infinite-width BNNs are particularly promising, especially in high dimensions.

The fastrerandomize R package provides hardware-accelerated tools for performing rerandomization and randomization testing in experimental research. Using a JAX backend, the package enables exact rerandomization inference even for large experiments with hundreds of billions of possible randomizations. Key functionalities include generating pools of acceptable rerandomizations based on covariate balance, conducting exact randomization tests, and performing pre-analysis evaluations to determine optimal rerandomization acceptance thresholds. Through batched processing and GPU acceleration, fastrerandomize achieves substantial performance gains compared to existing implementations, making previously intractable designs computationally feasible. The package therefore extends the randomization-based inference toolkit in R, allowing researchers to efficiently implement more stringent rerandomization designs and conduct valid inference even with large sample sizes or in high-dimensional settings.

We introduce a hierarchical filtering procedure for generative models of sequences on trees, enabling control over the range of positional correlations in the data. Leveraging this controlled setting, we provide evidence that vanilla encoder-only transformer architectures can implement the optimal Belief Propagation algorithm on both root classification and masked language modeling tasks. Correlations at larger distances corresponding to increasing layers of the hierarchy are sequentially included as the network is trained. We analyze how the transformer layers succeed by focusing on attention maps from models trained with varying degrees of filtering. These attention maps show clear evidence for iterative hierarchical reconstruction of correlations, and we can relate these observations to a plausible implementation of the exact inference algorithm for the network sizes considered.

Unsupervised learning of probabilistic models is a central yet challenging problem in machine learning. Specifically, designing models with tractable learning, sampling, inference and evaluation is crucial in solving this task. We extend the space of such models using real-valued non-volume preserving (real NVP) transformations, a set of powerful invertible and learnable transformations, resulting in an unsupervised learning algorithm with exact log-likelihood computation, exact sampling, exact inference of latent variables, and an interpretable latent space. We demonstrate its ability to model natural images on four datasets through sampling, log-likelihood evaluation and latent variable manipulations.

Early stopping based on hold-out data is a popular regularization technique designed to mitigate overfitting and increase the predictive accuracy of neural networks. Models trained with early stopping often provide relatively accurate predictions, but they generally still lack precise statistical guarantees unless they are further calibrated using independent hold-out data. This paper addresses the above limitation with conformalized early stopping: a novel method that combines early stopping with conformal calibration while efficiently recycling the same hold-out data. This leads to models that are both accurate and able to provide exact predictive inferences without multiple data splits nor overly conservative adjustments. Practical implementations are developed for different learning tasks -- outlier detection, multi-class classification, regression -- and their competitive performance is demonstrated on real data.

Variational inference is becoming more and more popular for approximating intractable posterior distributions in Bayesian statistics and machine learning. Meanwhile, a few recent works have provided theoretical justification and new insights on deep neural networks for estimating smooth functions in usual settings such as nonparametric regression. In this paper, we show that variational inference for sparse deep learning retains the same generalization properties than exact Bayesian inference. In particular, we highlight the connection between estimation and approximation theories via the classical bias-variance trade-off and show that it leads to near-minimax rates of convergence for H\"older smooth functions. Additionally, we show that the model selection framework over the neural network architecture via ELBO maximization does not overfit and adaptively achieves the optimal rate of convergence.

The framework of reinforcement learning or optimal control provides a mathematical formalization of intelligent decision making that is powerful and broadly applicable. While the general form of the reinforcement learning problem enables effective reasoning about uncertainty, the connection between reinforcement learning and inference in probabilistic models is not immediately obvious. However, such a connection has considerable value when it comes to algorithm design: formalizing a problem as probabilistic inference in principle allows us to bring to bear a wide array of approximate inference tools, extend the model in flexible and powerful ways, and reason about compositionality and partial observability. In this article, we will discuss how a generalization of the reinforcement learning or optimal control problem, which is sometimes termed maximum entropy reinforcement learning, is equivalent to exact probabilistic inference in the case of deterministic dynamics, and variational inference in the case of stochastic dynamics. We will present a detailed derivation of this framework, overview prior work that has drawn on this and related ideas to propose new reinforcement learning and control algorithms, and describe perspectives on future research.

We introduce marginalization models (MaMs), a new family of generative models for high-dimensional discrete data. They offer scalable and flexible generative modeling with tractable likelihoods by explicitly modeling all induced marginal distributions. Marginalization models enable fast evaluation of arbitrary marginal probabilities with a single forward pass of the neural network, which overcomes a major limitation of methods with exact marginal inference, such as autoregressive models (ARMs). We propose scalable methods for learning the marginals, grounded in the concept of "marginalization self-consistency". Unlike previous methods, MaMs support scalable training of any-order generative models for high-dimensional problems under the setting of energy-based training, where the goal is to match the learned distribution to a given desired probability (specified by an unnormalized (log) probability function such as energy function or reward function). We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model on a variety of discrete data distributions, including binary images, language, physical systems, and molecules, for maximum likelihood and energy-based training settings. MaMs achieve orders of magnitude speedup in evaluating the marginal probabilities on both settings. For energy-based training tasks, MaMs enable any-order generative modeling of high-dimensional problems beyond the capability of previous methods. Code is at https://github.com/PrincetonLIPS/MaM.

Flow-based generative models (Dinh et al., 2014) are conceptually attractive due to tractability of the exact log-likelihood, tractability of exact latent-variable inference, and parallelizability of both training and synthesis. In this paper we propose Glow, a simple type of generative flow using an invertible 1x1 convolution. Using our method we demonstrate a significant improvement in log-likelihood on standard benchmarks. Perhaps most strikingly, we demonstrate that a generative model optimized towards the plain log-likelihood objective is capable of efficient realistic-looking synthesis and manipulation of large images. The code for our model is available at https://github.com/openai/glow

Diffusion models have exhibited excellent performance in various domains. The probability flow ordinary differential equation (ODE) of diffusion models (i.e., diffusion ODEs) is a particular case of continuous normalizing flows (CNFs), which enables deterministic inference and exact likelihood evaluation. However, the likelihood estimation results by diffusion ODEs are still far from those of the state-of-the-art likelihood-based generative models. In this work, we propose several improved techniques for maximum likelihood estimation for diffusion ODEs, including both training and evaluation perspectives. For training, we propose velocity parameterization and explore variance reduction techniques for faster convergence. We also derive an error-bounded high-order flow matching objective for finetuning, which improves the ODE likelihood and smooths its trajectory. For evaluation, we propose a novel training-free truncated-normal dequantization to fill the training-evaluation gap commonly existing in diffusion ODEs. Building upon these techniques, we achieve state-of-the-art likelihood estimation results on image datasets (2.56 on CIFAR-10, 3.43/3.69 on ImageNet-32) without variational dequantization or data augmentation.

Emerging Large Language Model (LLM) applications require long input prompts to perform complex downstream tasks like document analysis and code generation. For these long context length applications, the length of the input prompt poses a significant challenge in terms of inference efficiency since the inference costs increase linearly with sequence length. However, for many of these applications, much of the context in the prompt is fixed across different user inputs, thereby providing the opportunity to perform offline optimizations to process user inputs quickly, as they are received. In this work, we propose Squeezed Attention as a mechanism to accelerate LLM applications where a large portion of the input prompt is fixed. We first leverage K-means clustering offline to group the keys for the fixed context based on semantic similarity and represent each cluster with a single centroid value. During inference, we compare query tokens from the user input with the centroids to predict which of the keys from the fixed context are semantically relevant and need to be loaded during inference. We then compute exact attention using only these important keys from the fixed context, thereby reducing bandwidth and computational costs. We also extend our method to use a hierarchical centroid lookup to identify important keys, which can reduce the complexity of attention from linear to logarithmic with respect to the context length. We implement optimized Triton kernels for centroid comparison and sparse FlashAttention with important keys, achieving more than 4x speedups during both the prefill and generation phases for long-context inference. Furthermore, we have extensively evaluated our method on various long-context benchmarks including LongBench, where it achieves a 3x reduction in KV cache budget without accuracy loss and up to an 8x reduction with <0.5 point accuracy gap for various models.

This paper introduces KunLunBaizeRAG, a reinforcement learning-driven reasoning framework designed to enhance the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) in complex multi-hop question-answering tasks. The framework addresses key limitations of traditional RAG, such as retrieval drift, information redundancy, and strategy rigidity. Key innovations include the RAG-driven Reasoning Alignment (RDRA) mechanism, the Search-Think Iterative Enhancement (STIE) mechanism, the Network-Local Intelligent Routing (NLR) mechanism, and a progressive hybrid training strategy. Experimental results demonstrate significant improvements in exact match (EM) and LLM-judged score (LJ) across four benchmarks, highlighting the framework's robustness and effectiveness in complex reasoning scenarios.

We present context parallelism for long-context large language model inference, which achieves near-linear scaling for long-context prefill latency with up to 128 H100 GPUs across 16 nodes. Particularly, our method achieves 1M context prefill with Llama3 405B model in 77s (93% parallelization efficiency, 63% FLOPS utilization) and 128K context prefill in 3.8s. We develop two lossless exact ring attention variants: pass-KV and pass-Q to cover a wide range of use cases with the state-of-the-art performance: full prefill, persistent KV prefill and decode. Benchmarks on H100 GPU hosts inter-connected with RDMA and TCP both show similar scalability for long-context prefill, demonstrating that our method scales well using common commercial data center with medium-to-low inter-host bandwidth.

Attention is the dominant source of latency during long-context LLM inference, an increasingly popular workload with reasoning models and RAG. We propose Kascade, a training-free sparse attention method that leverages known observations such as 1) post-softmax attention is intrinsically sparse, and 2) the identity of high-weight keys is stable across nearby layers. Kascade computes exact Top-k indices in a small set of anchor layers, then reuses those indices in intermediate reuse layers. The anchor layers are selected algorithmically, via a dynamic-programming objective that maximizes cross-layer similarity over a development set, allowing easy deployment across models. The method incorporates efficient implementation constraints (e.g. tile-level operations), across both prefill and decode attention. The Top-k selection and reuse in Kascade is head-aware and we show in our experiments that this is critical for high accuracy. Kascade achieves up to 4.1x speedup in decode attention and 2.2x speedup in prefill attention over FlashAttention-3 baseline on H100 GPUs while closely matching dense attention accuracy on long-context benchmarks such as LongBench and AIME-24.

Layer-wise normalization (LN) is an essential component of virtually all transformer-based large language models. While its effects on training stability are well documented, its role at inference time is poorly understood. Additionally, LN layers hinder mechanistic interpretability by introducing additional nonlinearities and increasing the interconnectedness of individual model components. Here, we show that all LN layers can be removed from every GPT-2 model with only a small increase in validation loss (e.g. +0.03 cross-entropy loss for GPT-2 XL). Thus, LN cannot play a substantial role in language modeling. We find that the amount of fine-tuning data needed for LN removal grows sublinearly with model parameters, suggesting scaling to larger models is feasible. We release a suite of LN-free GPT-2 models on Hugging Face. Furthermore, we test interpretability techniques on LN-free models. Direct logit attribution now gives the exact direct effect of individual components, while the accuracy of attribution patching does not significantly improve. We also confirm that GPT-2's "confidence neurons" are inactive in the LN-free models. Our work clarifies the role of LN layers in language modeling, showing that GPT-2-class models can function without LN layers. We hope that our LN-free analogs of the GPT-2 family of models will enable more precise interpretability research and improve our understanding of language models.

Steering the behavior of Large Language Models (LLMs) remains a challenge, particularly in engineering applications where precision and reliability are critical. While fine-tuning and prompting methods can modify model behavior, they lack the dynamic and exact control necessary for engineering applications. Inference-time intervention techniques provide a promising alternative, allowing targeted adjustments to LLM outputs. In this work, we demonstrate how interventions enable fine-grained control for automating the usually time-intensive requirement verification process in Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE). Using two early-stage Capella SysML models of space missions with associated requirements, we apply the intervened LLMs to reason over a graph representation of the model to determine whether a requirement is fulfilled. Our method achieves robust and reliable outputs, significantly improving over both a baseline model and a fine-tuning approach. By identifying and modifying as few as one to three specialised attention heads, we can significantly change the model's behavior. When combined with self-consistency, this allows us to achieve perfect precision on our holdout test set.

Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for learning from complex data and reasoning under uncertainty. It has been widely applied in machine learning tasks such as medical diagnosis, drug design, and policymaking. In these common applications, data can be highly sensitive. Differential privacy (DP) offers data analysis tools with powerful worst-case privacy guarantees and has been developed as the leading approach in privacy-preserving data analysis. In this paper, we study Metropolis-Hastings (MH), one of the most fundamental MCMC methods, for large-scale Bayesian inference under differential privacy. While most existing private MCMC algorithms sacrifice accuracy and efficiency to obtain privacy, we provide the first exact and fast DP MH algorithm, using only a minibatch of data in most iterations. We further reveal, for the first time, a three-way trade-off among privacy, scalability (i.e. the batch size), and efficiency (i.e. the convergence rate), theoretically characterizing how privacy affects the utility and computational cost in Bayesian inference. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our algorithm in various experiments.

Inference from large autoregressive models like Transformers is slow - decoding K tokens takes K serial runs of the model. In this work we introduce speculative decoding - an algorithm to sample from autoregressive models faster without any changes to the outputs, by computing several tokens in parallel. At the heart of our approach lie the observations that (1) hard language-modeling tasks often include easier subtasks that can be approximated well by more efficient models, and (2) using speculative execution and a novel sampling method, we can make exact decoding from the large models faster, by running them in parallel on the outputs of the approximation models, potentially generating several tokens concurrently, and without changing the distribution. Our method can accelerate existing off-the-shelf models without retraining or architecture changes. We demonstrate it on T5-XXL and show a 2X-3X acceleration compared to the standard T5X implementation, with identical outputs.

Toeplitz Neural Networks (TNNs) have exhibited outstanding performance in various sequence modeling tasks. They outperform commonly used Transformer-based models while benefiting from log-linear space-time complexities. On the other hand, State Space Models (SSMs) achieve lower performance than TNNs in language modeling but offer the advantage of constant inference complexity. In this paper, we aim to combine the strengths of TNNs and SSMs by converting TNNs to SSMs during inference, thereby enabling TNNs to achieve the same constant inference complexities as SSMs. To accomplish this, we formulate the conversion process as an optimization problem and provide a closed-form solution. We demonstrate how to transform the target equation into a Vandermonde linear system problem, which can be efficiently solved using the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT). Notably, our method requires no training and maintains numerical stability. It can be also applied to any LongConv-based model. To assess its effectiveness, we conduct extensive experiments on language modeling tasks across various settings. Additionally, we compare our method to other gradient-descent solutions, highlighting the superior numerical stability of our approach. The source code is available at https://github.com/OpenNLPLab/ETSC-Exact-Toeplitz-to-SSM-Conversion.

In this paper, we explain the inference logic of large language models (LLMs) as a set of symbolic concepts. Many recent studies have discovered that traditional DNNs usually encode sparse symbolic concepts. However, because an LLM has much more parameters than traditional DNNs, whether the LLM also encodes sparse symbolic concepts is still an open problem. Therefore, in this paper, we propose to disentangle the inference score of LLMs for dialogue tasks into a small number of symbolic concepts. We verify that we can use those sparse concepts to well estimate all inference scores of the LLM on all arbitrarily masking states of the input sentence. We also evaluate the transferability of concepts encoded by an LLM and verify that symbolic concepts usually exhibit high transferability across similar input sentences. More crucially, those symbolic concepts can be used to explain the exact reasons accountable for the LLM's prediction errors.

The cost of deploying vision transformers increasingly represents a barrier to wider industrial adoption. Existing compression requires additional end-to-end fine-tuning or incurs a significant drawback to runtime, thus making them ill-suited for online inference. We introduce the Visual Word Tokenizer (VWT), a training-free method for reducing energy costs while retaining performance and runtime. The VWT groups patches (visual subwords) that are frequently used into visual words while infrequent ones remain intact. To do so, intra-image or inter-image statistics are leveraged to identify similar visual concepts for compression. Experimentally, we demonstrate a reduction in wattage of up to 19% with only a 20% increase in runtime at most. Comparative approaches of 8-bit quantization and token merging achieve a lower or similar energy efficiency but exact a higher toll on runtime (up to 2times or more). Our results indicate that VWTs are well-suited for efficient online inference with a marginal compromise on performance.

Machine learning models can leak private information about their training data. The standard methods to measure this privacy risk, based on membership inference attacks (MIAs), only check if a given data point exactly matches a training point, neglecting the potential of similar or partially overlapping memorized data revealing the same private information. To address this issue, we introduce the class of range membership inference attacks (RaMIAs), testing if the model was trained on any data in a specified range (defined based on the semantics of privacy). We formulate the RaMIAs game and design a principled statistical test for its composite hypotheses. We show that RaMIAs can capture privacy loss more accurately and comprehensively than MIAs on various types of data, such as tabular, image, and language. RaMIA paves the way for more comprehensive and meaningful privacy auditing of machine learning algorithms.

Privacy attacks on Machine Learning (ML) models often focus on inferring the existence of particular data points in the training data. However, what the adversary really wants to know is if a particular individual's (subject's) data was included during training. In such scenarios, the adversary is more likely to have access to the distribution of a particular subject than actual records. Furthermore, in settings like cross-silo Federated Learning (FL), a subject's data can be embodied by multiple data records that are spread across multiple organizations. Nearly all of the existing private FL literature is dedicated to studying privacy at two granularities -- item-level (individual data records), and user-level (participating user in the federation), neither of which apply to data subjects in cross-silo FL. This insight motivates us to shift our attention from the privacy of data records to the privacy of data subjects, also known as subject-level privacy. We propose two novel black-box attacks for subject membership inference, of which one assumes access to a model after each training round. Using these attacks, we estimate subject membership inference risk on real-world data for single-party models as well as FL scenarios. We find our attacks to be extremely potent, even without access to exact training records, and using the knowledge of membership for a handful of subjects. To better understand the various factors that may influence subject privacy risk in cross-silo FL settings, we systematically generate several hundred synthetic federation configurations, varying properties of the data, model design and training, and the federation itself. Finally, we investigate the effectiveness of Differential Privacy in mitigating this threat.

Adaptive sparse coding methods learn a possibly overcomplete set of basis functions, such that natural image patches can be reconstructed by linearly combining a small subset of these bases. The applicability of these methods to visual object recognition tasks has been limited because of the prohibitive cost of the optimization algorithms required to compute the sparse representation. In this work we propose a simple and efficient algorithm to learn basis functions. After training, this model also provides a fast and smooth approximator to the optimal representation, achieving even better accuracy than exact sparse coding algorithms on visual object recognition tasks.

Transformer-based large language models (LLMs) are now deployed to hundreds of millions of users. LLM inference is commonly performed on batches of sequences that share a prefix, such as few-shot examples or a chatbot system prompt. Decoding in this large-batch setting can be bottlenecked by the attention operation, which reads large key-value (KV) caches from memory and computes inefficient matrix-vector products for every sequence in the batch. In this work, we introduce Hydragen, a hardware-aware exact implementation of attention with shared prefixes. Hydragen computes attention over the shared prefix and unique suffixes separately. This decomposition enables efficient prefix attention by batching queries together across sequences, reducing redundant memory reads and enabling the use of hardware-friendly matrix multiplications. Our method can improve end-to-end LLM throughput by up to 32x against competitive baselines, with speedup growing with the batch size and shared prefix length. Hydragen also enables the use of very long shared contexts: with a high batch size, increasing the prefix length from 1K to 16K tokens decreases Hydragen throughput by less than 15%, while the throughput of baselines drops by over 90%. Hydragen generalizes beyond simple prefix-suffix decomposition and can be applied to tree-based prompt sharing patterns, allowing us to further reduce inference time on competitive programming problems by 55%.

Adapting a pretrained diffusion model to new objectives at inference time remains an open problem in generative modeling. Existing steering methods suffer from inaccurate value estimation, especially at high noise levels, which biases guidance. Moreover, information from past runs is not reused to improve sample quality, resulting in inefficient use of compute. Inspired by the success of Monte Carlo Tree Search, we address these limitations by casting inference-time alignment as a search problem that reuses past computations. We introduce a tree-based approach that samples from the reward-aligned target density by propagating terminal rewards back through the diffusion chain and iteratively refining value estimates with each additional generation. Our proposed method, Diffusion Tree Sampling (DTS), produces asymptotically exact samples from the target distribution in the limit of infinite rollouts, and its greedy variant, Diffusion Tree Search (DTS^star), performs a global search for high reward samples. On MNIST and CIFAR-10 class-conditional generation, DTS matches the FID of the best-performing baseline with up to 10times less compute. In text-to-image generation and language completion tasks, DTS^star effectively searches for high reward samples that match best-of-N with up to 5times less compute. By reusing information from previous generations, we get an anytime algorithm that turns additional compute into steadily better samples, providing a scalable approach for inference-time alignment of diffusion models.

The growing demand for efficient Large Language Model (LLM) inference requires a holistic optimization on algorithms, systems, and hardware. However, very few works have fundamentally changed the generation pattern: each token needs one forward pass and one KV cache. This can be sub-optimal because we found that LLMs are extremely capable of self-identifying the exact dose of information that a single KV cache can store, and many tokens can be generated confidently without global context. Based on this insight, we introduce HAMburger, a Hierarchically Auto-regressive Model that redefines resource allocation in LLMs by moving beyond uniform computation and storage per token during inference. Stacking a compositional embedder and a micro-step decoder in between a base LLM, HAMburger smashes multiple tokens into a single KV and generates several tokens per step. Additionally, HAMburger functions as a speculative decoding framework where it can blindly trust self-drafted tokens. As a result, HAMburger shifts the growth of KV cache and forward FLOPs from linear to sub-linear with respect to output length, and adjusts its inference speed based on query perplexity and output structure. Extensive evaluations show that HAMburger reduces the KV cache computation by up to 2times and achieves up to 2times TPS, while maintaining quality in both short- and long-context tasks. Our method explores an extremely challenging inference regime that requires both computation- and memory-efficiency with a hardware-agnostic design.

While Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for reasoning under uncertainty, its widespread adoption is limited by the intractability of exact posterior computation, necessitating the use of approximate inference. However, existing methods are often computationally expensive, or demand costly retraining when priors change, limiting their utility, particularly in sequential inference problems such as real-time sensor fusion. To address these challenges, we introduce the Distribution Transformer -- a novel architecture that can learn arbitrary distribution-to-distribution mappings. Our method can be trained to map a prior to the corresponding posterior, conditioned on some dataset -- thus performing approximate Bayesian inference. Our novel architecture represents a prior distribution as a (universally-approximating) Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and transforms it into a GMM representation of the posterior. The components of the GMM attend to each other via self-attention, and to the datapoints via cross-attention. We demonstrate that Distribution Transformers both maintain flexibility to vary the prior, and significantly reduces computation times-from minutes to milliseconds-while achieving log-likelihood performance on par with or superior to existing approximate inference methods across tasks such as sequential inference, quantum system parameter inference, and Gaussian Process predictive posterior inference with hyperpriors.

Active inference is a first principles approach for understanding the brain in particular, and sentient agents in general, with the single imperative of minimizing free energy. As such, it provides a computational account for modelling artificial intelligent agents, by defining the agent's generative model and inferring the model parameters, actions and hidden state beliefs. However, the exact specification of the generative model and the hidden state space structure is left to the experimenter, whose design choices influence the resulting behaviour of the agent. Recently, deep learning methods have been proposed to learn a hidden state space structure purely from data, alleviating the experimenter from this tedious design task, but resulting in an entangled, non-interpreteable state space. In this paper, we hypothesize that such a learnt, entangled state space does not necessarily yield the best model in terms of free energy, and that enforcing different factors in the state space can yield a lower model complexity. In particular, we consider the problem of 3D object representation, and focus on different instances of the ShapeNet dataset. We propose a model that factorizes object shape, pose and category, while still learning a representation for each factor using a deep neural network. We show that models, with best disentanglement properties, perform best when adopted by an active agent in reaching preferred observations.

Autoregressive next token prediction language models offer powerful capabilities but face significant challenges in practical deployment due to the high computational and memory costs of inference, particularly during the decoding stage. We introduce Set Block Decoding (SBD), a simple and flexible paradigm that accelerates generation by integrating standard next token prediction (NTP) and masked token prediction (MATP) within a single architecture. SBD allows the model to sample multiple, not necessarily consecutive, future tokens in parallel, a key distinction from previous acceleration methods. This flexibility allows the use of advanced solvers from the discrete diffusion literature, offering significant speedups without sacrificing accuracy. SBD requires no architectural changes or extra training hyperparameters, maintains compatibility with exact KV-caching, and can be implemented by fine-tuning existing next token prediction models. By fine-tuning Llama-3.1 8B and Qwen-3 8B, we demonstrate that SBD enables a 3-5x reduction in the number of forward passes required for generation while achieving same performance as equivalent NTP training.

Diffusion models excel at joint pixel sampling for image generation but lack efficient training-free methods for partial conditional sampling (e.g., inpainting with known pixels). Prior work typically formulates this as an intractable inverse problem, relying on coarse variational approximations, heuristic losses requiring expensive backpropagation, or slow stochastic sampling. These limitations preclude: (1) accurate distributional matching in inpainting results, (2) efficient inference modes without gradient, (3) compatibility with fast ODE-based samplers. To address these limitations, we propose LanPaint: a training-free, asymptotically exact partial conditional sampling methods for ODE-based and rectified flow diffusion models. By leveraging carefully designed Langevin dynamics, LanPaint enables fast, backpropagation-free Monte Carlo sampling. Experiments demonstrate that our approach achieves superior performance with precise partial conditioning and visually coherent inpainting across diverse tasks.

Large scale deep learning model, such as modern language models and diffusion architectures, have revolutionized applications ranging from natural language processing to computer vision. However, their deployment in distributed or decentralized environments raises significant privacy concerns, as sensitive data may be exposed during inference. Traditional techniques like secure multi-party computation, homomorphic encryption, and differential privacy offer partial remedies but often incur substantial computational overhead, latency penalties, or limited compatibility with non-linear network operations. In this work, we introduce Equivariant Encryption (EE), a novel paradigm designed to enable secure, "blind" inference on encrypted data with near zero performance overhead. Unlike fully homomorphic approaches that encrypt the entire computational graph, EE selectively obfuscates critical internal representations within neural network layers while preserving the exact functionality of both linear and a prescribed set of non-linear operations. This targeted encryption ensures that raw inputs, intermediate activations, and outputs remain confidential, even when processed on untrusted infrastructure. We detail the theoretical foundations of EE, compare its performance and integration complexity against conventional privacy preserving techniques, and demonstrate its applicability across a range of architectures, from convolutional networks to large language models. Furthermore, our work provides a comprehensive threat analysis, outlining potential attack vectors and baseline strategies, and benchmarks EE against standard inference pipelines in decentralized settings. The results confirm that EE maintains high fidelity and throughput, effectively bridging the gap between robust data confidentiality and the stringent efficiency requirements of modern, large scale model inference.

Autoregressive decoding of large language models (LLMs) is memory bandwidth bounded, resulting in high latency and significant wastes of the parallel processing power of modern accelerators. Existing methods for accelerating LLM decoding often require a draft model (e.g., speculative decoding), which is nontrivial to obtain and unable to generalize. In this paper, we introduce Lookahead decoding, an exact, parallel decoding algorithm that accelerates LLM decoding without needing auxiliary models or data stores. It allows trading per-step log(FLOPs) to reduce the number of total decoding steps, is more parallelizable on single or multiple modern accelerators, and is compatible with concurrent memory-efficient attention (e.g., FlashAttention). Our implementation of Lookahead decoding can speed up autoregressive decoding by up to 1.8x on MT-bench and 4x with strong scaling on multiple GPUs in code completion tasks. Our code is avialable at https://github.com/hao-ai-lab/LookaheadDecoding

Conditional inference on joint textual and visual clues is a multi-modal reasoning task that textual clues provide prior permutation or external knowledge, which are complementary with visual content and pivotal to deducing the correct option. Previous methods utilizing pretrained vision-language models (VLMs) have achieved impressive performances, yet they show a lack of multimodal context reasoning capability, especially for text-modal information. To address this issue, we propose a Multi-modal Context Reasoning approach, named ModCR. Compared to VLMs performing reasoning via cross modal semantic alignment, it regards the given textual abstract semantic and objective image information as the pre-context information and embeds them into the language model to perform context reasoning. Different from recent vision-aided language models used in natural language processing, ModCR incorporates the multi-view semantic alignment information between language and vision by introducing the learnable alignment prefix between image and text in the pretrained language model. This makes the language model well-suitable for such multi-modal reasoning scenario on joint textual and visual clues. We conduct extensive experiments on two corresponding data sets and experimental results show significantly improved performance (exact gain by 4.8% on PMR test set) compared to previous strong baselines. Code Link: https://github.com/YunxinLi/Multimodal-Context-Reasoning.

Recent advances in inference-time compute have significantly improved performance on complex tasks by generating long chains of thought (CoTs) using Large Reasoning Models (LRMs). However, this improved accuracy comes at the cost of high inference latency due to the length of generated reasoning sequences and the autoregressive nature of decoding. Our key insight in tackling these overheads is that LRM inference, and the reasoning that it embeds, is highly tolerant of approximations: complex tasks are typically broken down into simpler steps, each of which brings utility based on the semantic insight it provides for downstream steps rather than the exact tokens it generates. Accordingly, we introduce SpecReason, a system that automatically accelerates LRM inference by using a lightweight model to (speculatively) carry out simpler intermediate reasoning steps and reserving the costly base model only to assess (and potentially correct) the speculated outputs. Importantly, SpecReason's focus on exploiting the semantic flexibility of thinking tokens in preserving final-answer accuracy is complementary to prior speculation techniques, most notably speculative decoding, which demands token-level equivalence at each step. Across a variety of reasoning benchmarks, SpecReason achieves 1.5-2.5times speedup over vanilla LRM inference while improving accuracy by 1.0-9.9\%. Compared to speculative decoding without SpecReason, their combination yields an additional 19.4-44.2\% latency reduction. We open-source SpecReason at https://github.com/ruipeterpan/specreason.

As the length of input text increases, the key-value (KV) cache in LLMs imposes prohibitive GPU memory costs and limits long-context inference on resource constrained devices. Existing approaches, such as KV quantization and pruning, reduce memory usage but suffer from numerical precision loss or suboptimal retention of key-value pairs. In this work, Low Rank Query and Key attention (LRQK) is introduced, a two-stage framework that jointly decomposes full-precision query and key matrices into compact rank-\(r\) factors during the prefill stage, and then employs these low-dimensional projections to compute proxy attention scores in \(O(lr)\) time at each decode step. By selecting only the top-\(k\) tokens and a small fixed set of recent tokens, LRQK employs a mixed GPU-CPU cache with a hit-and-miss mechanism where only missing full-precision KV pairs are transferred, thereby preserving exact attention outputs while reducing CPU-GPU data movement. Extensive experiments on the RULER and LongBench benchmarks with LLaMA-3-8B and Qwen2.5-7B demonstrate that LRQK matches or surpasses leading sparse-attention methods in long context settings, while delivering significant memory savings with minimal accuracy loss. Our code is available at https://github.com/tenghuilee/LRQK.

Failure attribution in multi-agent systems -- pinpointing the exact step where a decisive error occurs -- is a critical yet unsolved challenge. Current methods treat this as a pattern recognition task over long conversation logs, leading to critically low step-level accuracy (below 17\%), which renders them impractical for debugging complex systems. Their core weakness is a fundamental inability to perform robust counterfactual reasoning: to determine if correcting a single action would have actually averted the task failure. To bridge this counterfactual inference gap, we introduce Abduct-Act-Predict (A2P) Scaffolding, a novel agent framework that transforms failure attribution from pattern recognition into a structured causal inference task. A2P explicitly guides a large language model through a formal three-step reasoning process within a single inference pass: (1) Abduction, to infer the hidden root causes behind an agent's actions; (2) Action, to define a minimal corrective intervention; and (3) Prediction, to simulate the subsequent trajectory and verify if the intervention resolves the failure. This structured approach leverages the holistic context of the entire conversation while imposing a rigorous causal logic on the model's analysis. Our extensive experiments on the Who\&When benchmark demonstrate its efficacy. On the Algorithm-Generated dataset, A2P achieves 47.46\% step-level accuracy, a 2.85times improvement over the 16.67\% of the baseline. On the more complex Hand-Crafted dataset, it achieves 29.31\% step accuracy, a 2.43times improvement over the baseline's 12.07\%. By reframing the problem through a causal lens, A2P Scaffolding provides a robust, verifiable, and significantly more accurate solution for automated failure attribution. Ours code are released at https://github.com/ResearAI/A2P.

The Transformer architecture has become a cornerstone of modern artificial intelligence, but its core self-attention mechanism suffers from a complexity bottleneck that scales quadratically with sequence length, severely limiting its application in long-sequence tasks. To address this challenge, existing linear attention methods typically sacrifice model performance by relying on data-agnostic kernel approximations or restrictive context selection. This paper returns to the first principles of connectionism, starting from the topological structure of information flow, to introduce a novel linear attention architecture-TLinFormer. By reconfiguring neuron connection patterns, TLinFormer achieves strict linear complexity while computing exact attention scores and ensuring information flow remains aware of the full historical context. This design aims to bridge the performance gap prevalent between existing efficient attention methods and standard attention. Through a series of experiments, we systematically evaluate the performance of TLinFormer against a standard Transformer baseline on long-sequence inference tasks. The results demonstrate that TLinFormer exhibits overwhelming advantages in key metrics such as inference latency, KV cache efficiency, memory footprint, and overall speedup.

Fast approximations to matrix multiplication have the potential to dramatically reduce the cost of neural network inference. Recent work on approximate matrix multiplication proposed to replace costly multiplications with table-lookups by fitting a fast hash function from training data. In this work, we propose improvements to this previous work, targeted to the deep learning inference setting, where one has access to both training data and fixed (already learned) model weight matrices. We further propose a fine-tuning procedure for accelerating entire neural networks while minimizing loss in accuracy. Finally, we analyze the proposed method on a simple image classification task. While we show improvements to prior work, overall classification accuracy remains substantially diminished compared to exact matrix multiplication. Our work, despite this negative result, points the way towards future efforts to accelerate inner products with fast nonlinear hashing methods.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have grown rapidly in size, creating significant challenges for efficient deployment on resource-constrained hardware. In this paper, we introduce Dynamic-Length Float (DFloat11), a lossless compression framework that reduces LLM size by 30% while preserving outputs that are bit-for-bit identical to the original model. DFloat11 is motivated by the low entropy in the BFloat16 weight representation of LLMs, which reveals significant inefficiency in existing storage format. By applying entropy coding, DFloat11 assigns dynamic-length encodings to weights based on frequency, achieving near information-optimal compression without any loss of precision. To facilitate efficient inference with dynamic-length encodings, we develop a custom GPU kernel for fast online decompression. Our design incorporates the following: (i) decomposition of memory-intensive lookup tables (LUTs) into compact LUTs that fit in GPU SRAM, (ii) a two-phase kernel for coordinating thread read/write positions using lightweight auxiliary variables, and (iii) transformer-block-level decompression to minimize latency. Experiments on recent models, including Llama-3.1, Qwen-2.5, and Gemma-3, validates our hypothesis that DFloat11 achieves around 30% model size reduction while preserving bit-for-bit exact outputs. Compared to a potential alternative of offloading parts of an uncompressed model to the CPU to meet memory constraints, DFloat11 achieves 1.9-38.8x higher throughput in token generation. With a fixed GPU memory budget, DFloat11 enables 5.3-13.17x longer context lengths than uncompressed models. Notably, our method enables lossless inference of Llama-3.1-405B, an 810GB model, on a single node equipped with 8x80GB GPUs. Our code and models are available at https://github.com/LeanModels/DFloat11.

Discrete diffusion models have emerged as a powerful generative modeling framework for discrete data with successful applications spanning from text generation to image synthesis. However, their deployment faces challenges due to the high dimensionality of the state space, necessitating the development of efficient inference algorithms. Current inference approaches mainly fall into two categories: exact simulation and approximate methods such as tau-leaping. While exact methods suffer from unpredictable inference time and redundant function evaluations, tau-leaping is limited by its first-order accuracy. In this work, we advance the latter category by tailoring the first extension of high-order numerical inference schemes to discrete diffusion models, enabling larger step sizes while reducing error. We rigorously analyze the proposed schemes and establish the second-order accuracy of the theta-trapezoidal method in KL divergence. Empirical evaluations on GPT-2 level text and ImageNet-level image generation tasks demonstrate that our method achieves superior sample quality compared to existing approaches under equivalent computational constraints.

Satisfiability Modulo Counting (SMC) is a recently proposed general language to reason about problems integrating statistical and symbolic Artificial Intelligence. An SMC problem is an extended SAT problem in which the truth values of a few Boolean variables are determined by probabilistic inference. Approximate solvers may return solutions that violate constraints. Directly integrating available SAT solvers and probabilistic inference solvers gives exact solutions but results in slow performance because of many back-and-forth invocations of both solvers. We propose KOCO-SMC, an integrated exact SMC solver that efficiently tracks lower and upper bounds in the probabilistic inference process. It enhances computational efficiency by enabling early estimation of probabilistic inference using only partial variable assignments, whereas existing methods require full variable assignments. In the experiment, we compare KOCO-SMC with currently available approximate and exact SMC solvers on large-scale datasets and real-world applications. The proposed KOCO-SMC finds exact solutions with much less time.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are models that allow exact and tractable probabilistic inference. In contrast to neural networks, they are often assumed to be well-calibrated and robust to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. In this paper, we show that PCs are in fact not robust to OOD data, i.e., they don't know what they don't know. We then show how this challenge can be overcome by model uncertainty quantification. To this end, we propose tractable dropout inference (TDI), an inference procedure to estimate uncertainty by deriving an analytical solution to Monte Carlo dropout (MCD) through variance propagation. Unlike MCD in neural networks, which comes at the cost of multiple network evaluations, TDI provides tractable sampling-free uncertainty estimates in a single forward pass. TDI improves the robustness of PCs to distribution shift and OOD data, demonstrated through a series of experiments evaluating the classification confidence and uncertainty estimates on real-world data.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly evaluated on single-answer multiple-choice tasks, yet many real-world problems require identifying all correct answers from a set of options. This capability remains underexplored. We introduce SATA-BENCH, the first dedicated benchmark for evaluating LLMs on Select All That Apply (SATA) questions across diverse domains, including reading comprehension, law, and biomedicine. Our evaluation of 27 open-source and proprietary models reveals a significant gap: even the strongest model achieves only 41.8% exact match, exposing LLMs' inability to reliably identify all correct answers. We find that this weakness stems from two core challenges: selection bias - models favor certain choices regardless of content, and count bias - models fail to predict the correct number of answers. To address these issues, we propose Choice Funnel, a decoding strategy that combines token debiasing with adaptive thresholding to guide models toward complete and accurate selections. Choice Funnel achieves up to 29% higher exact match than competitive baselines while reducing inference cost by over 64%. Our findings expose fundamental limitations in current LLMs and introduce a new framework for diagnosing and improving multi-answer reasoning. We release SATA-BENCH and Choice Funnel to promote LLM development for robust decision-making in realistic, multi-answer applications.

Flow-based generative models are powerful exact likelihood models with efficient sampling and inference. Despite their computational efficiency, flow-based models generally have much worse density modeling performance compared to state-of-the-art autoregressive models. In this paper, we investigate and improve upon three limiting design choices employed by flow-based models in prior work: the use of uniform noise for dequantization, the use of inexpressive affine flows, and the use of purely convolutional conditioning networks in coupling layers. Based on our findings, we propose Flow++, a new flow-based model that is now the state-of-the-art non-autoregressive model for unconditional density estimation on standard image benchmarks. Our work has begun to close the significant performance gap that has so far existed between autoregressive models and flow-based models. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/aravindsrinivas/flowpp

We introduce a flexible framework that produces high-quality almost-exact matches for causal inference. Most prior work in matching uses ad-hoc distance metrics, often leading to poor quality matches, particularly when there are irrelevant covariates. In this work, we learn an interpretable distance metric for matching, which leads to substantially higher quality matches. The learned distance metric stretches the covariate space according to each covariate's contribution to outcome prediction: this stretching means that mismatches on important covariates carry a larger penalty than mismatches on irrelevant covariates. Our ability to learn flexible distance metrics leads to matches that are interpretable and useful for the estimation of conditional average treatment effects.

Existing techniques for accelerating language model inference, such as speculative decoding, require training auxiliary speculator models and building and deploying complex inference pipelines. We consider a new approach for converting a pretrained autoregressive language model from a slow single next token prediction model into a fast standalone multi-token prediction model using a simple online distillation objective. The final model retains the exact same implementation as the pretrained initial checkpoint and is deployable without the addition of any auxiliary verifier or other specialized inference code. On GSM8K, our method produces models that can decode more than 3times faster on average at <5% drop in accuracy relative to single token decoding performance.

A normalizing flow models a complex probability density as an invertible transformation of a simple base density. Flows based on either coupling or autoregressive transforms both offer exact density evaluation and sampling, but rely on the parameterization of an easily invertible elementwise transformation, whose choice determines the flexibility of these models. Building upon recent work, we propose a fully-differentiable module based on monotonic rational-quadratic splines, which enhances the flexibility of both coupling and autoregressive transforms while retaining analytic invertibility. We demonstrate that neural spline flows improve density estimation, variational inference, and generative modeling of images.

Generative models have recently started to outperform extractive models in Open Domain Question Answering, largely by leveraging their decoder to attend over multiple encoded passages and combining their information. However, generative models tend to be larger than extractive models due to the need for a decoder, run slower during inference due to auto-regressive decoder beam search, and their generated output often suffers from hallucinations. We propose to extend transformer encoders with the ability to fuse information from multiple passages, using global representation to provide cross-sample attention over all tokens across samples. Furthermore, we propose an alternative answer span probability calculation to better aggregate answer scores in the global space of all samples. Using our proposed method, we outperform the current state-of-the-art method by 2.5 Exact Match score on the Natural Question dataset while using only 25% of parameters and 35% of the latency during inference, and 4.4 Exact Match on WebQuestions dataset. When coupled with synthetic data augmentation, we outperform larger models on the TriviaQA dataset as well. The latency and parameter savings of our method make it particularly attractive for open-domain question answering, as these models are often compute-intensive.

Practical deployment of Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) demands strong test-time performance, motivating methods that guide inference-time search and selectively spend compute to improve quality. We present the Multi-Agent System Process Reward Model (MASPRM). It assigns per-action, per-agent values to partial inter-agent transcripts and acts as an inference-time controller. MASPRM is trained from multi-agent Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) rollouts without requiring step-level human annotations, by propagating returns to local targets. At inference, MASPRM guides step-level beam search and MCTS, focusing computation on promising branches and pruning early. On GSM8K and MATH, MASPRM-guided decoding with an outcome reward model (ORM) applied to the final answer, improves exact match (EM) over a single straight-through MAS pass by +30.7 and +22.9 points, respectively. A MASPRM trained on GSM8K transfers zero-shot to MATH without retraining, adding 8.4 EM points at the same budget. MASPRM is a plug-in value model that estimates per-agent progress and complements verifier-style decoders, enabling more reliable, compute-aware multi-agent reasoning. Code: https://github.com/milad1378yz/MASPRM

The success of language models in code assistance has spurred the proposal of repository-level code completion as a means to enhance prediction accuracy, utilizing the context from the entire codebase. However, this amplified context can inadvertently increase inference latency, potentially undermining the developer experience and deterring tool adoption - a challenge we termed the Context-Latency Conundrum. This paper introduces REPOFUSE, a pioneering solution designed to enhance repository-level code completion without the latency trade-off. REPOFUSE uniquely fuses two types of context: the analogy context, rooted in code analogies, and the rationale context, which encompasses in-depth semantic relationships. We propose a novel rank truncated generation (RTG) technique that efficiently condenses these contexts into prompts with restricted size. This enables REPOFUSE to deliver precise code completions while maintaining inference efficiency. Through testing with the CrossCodeEval suite, REPOFUSE has demonstrated a significant leap over existing models, achieving a 40.90% to 59.75% increase in exact match (EM) accuracy for code completions and a 26.8% enhancement in inference speed. Beyond experimental validation, REPOFUSE has been integrated into the workflow of a large enterprise, where it actively supports various coding tasks.

The growing popularity of neuro symbolic reasoning has led to the adoption of various forms of differentiable (i.e., fuzzy) first order logic. We introduce PyReason, a software framework based on generalized annotated logic that both captures the current cohort of differentiable logics and temporal extensions to support inference over finite periods of time with capabilities for open world reasoning. Further, PyReason is implemented to directly support reasoning over graphical structures (e.g., knowledge graphs, social networks, biological networks, etc.), produces fully explainable traces of inference, and includes various practical features such as type checking and a memory-efficient implementation. This paper reviews various extensions of generalized annotated logic integrated into our implementation, our modern, efficient Python-based implementation that conducts exact yet scalable deductive inference, and a suite of experiments. PyReason is available at: github.com/lab-v2/pyreason.

A promising class of generative models maps points from a simple distribution to a complex distribution through an invertible neural network. Likelihood-based training of these models requires restricting their architectures to allow cheap computation of Jacobian determinants. Alternatively, the Jacobian trace can be used if the transformation is specified by an ordinary differential equation. In this paper, we use Hutchinson's trace estimator to give a scalable unbiased estimate of the log-density. The result is a continuous-time invertible generative model with unbiased density estimation and one-pass sampling, while allowing unrestricted neural network architectures. We demonstrate our approach on high-dimensional density estimation, image generation, and variational inference, achieving the state-of-the-art among exact likelihood methods with efficient sampling.

Transforming two-dimensional (2D) images into three-dimensional (3D) volumes is a well-known yet challenging problem for the computer vision community. In the medical domain, a few previous studies attempted to convert two or more input radiographs into computed tomography (CT) volumes. Following their effort, we introduce a diffusion model-based technology that can rotate the anatomical content of any input radiograph in 3D space, potentially enabling the visualization of the entire anatomical content of the radiograph from any viewpoint in 3D. Similar to previous studies, we used CT volumes to create Digitally Reconstructed Radiographs (DRRs) as the training data for our model. However, we addressed two significant limitations encountered in previous studies: 1. We utilized conditional diffusion models with classifier-free guidance instead of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to achieve higher mode coverage and improved output image quality, with the only trade-off being slower inference time, which is often less critical in medical applications; and 2. We demonstrated that the unreliable output of style transfer deep learning (DL) models, such as Cycle-GAN, to transfer the style of actual radiographs to DRRs could be replaced with a simple yet effective training transformation that randomly changes the pixel intensity histograms of the input and ground-truth imaging data during training. This transformation makes the diffusion model agnostic to any distribution variations of the input data pixel intensity, enabling the reliable training of a DL model on input DRRs and applying the exact same model to conventional radiographs (or DRRs) during inference.

The Shapley value is widely regarded as a trustworthy attribution metric. However, when people use Shapley values to explain the attribution of input variables of a deep neural network (DNN), it usually requires a very high computational cost to approximate relatively accurate Shapley values in real-world applications. Therefore, we propose a novel network architecture, the HarsanyiNet, which makes inferences on the input sample and simultaneously computes the exact Shapley values of the input variables in a single forward propagation. The HarsanyiNet is designed on the theoretical foundation that the Shapley value can be reformulated as the redistribution of Harsanyi interactions encoded by the network.

The U-Net was presented in 2015. With its straight-forward and successful architecture it quickly evolved to a commonly used benchmark in medical image segmentation. The adaptation of the U-Net to novel problems, however, comprises several degrees of freedom regarding the exact architecture, preprocessing, training and inference. These choices are not independent of each other and substantially impact the overall performance. The present paper introduces the nnU-Net ('no-new-Net'), which refers to a robust and self-adapting framework on the basis of 2D and 3D vanilla U-Nets. We argue the strong case for taking away superfluous bells and whistles of many proposed network designs and instead focus on the remaining aspects that make out the performance and generalizability of a method. We evaluate the nnU-Net in the context of the Medical Segmentation Decathlon challenge, which measures segmentation performance in ten disciplines comprising distinct entities, image modalities, image geometries and dataset sizes, with no manual adjustments between datasets allowed. At the time of manuscript submission, nnU-Net achieves the highest mean dice scores across all classes and seven phase 1 tasks (except class 1 in BrainTumour) in the online leaderboard of the challenge.

Deterministic inference is a comforting ideal in classical software: the same program on the same input should always produce the same output. As large language models move into real-world deployment, this ideal has been imported wholesale into inference stacks. Recent work from the Thinking Machines Lab has presented a detailed analysis of nondeterminism in LLM inference, showing how batch-invariant kernels and deterministic attention can enforce bitwise-identical outputs, positioning deterministic inference as a prerequisite for reproducibility and enterprise reliability. In this paper, we take the opposite stance. We argue that, for LLMs, deterministic inference kills. It kills the ability to model uncertainty, suppresses emergent abilities, collapses reasoning into a single brittle path, and weakens safety alignment by hiding tail risks. LLMs implement conditional distributions over outputs, not fixed functions. Collapsing these distributions to a single canonical completion may appear reassuring, but it systematically conceals properties central to artificial cognition. We instead advocate Stochastic CHAOS, treating distributional variability as a signal to be measured and controlled. Empirically, we show that deterministic inference is systematically misleading. Single-sample deterministic evaluation underestimates both capability and fragility, masking failure probability under paraphrases and noise. Phase-like transitions associated with emergent abilities disappear under greedy decoding. Multi-path reasoning degrades when forced onto deterministic backbones, reducing accuracy and diagnostic insight. Finally, deterministic evaluation underestimates safety risk by hiding rare but dangerous behaviors that appear only under multi-sample evaluation.

Parameter inference, i.e. inferring the posterior distribution of the parameters of a statistical model given some data, is a central problem to many scientific disciplines. Generative models can be used as an alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for conducting posterior inference, both in likelihood-based and simulation-based problems. However, assessing the accuracy of posteriors encoded in generative models is not straightforward. In this paper, we introduce `Tests of Accuracy with Random Points' (TARP) coverage testing as a method to estimate coverage probabilities of generative posterior estimators. Our method differs from previously-existing coverage-based methods, which require posterior evaluations. We prove that our approach is necessary and sufficient to show that a posterior estimator is accurate. We demonstrate the method on a variety of synthetic examples, and show that TARP can be used to test the results of posterior inference analyses in high-dimensional spaces. We also show that our method can detect inaccurate inferences in cases where existing methods fail.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

Although the existing causal inference literature focuses on the forward-looking perspective by estimating effects of causes, the backward-looking perspective can provide insights into causes of effects. In backward-looking causal inference, the probability of necessity measures the probability that a certain event is caused by the treatment given the observed treatment and outcome. Most existing results focus on binary outcomes. Motivated by applications with ordinal outcomes, we propose a general definition of the probability of necessity. However, identifying the probability of necessity is challenging because it involves the joint distribution of the potential outcomes. We propose a novel assumption of monotonic incremental treatment effect to identify the probability of necessity with ordinal outcomes. We also discuss the testable implications of this key identification assumption. When it fails, we derive explicit formulas of the sharp large-sample bounds on the probability of necessity.

There is a substantial body of literature examining the mathematical reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), particularly their performance on precise arithmetic operations in autoregressive architectures. However, their ability to perform approximate reasoning in informal, fast-paced mathematical operations has received far less attention, especially among non-autoregressive decoder models. Our work addresses this gap by introducing StreetMath, a benchmark designed to evaluate models' approximation abilities under real-world approximation scenarios. We conduct extensive evaluations across different LLM architectures: Qwen3-4B-Instruct-2507, Qwen3-4B-Thinking-2507, Dream-v0-Instruct-7B, Falcon-Mamba-7B-Instruct, and Mamba-GPT-3B. Furthermore, we apply mechanistic interpretability techniques to probe their internal computational states. Our analysis reveals that LLMs generally attempt to compute exact values or invoke external tools even in tasks that call for approximation. Moreover, while models sometimes reach the correct answer in early layers or steps, they still consume more tokens when solving approximation tasks. Additional experiments indicate that exact and approximate arithmetic operations rely on largely separate neural components. Drawing upon research on cognitive psychology, we argue that LLMs do not exhibit cognitive miserliness in the same way humans do in street math settings. We open source our work https://github.com/ctseng777/StreetMath

Scaling the amount of compute used to train language models has dramatically improved their capabilities. However, when it comes to inference, we often limit the amount of compute to only one attempt per problem. Here, we explore inference compute as another axis for scaling by increasing the number of generated samples. Across multiple tasks and models, we observe that coverage - the fraction of problems solved by any attempt - scales with the number of samples over four orders of magnitude. In domains like coding and formal proofs, where all answers can be automatically verified, these increases in coverage directly translate into improved performance. When we apply repeated sampling to SWE-bench Lite, the fraction of issues solved with DeepSeek-V2-Coder-Instruct increases from 15.9% with one sample to 56% with 250 samples, outperforming the single-attempt state-of-the-art of 43% which uses more capable frontier models. Moreover, using current API pricing, amplifying the cheaper DeepSeek model with five samples is more cost-effective and solves more issues than paying a premium for one sample from GPT-4o or Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Interestingly, the relationship between coverage and the number of samples is often log-linear and can be modelled with an exponentiated power law, suggesting the existence of inference-time scaling laws. Finally, we find that identifying correct samples out of many generations remains an important direction for future research in domains without automatic verifiers. When solving math word problems from GSM8K and MATH, coverage with Llama-3 models grows to over 95% with 10,000 samples. However, common methods to pick correct solutions from a sample collection, such as majority voting or reward models, plateau beyond several hundred samples and fail to fully scale with the sample budget.

Despite extensive research on a wide range of question answering (QA) systems, most existing work focuses on answer containment-i.e., assuming that answers can be directly extracted and/or generated from documents in the corpus. However, some questions require inference, i.e., deriving answers that are not explicitly stated but can be inferred from the available information. We introduce Inferential QA -- a new task that challenges models to infer answers from answer-supporting passages which provide only clues. To study this problem, we construct QUIT (QUestions requiring Inference from Texts) dataset, comprising 7,401 questions and 2.4M passages built from high-convergence human- and machine-authored hints, labeled across three relevance levels using LLM-based answerability and human verification. Through comprehensive evaluation of retrievers, rerankers, and LLM-based readers, we show that methods effective on traditional QA tasks struggle in inferential QA: retrievers underperform, rerankers offer limited gains, and fine-tuning provides inconsistent improvements. Even reasoning-oriented LLMs fail to outperform smaller general-purpose models. These findings reveal that current QA pipelines are not yet ready for inference-based reasoning. Inferential QA thus establishes a new class of QA tasks that move towards understanding and reasoning from indirect textual evidence.

Reasoning models have achieved remarkable performance on tasks like math and logical reasoning thanks to their ability to search during reasoning. However, they still suffer from overthinking, often performing unnecessary reasoning steps even after reaching the correct answer. This raises the question: can models evaluate the correctness of their intermediate answers during reasoning? In this work, we study whether reasoning models encode information about answer correctness through probing the model's hidden states. The resulting probe can verify intermediate answers with high accuracy and produces highly calibrated scores. Additionally, we find models' hidden states encode correctness of future answers, enabling early prediction of the correctness before the intermediate answer is fully formulated. We then use the probe as a verifier to decide whether to exit reasoning at intermediate answers during inference, reducing the number of inference tokens by 24\% without compromising performance. These findings confirm that reasoning models do encode a notion of correctness yet fail to exploit it, revealing substantial untapped potential to enhance their efficiency.

We define a probabilistic programming language for Gaussian random variables with a first-class exact conditioning construct. We give operational, denotational and equational semantics for this language, establishing convenient properties like exchangeability of conditions. Conditioning on equality of continuous random variables is nontrivial, as the exact observation may have probability zero; this is Borel's paradox. Using categorical formulations of conditional probability, we show that the good properties of our language are not particular to Gaussians, but can be derived from universal properties, thus generalizing to wider settings. We define the Cond construction, which internalizes conditioning as a morphism, providing general compositional semantics for probabilistic programming with exact conditioning.

Recent research has generated hope that inference scaling could allow weaker language models to match or exceed the accuracy of stronger models, such as by repeatedly sampling solutions to a coding problem until it passes unit tests. The central thesis of this paper is that there is no free lunch for inference scaling: indefinite accuracy improvement through resampling can only be realized if the "verifier" (in this case, a set of unit tests) is perfect. When the verifier is imperfect, as it almost always is in domains such as reasoning or coding (for example, unit tests have imperfect coverage), there is a nonzero probability of false positives: incorrect solutions that pass the verifier. Resampling cannot decrease this probability, so it imposes an upper bound to the accuracy of resampling-based inference scaling even with an infinite compute budget. We find that there is a very strong correlation between the model's single-sample accuracy (i.e. accuracy without unit tests) and its false positive rate on coding benchmarks HumanEval and MBPP, whose unit tests have limited coverage. Therefore, no amount of inference scaling of weaker models can enable them to match the single-sample accuracy of a sufficiently strong model (Fig. 1a). When we consider that false positives have a negative utility compared to abstaining from producing a solution, it bends the inference scaling curve further downward. Empirically, we find that the optimal number of samples can be less than 10 under realistic assumptions (Fig. 1b). Finally, we show that beyond accuracy, false positives may have other undesirable qualities, such as poor adherence to coding style conventions.

Although Large Language Models (LLMs) achieve remarkable performance across various tasks, they often struggle with complex reasoning tasks, such as answering mathematical questions. Recent efforts to address this issue have primarily focused on leveraging mathematical datasets through supervised fine-tuning or self-improvement techniques. However, these methods often depend on high-quality datasets that are difficult to prepare, or they require substantial computational resources for fine-tuning. Inspired by findings that LLMs know how to produce the right answer but struggle to select the correct reasoning path, we propose a purely inference-based searching method -- MindStar (M*). This method formulates reasoning tasks as searching problems and proposes two search ideas to identify the optimal reasoning paths. We evaluate the M* framework on both the GSM8K and MATH datasets, comparing its performance with existing open and closed-source LLMs. Our results demonstrate that M* significantly enhances the reasoning abilities of open-source models, such as Llama-2-13B and Mistral-7B, and achieves comparable performance to GPT-3.5 and Grok-1, but with substantially reduced model size and computational costs.

Inference-time optimization scales computation to derive deliberate reasoning steps for effective performance. While previous search-based strategies address the short-sightedness of auto-regressive generation, the vast search space leads to excessive exploration and insufficient exploitation. To strike an efficient balance to derive the optimal step, we frame the decoding strategy as foresight sampling, leveraging simulated future steps to obtain globally optimal step estimation. Built on it, we propose a novel decoding strategy, named phi-Decoding. To provide a precise and expressive estimation of step value, phi-Decoding approximates two distributions via foresight and clustering. Sampling from the joint distribution, the optimal steps can be selected for exploitation. To support adaptive computation allocation, we propose in-width and in-depth pruning strategies, featuring a light-weight solution to achieve inference efficiency. Extensive experiments across seven benchmarks show phi-Decoding outperforms strong baselines in both performance and efficiency. Additional analysis demonstrates its generalization across various LLMs and scalability across a wide range of computing budgets. The code will be released at https://github.com/xufangzhi/phi-Decoding, and the open-source PyPI package is coming soon.

Reasoning is central to a wide range of intellectual activities, and while the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) continue to advance, their performance in reasoning tasks remains limited. The processes and mechanisms underlying reasoning are not yet fully understood, but key elements include path exploration, selection of relevant knowledge, and multi-step inference. Problems are solved through the synthesis of these components. In this paper, we propose a benchmark that focuses on a specific aspect of reasoning ability: the direct evaluation of multi-step inference. To this end, we design a special reasoning task where multi-step inference is specifically focused by largely eliminating path exploration and implicit knowledge utilization. Our dataset comprises pairs of explicit instructions and corresponding questions, where the procedures necessary for solving the questions are entirely detailed within the instructions. This setup allows models to solve problems solely by following the provided directives. By constructing problems that require varying numbers of steps to solve and evaluating responses at each step, we enable a thorough assessment of state-of-the-art LLMs' ability to follow instructions. To ensure the robustness of our evaluation, we include multiple distinct tasks. Furthermore, by comparing accuracy across tasks, utilizing step-aware metrics, and applying separately defined measures of complexity, we conduct experiments that offer insights into the capabilities and limitations of LLMs in reasoning tasks. Our findings have significant implications for the development of LLMs and highlight areas for future research in advancing their reasoning abilities. Our dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/ifujisawa/procbench and code at https://github.com/ifujisawa/proc-bench.

Explanatory inference is the creation and evaluation of hypotheses that provide explanations, and is sometimes known as abduction or abductive inference. Generative AI is a new set of artificial intelligence models based on novel algorithms for generating text, images, and sounds. This paper proposes a set of benchmarks for assessing the ability of AI programs to perform explanatory inference, and uses them to determine the extent to which ChatGPT, a leading generative AI model, is capable of making explanatory inferences. Tests on the benchmarks reveal that ChatGPT performs creative and evaluative inferences in many domains, although it is limited to verbal and visual modalities. Claims that ChatGPT and similar models are incapable of explanation, understanding, causal reasoning, meaning, and creativity are rebutted.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

Large language models (LLMs) are trained to imitate humans to explain human decisions. However, do LLMs explain themselves? Can they help humans build mental models of how LLMs process different inputs? To answer these questions, we propose to evaluate counterfactual simulatability of natural language explanations: whether an explanation can enable humans to precisely infer the model's outputs on diverse counterfactuals of the explained input. For example, if a model answers "yes" to the input question "Can eagles fly?" with the explanation "all birds can fly", then humans would infer from the explanation that it would also answer "yes" to the counterfactual input "Can penguins fly?". If the explanation is precise, then the model's answer should match humans' expectations. We implemented two metrics based on counterfactual simulatability: precision and generality. We generated diverse counterfactuals automatically using LLMs. We then used these metrics to evaluate state-of-the-art LLMs (e.g., GPT-4) on two tasks: multi-hop factual reasoning and reward modeling. We found that LLM's explanations have low precision and that precision does not correlate with plausibility. Therefore, naively optimizing human approvals (e.g., RLHF) may not be a sufficient solution.

We examine the reasoning and planning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) in solving complex tasks. Recent advances in inference-time techniques demonstrate the potential to enhance LLM reasoning without additional training by exploring intermediate steps during inference. Notably, OpenAI's o1 model shows promising performance through its novel use of multi-step reasoning and verification. Here, we explore how scaling inference-time techniques can improve reasoning and planning, focusing on understanding the tradeoff between computational cost and performance. To this end, we construct a comprehensive benchmark, known as Sys2Bench, and perform extensive experiments evaluating existing inference-time techniques on eleven diverse tasks across five categories, including arithmetic reasoning, logical reasoning, common sense reasoning, algorithmic reasoning, and planning. Our findings indicate that simply scaling inference-time computation has limitations, as no single inference-time technique consistently performs well across all reasoning and planning tasks.

Frontier reasoning models have exhibited incredible capabilities across a wide array of disciplines, driven by posttraining large language models (LLMs) with reinforcement learning (RL). However, despite the widespread success of this paradigm, much of the literature has been devoted to disentangling truly novel behaviors that emerge during RL but are not present in the base models. In our work, we approach this question from a different angle, instead asking whether comparable reasoning capabilites can be elicited from base models at inference time by pure sampling, without any additional training. Inspired by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques for sampling from sharpened distributions, we propose a simple iterative sampling algorithm leveraging the base models' own likelihoods. Over different base models, we show that our algorithm offers substantial boosts in reasoning that nearly match and even outperform those from RL on a wide variety of single-shot tasks, including MATH500, HumanEval, and GPQA. Moreover, our sampler avoids the collapse in diversity over multiple samples that is characteristic of RL-posttraining. Crucially, our method does not require training, curated datasets, or a verifier, suggesting broad applicability beyond easily verifiable domains.

Despite their impressive capabilities, large pre-trained language models (LMs) struggle with consistent reasoning; recently, prompting LMs to generate explanations that self-guide the inference has emerged as a promising direction to amend this. However, these approaches are fundamentally bounded by the correctness of explanations, which themselves are often noisy and inconsistent. In this work, we develop Maieutic Prompting, which infers a correct answer to a question even from the noisy and inconsistent generations of LM. Maieutic Prompting induces a tree of explanations abductively (e.g. X is true, because ...) and recursively, then frames the inference as a satisfiability problem over these explanations and their logical relations. We test Maieutic Prompting for true/false QA on three challenging benchmarks that require complex commonsense reasoning. Maieutic Prompting achieves up to 20% better accuracy than state-of-the-art prompting methods, and as a fully unsupervised approach, performs competitively with supervised models. We also show that Maieutic Prompting improves robustness in inference while providing interpretable rationales.

Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized the field of AI, demonstrating unprecedented capacity across various tasks. However, the inference process for LLMs comes with significant computational costs. In this paper, we propose an efficient LLM inference pipeline that harnesses the power of LLMs. Our approach begins by tapping into the potential of LLMs to accurately perceive and predict the response length with minimal overhead. By leveraging this information, we introduce an efficient sequence scheduling technique that groups queries with similar response lengths into micro-batches. We evaluate our approach on real-world instruction datasets using the LLaMA-based model, and our results demonstrate an impressive 86% improvement in inference throughput without compromising effectiveness. Notably, our method is orthogonal to other inference acceleration techniques, making it a valuable addition to many existing toolkits (e.g., FlashAttention, Quantization) for LLM inference.

Distribution inference, sometimes called property inference, infers statistical properties about a training set from access to a model trained on that data. Distribution inference attacks can pose serious risks when models are trained on private data, but are difficult to distinguish from the intrinsic purpose of statistical machine learning -- namely, to produce models that capture statistical properties about a distribution. Motivated by Yeom et al.'s membership inference framework, we propose a formal definition of distribution inference attacks that is general enough to describe a broad class of attacks distinguishing between possible training distributions. We show how our definition captures previous ratio-based property inference attacks as well as new kinds of attack including revealing the average node degree or clustering coefficient of a training graph. To understand distribution inference risks, we introduce a metric that quantifies observed leakage by relating it to the leakage that would occur if samples from the training distribution were provided directly to the adversary. We report on a series of experiments across a range of different distributions using both novel black-box attacks and improved versions of the state-of-the-art white-box attacks. Our results show that inexpensive attacks are often as effective as expensive meta-classifier attacks, and that there are surprising asymmetries in the effectiveness of attacks. Code is available at https://github.com/iamgroot42/FormEstDistRisks

Identifying how much a model {p}_{theta}(Y|X) knows about the stochastic real-world process p(Y|X) it was trained on is important to ensure it avoids producing incorrect or "hallucinated" answers or taking unsafe actions. But this is difficult for generative models because probabilistic predictions do not distinguish between per-response noise (aleatoric uncertainty) and lack of knowledge about the process (epistemic uncertainty), and existing epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques tend to be overconfident when the model underfits. We propose a general strategy for teaching a model to both approximate p(Y|X) and also estimate the remaining gaps between {p}_{theta}(Y|X) and p(Y|X): train it to predict pairs of independent responses drawn from the true conditional distribution, allow it to "cheat" by observing one response while predicting the other, then measure how much it cheats. Remarkably, we prove that being good at cheating (i.e. cheating whenever it improves your prediction) is equivalent to being second-order calibrated, a principled extension of ordinary calibration that allows us to construct provably-correct frequentist confidence intervals for p(Y|X) and detect incorrect responses with high probability. We demonstrate empirically that our approach accurately estimates how much models don't know across ambiguous image classification, (synthetic) language modeling, and partially-observable navigation tasks, outperforming existing techniques.

Modern large language models (LLMs) employ various forms of logical inference, both implicitly and explicitly, when addressing reasoning tasks. Understanding how to optimally leverage these inference paradigms is critical for advancing LLMs' reasoning capabilities. This paper adopts an exploratory approach by introducing a controlled evaluation environment for analogical reasoning -- a fundamental cognitive task -- that is systematically parameterized across three dimensions: modality (textual, visual, symbolic), difficulty (easy, medium, hard), and task format (multiple-choice or free-text generation). We analyze the comparative dynamics of inductive, abductive, and deductive inference pipelines across these dimensions, and demonstrate that our findings generalize to broader in-context learning tasks. Additionally, we investigate advanced paradigms such as hypothesis selection, verification, and refinement, revealing their potential to scale up logical inference in LLM reasoning. This exploratory study provides a foundation for future research in enhancing LLM reasoning through systematic logical inference strategies.

Among the hardest tasks for humans are those found in competitive programming where problems require sophisticated algorithmic thinking, puzzle solving, and the creation of effective code. As a domain to assess language models (LMs), it has not received enough attention, though. This study presents the ICPC benchmark, which consists of 254 international collegiate programming contest (ICPC) tasks. Each problem includes official analysis, reference code, and sample, high-quality unit, and hidden tests. We are able to develop and evaluate a variety of LM inference techniques for competitive programming with these resources. With zero-shot chain-of-thought prompting, we find that o1 only achieves a 19.1\% pass@1 solve rate. With our best inference technique, which combines multi-turn self-judge with reflection and retrieval over episodic information, raises this to 42.2\%. Furthermore, we conduct a new human-in-the-loop investigation to gain a deeper understanding of the remaining difficulties. Surprisingly, we discover that o1 can solve 17 out of 18 problems that were previously unsolvable by any model or technique with just a few specific instructions. A footstep toward LMs with grounded, imaginative, and algorithmic thinking is provided by our quantitative findings and qualitative research. We open-source our code and data at https://github.com/kraritt/zolve.

While there are numerous benchmarks comparing the performance of modern language models (LMs), end-task evaluations often conflate notions of *factual accuracy* ("truth") and *reasoning ability* ("rationality", or "honesty" in the sense of correctly reporting implications of beliefs). Our goal is a dataset that clearly distinguishes these two notions. Our approach is to leverage and extend a collection of human-annotated *entailment trees*, engineered to express both good and bad chains of reasoning, and using a mixture of true and false facts, in particular including counterfactual examples, to avoid belief bias (also known as the "content effect"). The resulting dataset, called BaRDa, contains 3000 entailments (1787 valid, 1213 invalid), using 6681 true and 2319 false statements. Testing on four GPT-series models, GPT3(curie)/GPT3(davinici)/3.5/4, we find factual accuracy (truth) scores of 74.1/80.6/82.6/87.1 and reasoning accuracy scores of 63.1/78.0/71.8/79.2. This shows the clear progression of models towards improved factual accuracy and entailment reasoning, and the dataset provides a new benchmark that more cleanly separates and quantifies these two notions.

The optimal training configurations of large language models (LLMs) with respect to model sizes and compute budgets have been extensively studied. But how to optimally configure LLMs during inference has not been explored in sufficient depth. We study compute-optimal inference: designing models and inference strategies that optimally trade off additional inference-time compute for improved performance. As a first step towards understanding and designing compute-optimal inference methods, we assessed the effectiveness and computational efficiency of multiple inference strategies such as Greedy Search, Majority Voting, Best-of-N, Weighted Voting, and their variants on two different Tree Search algorithms, involving different model sizes and computational budgets. We found that a smaller language model with a novel tree search algorithm typically achieves a Pareto-optimal trade-off. These results highlight the potential benefits of deploying smaller models equipped with more sophisticated decoding algorithms in budget-constrained scenarios, e.g., on end-devices, to enhance problem-solving accuracy. For instance, we show that the Llemma-7B model can achieve competitive accuracy to a Llemma-34B model on MATH500 while using 2times less FLOPs. Our findings could potentially apply to any generation task with a well-defined measure of success.

Inference-time scaling has emerged as a powerful alternative to parameter scaling for improving language model performance on complex reasoning tasks. While existing methods have shown strong performance gains under fixed compute budgets, there has been little focus on optimally utilizing that budget during inference. In this work, we introduce A*-decoding, a search-based inference-time strategy that builds on the A* search algorithm to optimally utilize a fixed compute budget by prioritizing high-quality reasoning paths during generation. We frame language model decoding as a structured search in a state space of partial solutions, applying the A* transition model to identify promising continuations guided by an external process supervision signal. In our experiments, A*-decoding reaches the performance levels of strong inference scaling baselines like best-of-N and particle filtering while using up to 3x fewer tokens and 30% fewer PRM passes under equivalent compute budgets. On the MATH500 and AIME 2024 benchmarks, A*-decoding enables Llama-3.2-1B-Instruct to match the performance of the 70x larger Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct, and allows Qwen3-1.7B to reach o1-like reasoning accuracy. These results highlight the power of structured search in decoding, offering an alternative to brute-force sampling or scale-driven gains. Our work demonstrates how thoughtful inference-time strategies can enhance reasoning in SLMs, pointing toward future advances in more efficient and scalable language model deployment.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated the ability to tackle increasingly complex tasks through advanced reasoning, long-form content generation, and tool use. Solving these tasks often involves long inference-time computations. In human problem solving, a common strategy to expedite work is collaboration: by dividing the problem into sub-tasks, exploring different strategies concurrently, etc. Recent research has shown that LLMs can also operate in parallel by implementing explicit cooperation frameworks, such as voting mechanisms or the explicit creation of independent sub-tasks that can be executed in parallel. However, each of these frameworks may not be suitable for all types of tasks, which can hinder their applicability. In this work, we propose a different design approach: we run LLM "workers" in parallel , allowing them to synchronize via a concurrently-updated attention cache and prompt these workers to decide how best to collaborate. Our approach allows the instances to come up with their own collaboration strategy for the problem at hand, all the while "seeing" each other's partial progress in the concurrent cache. We implement this approach via Hogwild! Inference: a parallel LLM inference engine where multiple instances of the same LLM run in parallel with the same attention cache, with "instant" access to each other's generated tokens. Hogwild! inference takes advantage of Rotary Position Embeddings (RoPE) to avoid recomputation while improving parallel hardware utilization. We find that modern reasoning-capable LLMs can perform inference with shared Key-Value cache out of the box, without additional fine-tuning.

Deductive reasoning plays a pivotal role in the formulation of sound and cohesive arguments. It allows individuals to draw conclusions that logically follow, given the truth value of the information provided. Recent progress in the domain of large language models (LLMs) has showcased their capability in executing deductive reasoning tasks. Nonetheless, a significant portion of research primarily assesses the accuracy of LLMs in solving such tasks, often overlooking a deeper analysis of their reasoning behavior. In this study, we draw upon principles from cognitive psychology to examine inferential strategies employed by LLMs, through a detailed evaluation of their responses to propositional logic problems. Our findings indicate that LLMs display reasoning patterns akin to those observed in humans, including strategies like supposition following or chain construction. Moreover, our research demonstrates that the architecture and scale of the model significantly affect its preferred method of reasoning, with more advanced models tending to adopt strategies more frequently than less sophisticated ones. Importantly, we assert that a model's accuracy, that is the correctness of its final conclusion, does not necessarily reflect the validity of its reasoning process. This distinction underscores the necessity for more nuanced evaluation procedures in the field.

Running LLMs with extended reasoning on every problem is expensive, but determining which inputs actually require additional compute remains challenging. We investigate whether their own likelihood of success is recoverable from their internal representations before generation, and if this signal can guide more efficient inference. We train linear probes on pre-generation activations to predict policy-specific success on math and coding tasks, substantially outperforming surface features such as question length and TF-IDF. Using E2H-AMC, which provides both human and model performance on identical problems, we show that models encode a model-specific notion of difficulty that is distinct from human difficulty, and that this distinction increases with extended reasoning. Leveraging these probes, we demonstrate that routing queries across a pool of models can exceed the best-performing model whilst reducing inference cost by up to 70\% on MATH, showing that internal representations enable practical efficiency gains even when they diverge from human intuitions about difficulty. Our code is available at: https://github.com/KabakaWilliam/llms_know_difficulty

Large language models (LLMs) are widely applied in chatbots, code generators, and search engines. Workloads such as chain-of-thought, complex reasoning, and agent services significantly increase the inference cost by invoking the model repeatedly. Optimization methods such as parallelism, compression, and caching have been adopted to reduce costs, but the diverse service requirements make it hard to select the right method. Recently, specialized LLM inference engines have emerged as a key component for integrating the optimization methods into service-oriented infrastructures. However, a systematic study on inference engines is still lacking. This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of 25 open-source and commercial inference engines. We examine each inference engine in terms of ease-of-use, ease-of-deployment, general-purpose support, scalability, and suitability for throughput- and latency-aware computation. Furthermore, we explore the design goals of each inference engine by investigating the optimization techniques it supports. In addition, we assess the ecosystem maturity of open source inference engines and handle the performance and cost policy of commercial solutions. We outline future research directions that include support for complex LLM-based services, support of various hardware, and enhanced security, offering practical guidance to researchers and developers in selecting and designing optimized LLM inference engines. We also provide a public repository to continually track developments in this fast-evolving field: https://github.com/sihyeong/Awesome-LLM-Inference-Engine

In their recent Nature Human Behaviour paper, "Emergent analogical reasoning in large language models," (Webb, Holyoak, and Lu, 2023) the authors argue that "large language models such as GPT-3 have acquired an emergent ability to find zero-shot solutions to a broad range of analogy problems." In this response, we provide counterexamples of the letter string analogies. In our tests, GPT-3 fails to solve even the easiest variants of the problems presented in the original paper. Zero-shot reasoning is an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence. We do not see that evidence in our experiments. To strengthen claims of humanlike reasoning such as zero-shot reasoning, it is important that the field develop approaches that rule out data memorization.

With the advancement of large language models (LLMs), solving complex reasoning tasks has gained increasing attention. Inference-time computation methods (e.g., Best-of-N, beam search, et al.) are particularly valuable as they can enhance reasoning performance without modifying model parameters or requiring additional training. However, these techniques come with implementation challenges, and most existing methods remain at the proof-of-concept stage with limited practical adoption due to their computational complexity and varying effectiveness across different tasks. In this paper, we investigate and benchmark diverse inference-time computation strategies across reasoning tasks of varying complexity. Since most current methods rely on a proposer-verifier pipeline that first generates candidate solutions (e.g., reasoning solutions) and then selects the best one based on reward signals (e.g., RLHF rewards, process rewards), our research focuses on optimizing both candidate solution generation (e.g., instructing prompts, hyperparameters such as temperature and top-p) and reward mechanisms (e.g., self-evaluation, reward types). Through extensive experiments (more than 20,000 A100-80G GPU hours with over 1,000 experiments) across a variety of models (e.g., Llama, Qwen, and Mistral families) of various sizes, our ablation studies reveal that previously overlooked strategies can significantly enhance performance (e.g., tuning temperature can improve reasoning task performance by up to 5%). Furthermore, we establish a standardized benchmark for inference-time computation by systematically evaluating six representative methods across eight reasoning tasks. These findings provide a stronger foundation for future research. The code is available at https://github.com/usail-hkust/benchmark_inference_time_computation_LLM

Circuits based on sum-product structure have become a ubiquitous representation to compactly encode knowledge, from Boolean functions to probability distributions. By imposing constraints on the structure of such circuits, certain inference queries become tractable, such as model counting and most probable configuration. Recent works have explored analyzing probabilistic and causal inference queries as compositions of basic operators to derive tractability conditions. In this paper, we take an algebraic perspective for compositional inference, and show that a large class of queries - including marginal MAP, probabilistic answer set programming inference, and causal backdoor adjustment - correspond to a combination of basic operators over semirings: aggregation, product, and elementwise mapping. Using this framework, we uncover simple and general sufficient conditions for tractable composition of these operators, in terms of circuit properties (e.g., marginal determinism, compatibility) and conditions on the elementwise mappings. Applying our analysis, we derive novel tractability conditions for many such compositional queries. Our results unify tractability conditions for existing problems on circuits, while providing a blueprint for analysing novel compositional inference queries.

This paper presents EasyRAG, a simple, lightweight, and efficient retrieval-augmented generation framework for automated network operations. Our framework has three advantages. The first is accurate question answering. We designed a straightforward RAG scheme based on (1) a specific data processing workflow (2) dual-route sparse retrieval for coarse ranking (3) LLM Reranker for reranking (4) LLM answer generation and optimization. This approach achieved first place in the GLM4 track in the preliminary round and second place in the GLM4 track in the semifinals. The second is simple deployment. Our method primarily consists of BM25 retrieval and BGE-reranker reranking, requiring no fine-tuning of any models, occupying minimal VRAM, easy to deploy, and highly scalable; we provide a flexible code library with various search and generation strategies, facilitating custom process implementation. The last one is efficient inference. We designed an efficient inference acceleration scheme for the entire coarse ranking, reranking, and generation process that significantly reduces the inference latency of RAG while maintaining a good level of accuracy; each acceleration scheme can be plug-and-play into any component of the RAG process, consistently enhancing the efficiency of the RAG system. Our code and data are released at https://github.com/BUAADreamer/EasyRAG.

Inference, especially those derived from inductive processes, is a crucial component in our conversation to complement the information implicitly or explicitly conveyed by a speaker. While recent large language models show remarkable advances in inference tasks, their performance in inductive reasoning, where not all information is present in the context, is far behind deductive reasoning. In this paper, we analyze the behavior of the models based on the task difficulty defined by the semantic information gap -- which distinguishes inductive and deductive reasoning (Johnson-Laird, 1988, 1993). Our analysis reveals that the disparity in information between dialogue contexts and desired inferences poses a significant challenge to the inductive inference process. To mitigate this information gap, we investigate a contrastive learning approach by feeding negative samples. Our experiments suggest negative samples help models understand what is wrong and improve their inference generations.

Deductive reasoning is the process of deriving conclusions strictly from the given premises, without relying on external knowledge. We define honesty in this setting as a model's ability to respond only when the conclusion is logically entailed by the premises, and to abstain otherwise. However, current language models often fail to reason honestly, producing unwarranted answers when the input is insufficient. To study this challenge, we formulate honest deductive reasoning as multi-step tasks where models must either derive the correct conclusion or abstain. We curate two datasets from graph structures, one for linear algebra and one for logical inference, and introduce unanswerable cases by randomly perturbing an edge in half of the instances. We find that prompting and existing training methods, including GRPO with or without supervised fine-tuning initialization, struggle on these tasks. In particular, GRPO optimize only for final task outcomes, leaving models vulnerable to collapse when negative rewards dominate early training. To address this, we propose ACNCHOR, a reinforcement learning method that injects ground truth trajectories into rollouts, preventing early training collapse. Our results demonstrate that this method stabilizes learning and significantly improves the overall reasoning performance, underscoring the importance of training dynamics for enabling honest deductive reasoning in language models.

Language models can store vast amounts of factual knowledge, but their ability to use this knowledge for logical reasoning remains questionable. This paper explores a language model's ability to manipulate its stored knowledge during inference. We focus on four manipulation types: retrieval (e.g., "What is person A's attribute X"), classification (e.g., "Is A's attribute X even or odd?"), comparison (e.g., "Is A greater than B in attribute X?") and inverse search (e.g., "Which person's attribute X equals T?") We observe that pre-trained language models like GPT2/3/4 excel in knowledge retrieval but struggle with simple classification or comparison tasks unless Chain of Thoughts (CoTs) are employed during both training and inference. They also perform poorly in inverse knowledge search, irrespective of the prompts. Our primary contribution is a synthetic dataset for a controlled experiment that confirms these inherent weaknesses: a language model cannot efficiently manipulate knowledge from pre-training data, even when such knowledge is perfectly stored and fully extractable in the models, and despite adequate instruct fine-tuning.

In domains with high stakes such as law, recruitment, and healthcare, learning models frequently rely on sensitive user data for inference, necessitating the complete set of features. This not only poses significant privacy risks for individuals but also demands substantial human effort from organizations to verify information accuracy. This paper asks whether it is necessary to use all input features for accurate predictions at inference time. The paper demonstrates that, in a personalized setting, individuals may only need to disclose a small subset of their features without compromising decision-making accuracy. The paper also provides an efficient sequential algorithm to determine the appropriate attributes for each individual to provide. Evaluations across various learning tasks show that individuals can potentially report as little as 10\% of their information while maintaining the same accuracy level as a model that employs the full set of user information.

Reasoning models have demonstrated remarkable progress in solving complex and logic-intensive tasks by generating extended Chain-of-Thoughts (CoTs) prior to arriving at a final answer. Yet, the emergence of this "slow-thinking" paradigm, with numerous tokens generated in sequence, inevitably introduces substantial computational overhead. To this end, it highlights an urgent need for effective acceleration. This survey aims to provide a comprehensive overview of recent advances in efficient reasoning. It categorizes existing works into three key directions: (1) shorter - compressing lengthy CoTs into concise yet effective reasoning chains; (2) smaller - developing compact language models with strong reasoning capabilities through techniques such as knowledge distillation, other model compression techniques, and reinforcement learning; and (3) faster - designing efficient decoding strategies to accelerate inference. A curated collection of papers discussed in this survey is available in our GitHub repository.

Fine-tuned language models use greedy decoding to answer reading comprehension questions with relative success. However, this approach does not ensure that the answer is a span in the given passage, nor does it guarantee that it is the most probable one. Does greedy decoding actually perform worse than an algorithm that does adhere to these properties? To study the performance and optimality of greedy decoding, we present exact-extract, a decoding algorithm that efficiently finds the most probable answer span in the context. We compare the performance of T5 with both decoding algorithms on zero-shot and few-shot extractive question answering. When no training examples are available, exact-extract significantly outperforms greedy decoding. However, greedy decoding quickly converges towards the performance of exact-extract with the introduction of a few training examples, becoming more extractive and increasingly likelier to generate the most probable span as the training set grows. We also show that self-supervised training can bias the model towards extractive behavior, increasing performance in the zero-shot setting without resorting to annotated examples. Overall, our results suggest that pretrained language models are so good at adapting to extractive question answering, that it is often enough to fine-tune on a small training set for the greedy algorithm to emulate the optimal decoding strategy.

Predictive models often need to work with incomplete information in real-world tasks. Consequently, they must provide reliable probability or confidence estimation, especially in large-scale decision-making and planning tasks. Current large language models (LLMs) are insufficient for accurate estimations, but they can generate relevant factors that may affect the probabilities, produce coarse-grained probabilities when the information is more complete, and help determine which factors are relevant to specific downstream contexts. In this paper, we make use of these capabilities of LLMs to provide a significantly more accurate probabilistic estimation. We propose BIRD, a novel probabilistic inference framework that aligns a Bayesian network with LLM abductions and then estimates more accurate probabilities in a deduction step. We show BIRD provides reliable probability estimations that are 30% better than those provided directly by LLM baselines. These estimates further contribute to better and more trustworthy decision making.

The scarcity of high-quality, logically sound data is a critical bottleneck for advancing the mathematical reasoning of Large Language Models (LLMs). Our work confronts this challenge by turning decades of automated theorem proving research into a scalable data engine. Rather than relying on error-prone LLMs or complex proof-assistant syntax like Lean and Isabelle, our framework leverages E-prover's saturation capabilities on the vast TPTP axiom library to derive a massive, guaranteed-valid corpus of theorems. Our pipeline is principled and simple: saturate axioms, filter for "interesting" theorems, and generate tasks. With no LLMs in the loop, we eliminate factual errors by construction. This purely symbolic data is then transformed into three difficulty-controlled challenges: entailment verification, premise selection, and proof reconstruction. Our zero-shot experiments on frontier models reveal a clear weakness: performance collapses on tasks requiring deep, structural reasoning. Our framework provides both the diagnostic tool to measure this gap and a scalable source of symbolic training data to address it. We make the code and data publicly available. https://github.com/sileod/reasoning_core https://hf.co/datasets/reasoning-core/rc1

We propose a new localized inference algorithm for answering marginalization queries in large graphical models with the correlation decay property. Given a query variable and a large graphical model, we define a much smaller model in a local region around the query variable in the target model so that the marginal distribution of the query variable can be accurately approximated. We introduce two approximation error bounds based on the Dobrushin's comparison theorem and apply our bounds to derive a greedy expansion algorithm that efficiently guides the selection of neighbor nodes for localized inference. We verify our theoretical bounds on various datasets and demonstrate that our localized inference algorithm can provide fast and accurate approximation for large graphical models.

Recent generations of language models have introduced Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) that generate detailed thinking processes before providing answers. While these models demonstrate improved performance on reasoning benchmarks, their fundamental capabilities, scaling properties, and limitations remain insufficiently understood. Current evaluations primarily focus on established math and coding benchmarks, emphasizing final answer accuracy. However, this evaluation paradigm often suffers from contamination and does not provide insights into the reasoning traces. In this work, we systematically investigate these gaps with the help of controllable puzzle environments that allow precise manipulation of complexity while maintaining consistent logical structures. This setup enables the analysis of not only final answers but also the internal reasoning traces, offering insights into how LRMs think. Through extensive experiments, we show that LRMs face a complete accuracy collapse beyond certain complexities. Moreover, they exhibit a counterintuitive scaling limit: their reasoning effort increases with problem complexity up to a point, then declines despite having remaining token budget. By comparing LRMs with their standard LLM counterparts under same inference compute, we identify three performance regimes: (1) low-complexity tasks where standard models outperform LRMs, (2) medium-complexity tasks where LRMs demonstrates advantage, and (3) high-complexity tasks where both models face complete collapse. We found that LRMs have limitations in exact computation: they fail to use explicit algorithms and reason inconsistently across scales. We also investigate the reasoning traces in more depth, studying the patterns of explored solutions and analyzing the models' computational behavior, shedding light on their strengths, limitations, and raising questions about their reasoning capabilities.

As demand for LLM inference grows, it is becoming increasingly important that providers and their customers can verify that inference processes are performed correctly, without errors or tampering. However, re-running the same inference process twice often leads to different results due to benign numerical noise, making it difficult to distinguish legitimate variation from actual problems. To address this problem, we introduce Token-DiFR (Token-Divergence-From-Reference), a method for verifying inference outputs by comparing generated tokens against predictions made by a trusted reference implementation conditioned on the same random seed. Sampling seed synchronization tightly constrains valid outputs, leaving providers minimal room to deviate from correct inference, which allows output tokens themselves to serve as auditable evidence of correctness at zero additional cost to the provider. Token-DiFR reliably identifies sampling errors, simulated bugs, and model quantization, detecting 4-bit quantization with AUC > 0.999 within 300 output tokens. For applications requiring sample-efficient forward-pass verification, we additionally introduce Activation-DiFR, a scheme that uses random orthogonal projections to compress activations into compact fingerprints for subsequent verification. Activation-DiFR detects 4-bit quantization with AUC > 0.999 using just 2 output tokens, while reducing communication overhead by 25-75% relative to existing methods. We release an open-source integration with vLLM to accelerate practical deployment of verifiable inference.

Stepwise inference protocols, such as scratchpads and chain-of-thought, help language models solve complex problems by decomposing them into a sequence of simpler subproblems. Despite the significant gain in performance achieved via these protocols, the underlying mechanisms of stepwise inference have remained elusive. To address this, we propose to study autoregressive Transformer models on a synthetic task that embodies the multi-step nature of problems where stepwise inference is generally most useful. Specifically, we define a graph navigation problem wherein a model is tasked with traversing a path from a start to a goal node on the graph. Despite is simplicity, we find we can empirically reproduce and analyze several phenomena observed at scale: (i) the stepwise inference reasoning gap, the cause of which we find in the structure of the training data; (ii) a diversity-accuracy tradeoff in model generations as sampling temperature varies; (iii) a simplicity bias in the model's output; and (iv) compositional generalization and a primacy bias with in-context exemplars. Overall, our work introduces a grounded, synthetic framework for studying stepwise inference and offers mechanistic hypotheses that can lay the foundation for a deeper understanding of this phenomenon.

Multiple types of inference are available for probabilistic graphical models, e.g., marginal, maximum-a-posteriori, and even marginal maximum-a-posteriori. Which one do researchers mean when they talk about ``planning as inference''? There is no consistency in the literature, different types are used, and their ability to do planning is further entangled with specific approximations or additional constraints. In this work we use the variational framework to show that, just like all commonly used types of inference correspond to different weightings of the entropy terms in the variational problem, planning corresponds exactly to a different set of weights. This means that all the tricks of variational inference are readily applicable to planning. We develop an analogue of loopy belief propagation that allows us to perform approximate planning in factored-state Markov decisions processes without incurring intractability due to the exponentially large state space. The variational perspective shows that the previous types of inference for planning are only adequate in environments with low stochasticity, and allows us to characterize each type by its own merits, disentangling the type of inference from the additional approximations that its practical use requires. We validate these results empirically on synthetic MDPs and tasks posed in the International Planning Competition.

How do we most effectively treat a disease or condition? Ideally, we could consult a database of evidence gleaned from clinical trials to answer such questions. Unfortunately, no such database exists; clinical trial results are instead disseminated primarily via lengthy natural language articles. Perusing all such articles would be prohibitively time-consuming for healthcare practitioners; they instead tend to depend on manually compiled systematic reviews of medical literature to inform care. NLP may speed this process up, and eventually facilitate immediate consult of published evidence. The Evidence Inference dataset was recently released to facilitate research toward this end. This task entails inferring the comparative performance of two treatments, with respect to a given outcome, from a particular article (describing a clinical trial) and identifying supporting evidence. For instance: Does this article report that chemotherapy performed better than surgery for five-year survival rates of operable cancers? In this paper, we collect additional annotations to expand the Evidence Inference dataset by 25\%, provide stronger baseline models, systematically inspect the errors that these make, and probe dataset quality. We also release an abstract only (as opposed to full-texts) version of the task for rapid model prototyping. The updated corpus, documentation, and code for new baselines and evaluations are available at http://evidence-inference.ebm-nlp.com/.

The capabilities and adoption of deep neural networks (DNNs) grow at an exhilarating pace: Vision models accurately classify human actions in videos and identify cancerous tissue in medical scans as precisely than human experts; large language models answer wide-ranging questions, generate code, and write prose, becoming the topic of everyday dinner-table conversations. Even though their uses are exhilarating, the continually increasing model sizes and computational complexities have a dark side. The economic cost and negative environmental externalities of training and serving models is in evident disharmony with financial viability and climate action goals. Instead of pursuing yet another increase in predictive performance, this dissertation is dedicated to the improvement of neural network efficiency. Specifically, a core contribution addresses the efficiency aspects during online inference. Here, the concept of Continual Inference Networks (CINs) is proposed and explored across four publications. CINs extend prior state-of-the-art methods developed for offline processing of spatio-temporal data and reuse their pre-trained weights, improving their online processing efficiency by an order of magnitude. These advances are attained through a bottom-up computational reorganization and judicious architectural modifications. The benefit to online inference is demonstrated by reformulating several widely used network architectures into CINs, including 3D CNNs, ST-GCNs, and Transformer Encoders. An orthogonal contribution tackles the concurrent adaptation and computational acceleration of a large source model into multiple lightweight derived models. Drawing on fusible adapter networks and structured pruning, Structured Pruning Adapters achieve superior predictive accuracy under aggressive pruning using significantly fewer learned weights compared to fine-tuning with pruning.

Membership inference attacks aim to detect if a particular data point was used in training a model. We design a novel statistical test to perform robust membership inference attacks (RMIA) with low computational overhead. We achieve this by a fine-grained modeling of the null hypothesis in our likelihood ratio tests, and effectively leveraging both reference models and reference population data samples. RMIA has superior test power compared with prior methods, throughout the TPR-FPR curve (even at extremely low FPR, as low as 0). Under computational constraints, where only a limited number of pre-trained reference models (as few as 1) are available, and also when we vary other elements of the attack (e.g., data distribution), our method performs exceptionally well, unlike prior attacks that approach random guessing. RMIA lays the groundwork for practical yet accurate data privacy risk assessment in machine learning.

Conformal prediction has shown spurring performance in constructing statistically rigorous prediction sets for arbitrary black-box machine learning models, assuming the data is exchangeable. However, even small adversarial perturbations during the inference can violate the exchangeability assumption, challenge the coverage guarantees, and result in a subsequent decline in empirical coverage. In this work, we propose a certifiably robust learning-reasoning conformal prediction framework (COLEP) via probabilistic circuits, which comprise a data-driven learning component that trains statistical models to learn different semantic concepts, and a reasoning component that encodes knowledge and characterizes the relationships among the trained models for logic reasoning. To achieve exact and efficient reasoning, we employ probabilistic circuits (PCs) within the reasoning component. Theoretically, we provide end-to-end certification of prediction coverage for COLEP in the presence of bounded adversarial perturbations. We also provide certified coverage considering the finite size of the calibration set. Furthermore, we prove that COLEP achieves higher prediction coverage and accuracy over a single model as long as the utilities of knowledge models are non-trivial. Empirically, we show the validity and tightness of our certified coverage, demonstrating the robust conformal prediction of COLEP on various datasets, including GTSRB, CIFAR10, and AwA2. We show that COLEP achieves up to 12% improvement in certified coverage on GTSRB, 9% on CIFAR-10, and 14% on AwA2.

Traditional language model-based theorem proving assumes that by training on a sufficient amount of formal proof data, a model will learn to prove theorems. Our key observation is that a wealth of informal information that is not present in formal proofs can be useful for learning to prove theorems. For instance, humans think through steps of a proof, but this thought process is not visible in the resulting code. We present Lean-STaR, a framework for training language models to produce informal thoughts prior to each step of a proof, thereby boosting the model's theorem-proving capabilities. Lean-STaR uses retrospective ground-truth tactics to generate synthetic thoughts for training the language model. At inference time, the trained model directly generates the thoughts prior to the prediction of the tactics in each proof step. Building on the self-taught reasoner framework, we then apply expert iteration to further fine-tune the model on the correct proofs it samples and verifies using the Lean solver. Lean-STaR achieves state-of-the-art results on the miniF2F-test benchmark within the Lean theorem proving environment, significantly outperforming base models (43.4% rightarrow 46.3%, Pass@64). We also analyze the impact of the augmented thoughts on various aspects of the theorem proving process, providing insights into their effectiveness.

Ensuring factuality is essential for the safe use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains such as medicine and law. Conformal inference provides distribution-free guarantees, but existing approaches are either overly conservative, discarding many true-claims, or rely on adaptive error rates and simple linear models that fail to capture complex group structures. To address these challenges, we reformulate conformal inference in a multiplicative filtering setting, modeling factuality as a product of claim-level scores. Our method, Multi-LLM Adaptive Conformal Inference (MACI), leverages ensembles to produce more accurate factuality-scores, which in our experiments led to higher retention, while validity is preserved through group-conditional calibration. Experiments show that MACI consistently achieves user-specified coverage with substantially higher retention and lower time cost than baselines. Our repository is available at https://github.com/MLAI-Yonsei/MACI

Reasoning has become a central paradigm for large language models (LLMs), consistently boosting accuracy across diverse benchmarks. Yet its suitability for precision-sensitive tasks remains unclear. We present the first systematic study of reasoning for classification tasks under strict low false positive rate (FPR) regimes. Our analysis covers two tasks--safety detection and hallucination detection--evaluated in both fine-tuned and zero-shot settings, using standard LLMs and Large Reasoning Models (LRMs). Our results reveal a clear trade-off: Think On (reasoning-augmented) generation improves overall accuracy, but underperforms at the low-FPR thresholds essential for practical use. In contrast, Think Off (no reasoning during inference) dominates in these precision-sensitive regimes, with Think On surpassing only when higher FPRs are acceptable. In addition, we find token-based scoring substantially outperforms self-verbalized confidence for precision-sensitive deployments. Finally, a simple ensemble of the two modes recovers the strengths of each. Taken together, our findings position reasoning as a double-edged tool: beneficial for average accuracy, but often ill-suited for applications requiring strict precision.

We combine beam search with the probabilistic pruning technique of nucleus sampling to create two deterministic nucleus search algorithms for natural language generation. The first algorithm, p-exact search, locally prunes the next-token distribution and performs an exact search over the remaining space. The second algorithm, dynamic beam search, shrinks and expands the beam size according to the entropy of the candidate's probability distribution. Despite the probabilistic intuition behind nucleus search, experiments on machine translation and summarization benchmarks show that both algorithms reach the same performance levels as standard beam search.

The mechanism by which RL contributes to reasoning capabilities-whether it incentivizes the synthesis of new skills or merely amplifies existing behaviors-remains a subject of intense debate. In this work, we investigate this question through the lens of Complementary Reasoning, a complex task that requires integrating internal parametric knowledge with external contextual information. Using a controlled synthetic dataset of human biographies, we strictly decouple this ability into two atomic skills: Parametric Reasoning (relying on internal knowledge) and Contextual Reasoning (depending on external information). To rigorously assess capability boundaries, we evaluate generalization across three distinct levels of difficulty: I.I.D., Composition, and Zero-shot settings. We find that while SFT is sufficient for in-distribution performance, it struggles with O.O.D. generalization, particularly in Zero-shot settings where relational combinations are novel. Crucially, we identify the SFT Generalization Paradox: Models supervised solely on the composite task achieve near-perfect in-distribution accuracy but collapse on out-of-distribution generalization, indicating their reliance on rote memorization of path shortcuts. In contrast, we find that RL acts as a reasoning synthesizer rather than a probability amplifier. However, we uncover a strict atomic prerequisite: RL can only synthesize these complex strategies if the base model has first mastered the independent atomic skills (Parametric and Contextual) via SFT. These findings challenge the view of RL as a mere amplifier, suggesting that given sufficient atomic foundations, RL can actively synthesize complex reasoning strategies from learned primitives without explicit supervision on such complex strategies. This indicates that decoupled atomic training followed by RL offers a scalable path to generalization for complex reasoning tasks.

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restriction has a significant impact on the quality of inferences made using variational methods. We introduce a new approach for specifying flexible, arbitrarily complex and scalable approximate posterior distributions. Our approximations are distributions constructed through a normalizing flow, whereby a simple initial density is transformed into a more complex one by applying a sequence of invertible transformations until a desired level of complexity is attained. We use this view of normalizing flows to develop categories of finite and infinitesimal flows and provide a unified view of approaches for constructing rich posterior approximations. We demonstrate that the theoretical advantages of having posteriors that better match the true posterior, combined with the scalability of amortized variational approaches, provides a clear improvement in performance and applicability of variational inference.

The surprisingly likely criterion in the seminal work of Prelec (the Bayesian Truth Serum) guarantees truthfulness in a game-theoretic multi-agent setting, by rewarding rational agents to maximise the expected information gain with their answers w.r.t. their probabilistic beliefs. We investigate the relevance of a similar criterion for responses of LLMs. We hypothesize that if the surprisingly likely criterion works in LLMs, under certain conditions, the responses that maximize the reward under this criterion should be more accurate than the responses that only maximize the posterior probability. Using benchmarks including the TruthfulQA benchmark and using openly available LLMs: GPT-2 and LLaMA-2, we show that the method indeed improves the accuracy significantly (for example, upto 24 percentage points aggregate improvement on TruthfulQA and upto 70 percentage points improvement on individual categories of questions).