Daily Papers

Microbial swarming on mucosal surfaces reshapes microbial communities and influences mucosal healing and antibiotic tolerance. Yet even with time-lapse microscopy and deep learning, analyses of swarming colonies remain descriptive and cannot forecast how their fronts reorganize in time. This limitation is significant because the advancing edge determines access to nutrients, host tissue and competing microbes. We recast the expansion of Enterobacter sp. SM3 swarms as a problem of morphological forecasting, and assemble SwarmEvo, a time-lapse dataset represented as boundary-resolved segmentations. TexPol--Net, a texture- and geometry-aware segmentation model, sharpens diffuse edges and preserves fingered fronts, creating a stable substrate for dynamics. On this representation, we develop Morpher, an autoregressive forecasting network with a ``Morphon'' memory that links local curvature to long-range temporal dependencies. Morpher outperforms leading video-prediction models in maintaining front localization and anisotropic branching, and modest segmentation improvements yield noticeably more stable forecasts. Ablations across sequence models, inference strategies and observation ratios show that attention-based architectures with structural memory best preserve dense-finger propagation. By uniting geometry-aware segmentation with morphology-level forecasting, this framework turns swarming expansion into a predictive dynamical system, enabling quantitative interrogation and potential control of microbial collectives during mucosal repair and gut ecosystem engineering.

This study investigates the impact of morphological typology on tokenization and language modeling performance. We focus on languages with synthetic and analytical morphological structures and examine their productivity when tokenized using the byte-pair encoding (BPE) algorithm. We compare the performance of models trained with similar amounts of data in different languages. Our experiments reveal that languages with synthetic features exhibit greater subword regularity and productivity with BPE tokenization and achieve better results in language modeling tasks. We also observe that the typological continuum from linguistic theory is reflected in several experiments. These findings suggest a correlation between morphological typology and BPE tokenization efficiency.

Lemmatization is a natural language processing (NLP) task which consists of producing, from a given inflected word, its canonical form or lemma. Lemmatization is one of the basic tasks that facilitate downstream NLP applications, and is of particular importance for high-inflected languages. Given that the process to obtain a lemma from an inflected word can be explained by looking at its morphosyntactic category, including fine-grained morphosyntactic information to train contextual lemmatizers has become common practice, without considering whether that is the optimum in terms of downstream performance. In order to address this issue, in this paper we empirically investigate the role of morphological information to develop contextual lemmatizers in six languages within a varied spectrum of morphological complexity: Basque, Turkish, Russian, Czech, Spanish and English. Furthermore, and unlike the vast majority of previous work, we also evaluate lemmatizers in out-of-domain settings, which constitutes, after all, their most common application use. The results of our study are rather surprising. It turns out that providing lemmatizers with fine-grained morphological features during training is not that beneficial, not even for agglutinative languages. In fact, modern contextual word representations seem to implicitly encode enough morphological information to obtain competitive contextual lemmatizers without seeing any explicit morphological signal. Moreover, our experiments suggest that the best lemmatizers out-of-domain are those using simple UPOS tags or those trained without morphology and, finally, that current evaluation practices for lemmatization are not adequate to clearly discriminate between models.

The Universal Morphology (UniMorph) project is a collaborative effort providing broad-coverage instantiated normalized morphological inflection tables for hundreds of diverse world languages. The project comprises two major thrusts: a language-independent feature schema for rich morphological annotation and a type-level resource of annotated data in diverse languages realizing that schema. This paper presents the expansions and improvements made on several fronts over the last couple of years (since McCarthy et al. (2020)). Collaborative efforts by numerous linguists have added 67 new languages, including 30 endangered languages. We have implemented several improvements to the extraction pipeline to tackle some issues, e.g. missing gender and macron information. We have also amended the schema to use a hierarchical structure that is needed for morphological phenomena like multiple-argument agreement and case stacking, while adding some missing morphological features to make the schema more inclusive. In light of the last UniMorph release, we also augmented the database with morpheme segmentation for 16 languages. Lastly, this new release makes a push towards inclusion of derivational morphology in UniMorph by enriching the data and annotation schema with instances representing derivational processes from MorphyNet.

A challenge towards developing NLP systems for the world's languages is understanding how they generalize to typological differences relevant for real-world applications. To this end, we propose M2C, a morphologically-aware framework for behavioral testing of NLP models. We use M2C to generate tests that probe models' behavior in light of specific linguistic features in 12 typologically diverse languages. We evaluate state-of-the-art language models on the generated tests. While models excel at most tests in English, we highlight generalization failures to specific typological characteristics such as temporal expressions in Swahili and compounding possessives in Finish. Our findings motivate the development of models that address these blind spots.

Time series forecasting holds significant importance in many real-world dynamic systems and has been extensively studied. Unlike natural language process (NLP) and computer vision (CV), where a single large model can tackle multiple tasks, models for time series forecasting are often specialized, necessitating distinct designs for different tasks and applications. While pre-trained foundation models have made impressive strides in NLP and CV, their development in time series domains has been constrained by data sparsity. Recent studies have revealed that large language models (LLMs) possess robust pattern recognition and reasoning abilities over complex sequences of tokens. However, the challenge remains in effectively aligning the modalities of time series data and natural language to leverage these capabilities. In this work, we present Time-LLM, a reprogramming framework to repurpose LLMs for general time series forecasting with the backbone language models kept intact. We begin by reprogramming the input time series with text prototypes before feeding it into the frozen LLM to align the two modalities. To augment the LLM's ability to reason with time series data, we propose Prompt-as-Prefix (PaP), which enriches the input context and directs the transformation of reprogrammed input patches. The transformed time series patches from the LLM are finally projected to obtain the forecasts. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that Time-LLM is a powerful time series learner that outperforms state-of-the-art, specialized forecasting models. Moreover, Time-LLM excels in both few-shot and zero-shot learning scenarios.

Languages can encode temporal subordination lexically, via subordinating conjunctions, and morphologically, by marking the relation on the predicate. Systematic cross-linguistic variation among the former can be studied using well-established token-based typological approaches to token-aligned parallel corpora. Variation among different morphological means is instead much harder to tackle and therefore more poorly understood, despite being predominant in several language groups. This paper explores variation in the expression of generic temporal subordination ('when'-clauses) among the languages of Latin America and the Caribbean, where morphological marking is particularly common. It presents probabilistic semantic maps computed on the basis of the languages of the region, thus avoiding bias towards the many world's languages that exclusively use lexified connectors, incorporating associations between character n-grams and English when. The approach allows capturing morphological clause-linkage devices in addition to lexified connectors, paving the way for larger-scale, strategy-agnostic analyses of typological variation in temporal subordination.

The quality of subword tokenization is critical for Large Language Models, yet evaluating tokenizers for morphologically rich Uralic languages is hampered by the lack of clean morpheme lexicons. We introduce SampoNLP, a corpus-free toolkit for morphological lexicon creation using MDL-inspired Self-Referential Atomicity Scoring, which filters composite forms through internal structural cues - suited for low-resource settings. Using the high-purity lexicons generated by SampoNLP for Finnish, Hungarian, and Estonian, we conduct a systematic evaluation of BPE tokenizers across a range of vocabulary sizes (8k-256k). We propose a unified metric, the Integrated Performance Score (IPS), to navigate the trade-off between morpheme coverage and over-splitting. By analyzing the IPS curves, we identify the "elbow points" of diminishing returns and provide the first empirically grounded recommendations for optimal vocabulary sizes (k) in these languages. Our study not only offers practical guidance but also quantitatively demonstrates the limitations of standard BPE for highly agglutinative languages. The SampoNLP library and all generated resources are made publicly available: https://github.com/AragonerUA/SampoNLP

While tokenization is a key step in language modeling, with effects on model training and performance, it remains unclear how to effectively evaluate tokenizer quality. One proposed dimension of tokenizer quality is the extent to which tokenizers preserve linguistically meaningful subwords, aligning token boundaries with morphological boundaries within a word. We expand MorphScore (Arnett & Bergen, 2025), which previously covered 22 languages, to support a total of 70 languages. The updated MorphScore offers more flexibility in evaluation and addresses some of the limitations of the original version. We then correlate our alignment scores with downstream task performance for five pre-trained languages models on seven tasks, with at least one task in each of the languages in our sample. We find that morphological alignment does not explain very much variance in model performance, suggesting that morphological alignment alone does not measure dimensions of tokenization quality relevant to model performance.

Time series forecasting plays a vital role in supporting decision-making across a wide range of critical applications, including energy, healthcare, and finance. Despite recent advances, forecasting accuracy remains limited due to the challenge of integrating historical numerical sequences with contextual features, which often comprise unstructured textual data. To address this challenge, we propose TokenCast, an LLM-driven framework that leverages language-based symbolic representations as a unified intermediary for context-aware time series forecasting. Specifically, TokenCast employs a discrete tokenizer to transform continuous numerical sequences into temporal tokens, enabling structural alignment with language-based inputs. To bridge the semantic gap between modalities, both temporal and contextual tokens are embedded into a shared representation space via a pre-trained large language model (LLM), further optimized with autoregressive generative objectives. Building upon this unified semantic space, the aligned LLM is subsequently fine-tuned in a supervised manner to predict future temporal tokens, which are then decoded back into the original numerical space. Extensive experiments on diverse real-world datasets enriched with contextual features demonstrate the effectiveness and generalizability of TokenCast.

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

Domain-general semantic parsing is a long-standing goal in natural language processing, where the semantic parser is capable of robustly parsing sentences from domains outside of which it was trained. Current approaches largely rely on additional supervision from new domains in order to generalize to those domains. We present a generative model of natural language utterances and logical forms and demonstrate its application to semantic parsing. Our approach relies on domain-independent supervision to generalize to new domains. We derive and implement efficient algorithms for training, parsing, and sentence generation. The work relies on a novel application of hierarchical Dirichlet processes (HDPs) for structured prediction, which we also present in this manuscript. This manuscript is an excerpt of chapter 4 from the Ph.D. thesis of Saparov (2022), where the model plays a central role in a larger natural language understanding system. This manuscript provides a new simplified and more complete presentation of the work first introduced in Saparov, Saraswat, and Mitchell (2017). The description and proofs of correctness of the training algorithm, parsing algorithm, and sentence generation algorithm are much simplified in this new presentation. We also describe the novel application of hierarchical Dirichlet processes for structured prediction. In addition, we extend the earlier work with a new model of word morphology, which utilizes the comprehensive morphological data from Wiktionary.

Large language models (LLMs) are often trained on extensive, temporally indiscriminate text corpora, reflecting the lack of datasets with temporal metadata. This approach is not aligned with the evolving nature of language. Conventional methods for creating temporally adapted language models often depend on further pre-training static models on time-specific data. This paper presents a new approach: a series of point-in-time LLMs called Time Machine GPT (TiMaGPT), specifically designed to be nonprognosticative. This ensures they remain uninformed about future factual information and linguistic changes. This strategy is beneficial for understanding language evolution and is of critical importance when applying models in dynamic contexts, such as time-series forecasting, where foresight of future information can prove problematic. We provide access to both the models and training datasets.

The relationship between language model tokenization and performance is an open area of research. Here, we investigate how different tokenization schemes impact number agreement in Spanish plurals. We find that morphologically-aligned tokenization performs similarly to other tokenization schemes, even when induced artificially for words that would not be tokenized that way during training. We then present exploratory analyses demonstrating that language model embeddings for different plural tokenizations have similar distributions along the embedding space axis that maximally distinguishes singular and plural nouns. Our results suggest that morphologically-aligned tokenization is a viable tokenization approach, and existing models already generalize some morphological patterns to new items. However, our results indicate that morphological tokenization is not strictly required for performance.

Training on only perfect Standard English corpora predisposes pre-trained neural networks to discriminate against minorities from non-standard linguistic backgrounds (e.g., African American Vernacular English, Colloquial Singapore English, etc.). We perturb the inflectional morphology of words to craft plausible and semantically similar adversarial examples that expose these biases in popular NLP models, e.g., BERT and Transformer, and show that adversarially fine-tuning them for a single epoch significantly improves robustness without sacrificing performance on clean data.

Time series forecasting traditionally relies on unimodal numerical inputs, which often struggle to capture high-level semantic patterns due to their dense and unstructured nature. While recent approaches have explored representing time series as text using large language models (LLMs), these methods remain limited by the discrete nature of token sequences and lack the perceptual intuition humans typically apply, such as interpreting visual patterns. In this paper, we propose a multimodal contrastive learning framework that transforms raw time series into structured visual and textual perspectives. Rather than using natural language or real-world images, we construct both modalities directly from numerical sequences. We then align these views in a shared semantic space via contrastive learning, enabling the model to capture richer and more complementary representations. Furthermore, we introduce a variate selection module that leverages the aligned representations to identify the most informative variables for multivariate forecasting. Extensive experiments on fifteen short-term and six long-term forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms strong unimodal and cross-modal baselines, highlighting the effectiveness of multimodal alignment in enhancing time series forecasting. Code is available at: https://github.com/Ironieser/TimesCLIP.

We present LEMMING, a modular log-linear model that jointly models lemmatization and tagging and supports the integration of arbitrary global features. It is trainable on corpora annotated with gold standard tags and lemmata and does not rely on morphological dictionaries or analyzers. LEMMING sets the new state of the art in token-based statistical lemmatization on six languages; e.g., for Czech lemmatization, we reduce the error by 60%, from 4.05 to 1.58. We also give empirical evidence that jointly modeling morphological tags and lemmata is mutually beneficial.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated impressive capabilities in natural language processing due to their strong generalization and sequence modeling capabilities. However, their direct application to time series forecasting remains challenging due to two fundamental issues: the inherent heterogeneity of temporal patterns and the modality gap between continuous numerical signals and discrete language representations. In this work, we propose TALON, a unified framework that enhances LLM-based forecasting by modeling temporal heterogeneity and enforcing semantic alignment. Specifically, we design a Heterogeneous Temporal Encoder that partitions multivariate time series into structurally coherent segments, enabling localized expert modeling across diverse temporal patterns. To bridge the modality gap, we introduce a Semantic Alignment Module that aligns temporal features with LLM-compatible representations, enabling effective integration of time series into language-based models while eliminating the need for handcrafted prompts during inference. Extensive experiments on seven real-world benchmarks demonstrate that TALON achieves superior performance across all datasets, with average MSE improvements of up to 11\% over recent state-of-the-art methods. These results underscore the effectiveness of incorporating both pattern-aware and semantic-aware designs when adapting LLMs for time series forecasting. The code is available at: https://github.com/syrGitHub/TALON.

Lemmatization is still not a trivial task for morphologically rich languages. Previous studies showed that hybrid architectures usually work better for these languages and can yield great results. This paper presents a hybrid lemmatizer utilizing both a neural model, dictionaries and hand-crafted rules. We introduce a hybrid architecture along with empirical results on a widely used Hungarian dataset. The presented methods are published as three HuSpaCy models.

The SIGMORPHON 2022 shared task on morpheme segmentation challenged systems to decompose a word into a sequence of morphemes and covered most types of morphology: compounds, derivations, and inflections. Subtask 1, word-level morpheme segmentation, covered 5 million words in 9 languages (Czech, English, Spanish, Hungarian, French, Italian, Russian, Latin, Mongolian) and received 13 system submissions from 7 teams and the best system averaged 97.29% F1 score across all languages, ranging English (93.84%) to Latin (99.38%). Subtask 2, sentence-level morpheme segmentation, covered 18,735 sentences in 3 languages (Czech, English, Mongolian), received 10 system submissions from 3 teams, and the best systems outperformed all three state-of-the-art subword tokenization methods (BPE, ULM, Morfessor2) by 30.71% absolute. To facilitate error analysis and support any type of future studies, we released all system predictions, the evaluation script, and all gold standard datasets.

Neural dependency parsing has achieved remarkable performance for many domains and languages. The bottleneck of massive labeled data limits the effectiveness of these approaches for low resource languages. In this work, we focus on dependency parsing for morphological rich languages (MRLs) in a low-resource setting. Although morphological information is essential for the dependency parsing task, the morphological disambiguation and lack of powerful analyzers pose challenges to get this information for MRLs. To address these challenges, we propose simple auxiliary tasks for pretraining. We perform experiments on 10 MRLs in low-resource settings to measure the efficacy of our proposed pretraining method and observe an average absolute gain of 2 points (UAS) and 3.6 points (LAS). Code and data available at: https://github.com/jivnesh/LCM

Large language models (LLMs) have recently reached an impressive level of linguistic capability, prompting comparisons with human language skills. However, there have been relatively few systematic inquiries into the linguistic capabilities of the latest generation of LLMs, and those studies that do exist (i) ignore the remarkable ability of humans to generalize, (ii) focus only on English, and (iii) investigate syntax or semantics and overlook other capabilities that lie at the heart of human language, like morphology. Here, we close these gaps by conducting the first rigorous analysis of the morphological capabilities of ChatGPT in four typologically varied languages (specifically, English, German, Tamil, and Turkish). We apply a version of Berko's (1958) wug test to ChatGPT, using novel, uncontaminated datasets for the four examined languages. We find that ChatGPT massively underperforms purpose-built systems, particularly in English. Overall, our results -- through the lens of morphology -- cast a new light on the linguistic capabilities of ChatGPT, suggesting that claims of human-like language skills are premature and misleading.

Motivated by recent advances in large language models for Natural Language Processing (NLP), we design a time-series foundation model for forecasting whose out-of-the-box zero-shot performance on a variety of public datasets comes close to the accuracy of state-of-the-art supervised forecasting models for each individual dataset. Our model is based on pretraining a patched-decoder style attention model on a large time-series corpus, and can work well across different forecasting history lengths, prediction lengths and temporal granularities.

Forecasting future world events is a challenging but valuable task. Forecasts of climate, geopolitical conflict, pandemics and economic indicators help shape policy and decision making. In these domains, the judgment of expert humans contributes to the best forecasts. Given advances in language modeling, can these forecasts be automated? To this end, we introduce Autocast, a dataset containing thousands of forecasting questions and an accompanying news corpus. Questions are taken from forecasting tournaments, ensuring high quality, real-world importance, and diversity. The news corpus is organized by date, allowing us to precisely simulate the conditions under which humans made past forecasts (avoiding leakage from the future). Motivated by the difficulty of forecasting numbers across orders of magnitude (e.g. global cases of COVID-19 in 2022), we also curate IntervalQA, a dataset of numerical questions and metrics for calibration. We test language models on our forecasting task and find that performance is far below a human expert baseline. However, performance improves with increased model size and incorporation of relevant information from the news corpus. In sum, Autocast poses a novel challenge for large language models and improved performance could bring large practical benefits.

Named Entity Recognition (NER) is a fundamental NLP task, commonly formulated as classification over a sequence of tokens. Morphologically-Rich Languages (MRLs) pose a challenge to this basic formulation, as the boundaries of Named Entities do not necessarily coincide with token boundaries, rather, they respect morphological boundaries. To address NER in MRLs we then need to answer two fundamental questions, namely, what are the basic units to be labeled, and how can these units be detected and classified in realistic settings, i.e., where no gold morphology is available. We empirically investigate these questions on a novel NER benchmark, with parallel tokenlevel and morpheme-level NER annotations, which we develop for Modern Hebrew, a morphologically rich-and-ambiguous language. Our results show that explicitly modeling morphological boundaries leads to improved NER performance, and that a novel hybrid architecture, in which NER precedes and prunes morphological decomposition, greatly outperforms the standard pipeline, where morphological decomposition strictly precedes NER, setting a new performance bar for both Hebrew NER and Hebrew morphological decomposition tasks.

Time series forecasting is a long-standing and highly challenging research topic. Recently, driven by the rise of large language models (LLMs), research has increasingly shifted from purely time series methods toward harnessing textual modalities to enhance forecasting performance. However, the vast discrepancy between text and temporal data often leads current multimodal architectures to over-emphasise one modality while neglecting the other, resulting in information loss that harms forecasting performance. To address this modality imbalance, we introduce BALM-TSF (Balanced Multimodal Alignment for LLM-Based Time Series Forecasting), a lightweight time series forecasting framework that maintains balance between the two modalities. Specifically, raw time series are processed by the time series encoder, while descriptive statistics of raw time series are fed to an LLM with learnable prompt, producing compact textual embeddings. To ensure balanced cross-modal context alignment of time series and textual embeddings, a simple yet effective scaling strategy combined with a contrastive objective then maps these textual embeddings into the latent space of the time series embeddings. Finally, the aligned textual semantic embeddings and time series embeddings are together integrated for forecasting. Extensive experiments on standard benchmarks show that, with minimal trainable parameters, BALM-TSF achieves state-of-the-art performance in both long-term and few-shot forecasting, confirming its ability to harness complementary information from text and time series. Code is available at https://github.com/ShiqiaoZhou/BALM-TSF.

We propose a morphologically informed model for named entity recognition, which is based on LSTM-CRF architecture and combines word embeddings, Bi-LSTM character embeddings, part-of-speech (POS) tags, and morphological information. While previous work has focused on learning from raw word input, using word and character embeddings only, we show that for morphologically rich languages, such as Bulgarian, access to POS information contributes more to the performance gains than the detailed morphological information. Thus, we show that named entity recognition needs only coarse-grained POS tags, but at the same time it can benefit from simultaneously using some POS information of different granularity. Our evaluation results over a standard dataset show sizable improvements over the state-of-the-art for Bulgarian NER.

By encoding time series as a string of numerical digits, we can frame time series forecasting as next-token prediction in text. Developing this approach, we find that large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-3 and LLaMA-2 can surprisingly zero-shot extrapolate time series at a level comparable to or exceeding the performance of purpose-built time series models trained on the downstream tasks. To facilitate this performance, we propose procedures for effectively tokenizing time series data and converting discrete distributions over tokens into highly flexible densities over continuous values. We argue the success of LLMs for time series stems from their ability to naturally represent multimodal distributions, in conjunction with biases for simplicity, and repetition, which align with the salient features in many time series, such as repeated seasonal trends. We also show how LLMs can naturally handle missing data without imputation through non-numerical text, accommodate textual side information, and answer questions to help explain predictions. While we find that increasing model size generally improves performance on time series, we show GPT-4 can perform worse than GPT-3 because of how it tokenizes numbers, and poor uncertainty calibration, which is likely the result of alignment interventions such as RLHF.

We focus on morphological inflection in out-of-vocabulary (OOV) conditions, an under-researched subtask in which state-of-the-art systems usually are less effective. We developed three systems: a retrograde model and two sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models based on LSTM and Transformer. For testing in OOV conditions, we automatically extracted a large dataset of nouns in the morphologically rich Czech language, with lemma-disjoint data splits, and we further manually annotated a real-world OOV dataset of neologisms. In the standard OOV conditions, Transformer achieves the best results, with increasing performance in ensemble with LSTM, the retrograde model and SIGMORPHON baselines. On the real-world OOV dataset of neologisms, the retrograde model outperforms all neural models. Finally, our seq2seq models achieve state-of-the-art results in 9 out of 16 languages from SIGMORPHON 2022 shared task data in the OOV evaluation (feature overlap) in the large data condition. We release the Czech OOV Inflection Dataset for rigorous evaluation in OOV conditions. Further, we release the inflection system with the seq2seq models as a ready-to-use Python library.

Tokenization is fundamental to Natural Language Processing (NLP), directly impacting model efficiency and linguistic fidelity. While Byte Pair Encoding (BPE) is widely used in Large Language Models (LLMs), it often disregards morpheme boundaries, leading to suboptimal segmentation, particularly in morphologically rich languages. We introduce MorphBPE, a morphology-aware extension of BPE that integrates linguistic structure into subword tokenization while preserving statistical efficiency. Additionally, we propose two morphology-based evaluation metrics: (i) Morphological Consistency F1-Score, which quantifies the consistency between morpheme sharing and token sharing, contributing to LLM training convergence, and (ii) Morphological Edit Distance, which measures alignment between morphemes and tokens concerning interpretability. Experiments on English, Russian, Hungarian, and Arabic across 300M and 1B parameter LLMs demonstrate that MorphBPE consistently reduces cross-entropy loss, accelerates convergence, and improves morphological alignment scores. Fully compatible with existing LLM pipelines, MorphBPE requires minimal modifications for integration. The MorphBPE codebase and tokenizer playground will be available at: https://github.com/llm-lab-org/MorphBPE and https://tokenizer.llm-lab.org

Recent advancements in time series forecasting have explored augmenting models with text or vision modalities to improve accuracy. While text provides contextual understanding, it often lacks fine-grained temporal details. Conversely, vision captures intricate temporal patterns but lacks semantic context, limiting the complementary potential of these modalities. To address this, we propose \method, a novel multimodal framework that leverages pre-trained Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to bridge temporal, visual, and textual modalities for enhanced forecasting. Our framework comprises three key components: (1) a Retrieval-Augmented Learner, which extracts enriched temporal features through memory bank interactions; (2) a Vision-Augmented Learner, which encodes time series as informative images; and (3) a Text-Augmented Learner, which generates contextual textual descriptions. These components collaborate with frozen pre-trained VLMs to produce multimodal embeddings, which are then fused with temporal features for final prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Time-VLM achieves superior performance, particularly in few-shot and zero-shot scenarios, thereby establishing a new direction for multimodal time series forecasting. Code is available at https://github.com/CityMind-Lab/ICML25-TimeVLM.

Data augmentation, a widely-employed technique for addressing data scarcity, involves generating synthetic data examples which are then used to augment available training data. Researchers have seen surprising success from simple methods, such as random perturbations from natural examples, where models seem to benefit even from data with nonsense words, or data that doesn't conform to the rules of the language. A second line of research produces synthetic data that does in fact follow all linguistic constraints; these methods require some linguistic expertise and are generally more challenging to implement. No previous work has done a systematic, empirical comparison of both linguistically-naive and linguistically-motivated data augmentation strategies, leaving uncertainty about whether the additional time and effort of linguistically-motivated data augmentation work in fact yields better downstream performance. In this work, we conduct a careful and comprehensive comparison of augmentation strategies (both linguistically-naive and linguistically-motivated) for two low-resource languages with different morphological properties, Uspanteko and Arapaho. We evaluate the effectiveness of many different strategies and their combinations across two important sequence-to-sequence tasks for low-resource languages: machine translation and interlinear glossing. We find that linguistically-motivated strategies can have benefits over naive approaches, but only when the new examples they produce are not significantly unlike the training data distribution.

Model selection is a critical step in time series forecasting, traditionally requiring extensive performance evaluations across various datasets. Meta-learning approaches aim to automate this process, but they typically depend on pre-constructed performance matrices, which are costly to build. In this work, we propose to leverage Large Language Models (LLMs) as a lightweight alternative for model selection. Our method eliminates the need for explicit performance matrices by utilizing the inherent knowledge and reasoning capabilities of LLMs. Through extensive experiments with LLaMA, GPT and Gemini, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms traditional meta-learning techniques and heuristic baselines, while significantly reducing computational overhead. These findings underscore the potential of LLMs in efficient model selection for time series forecasting.

While large language models have rapidly evolved towards general artificial intelligence, their versatility in analyzing time series data remains limited. To address this limitation, we propose a novel normalization technique that considers the inherent nature of tokenization. The proposed Tokenization-Optimized Normalization (TOKON) simplifies time series data by representing each element with a single token, effectively reducing the number of tokens by 2 to 3 times. Additionally, we introduce a novel prompt for time series forecasting, termed Time Series Forecasting with Care (TFSC), to further enhance forecasting performance. Experimental results demonstrate that TOKON improves root mean square error (RMSE) for multi-step forecasting by approximately 7% to 18%, depending on the dataset and prompting method. Furthermore, TFSC, when used in conjunction with TOKON, shows additional improvements in forecasting accuracy for certain datasets

Tokenization is a fundamental preprocessing step in NLP, directly impacting large language models' (LLMs) ability to capture syntactic, morphosyntactic, and semantic structures. This paper introduces a novel framework for systematically evaluating tokenization strategies, addressing challenges in morphologically rich and low-resource languages. Using a Turkish dataset of 6,200 multiple-choice questions from the Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) benchmark, the framework assesses tokenizers across five key metrics: vocabulary size, token count, processing time, language-specific token percentages (\%TR), and token purity. These metrics provide a structured approach to evaluating how well tokenizers preserve linguistic structures. While \%TR measures the proportion of valid words in the target language, \%Pure assesses the alignment of tokens with meaningful linguistic units, such as roots and valid morphemes, minimizing semantic fragmentation. The findings reveal that \%TR, introduced as a critical metric, exhibits a stronger correlation with downstream performance (e.g., MMLU scores) than token purity, emphasizing its role in improving model accuracy. Additionally, larger model parameters do not necessarily yield better tokenization quality or enhanced results, highlighting the importance of tailored tokenization strategies that prioritize linguistic alignment. This framework sets a new standard for developing robust tokenization methods optimized for morphologically complex and low-resource languages. Future work will refine morphological analysis, explore domain-specific customizations, and conduct cross-linguistic evaluations to further enhance tokenization practices.

Foundation models of time series have not been fully developed due to the limited availability of time series corpora and the underexploration of scalable pre-training. Based on the similar sequential formulation of time series and natural language, increasing research demonstrates the feasibility of leveraging large language models (LLM) for time series. Nevertheless, the inherent autoregressive property and decoder-only architecture of LLMs have not been fully considered, resulting in insufficient utilization of LLM abilities. To fully revitalize the general-purpose token transition and multi-step generation capability of large language models, we propose AutoTimes to repurpose LLMs as autoregressive time series forecasters, which projects time series into the embedding space of language tokens and autoregressively generates future predictions with arbitrary lengths. Compatible with any decoder-only LLMs, the consequent forecaster exhibits the flexibility of the lookback length and scalability with larger LLMs. Further, we formulate time series as prompts, extending the context for prediction beyond the lookback window, termed in-context forecasting. By introducing LLM-embedded textual timestamps, AutoTimes can utilize chronological information to align multivariate time series. Empirically, AutoTimes achieves state-of-the-art with 0.1% trainable parameters and over 5times training/inference speedup compared to advanced LLM-based forecasters. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/AutoTimes.

We introduce The Benchmark of Linguistic Minimal Pairs (shortened to BLiMP), a challenge set for evaluating what language models (LMs) know about major grammatical phenomena in English. BLiMP consists of 67 sub-datasets, each containing 1000 minimal pairs isolating specific contrasts in syntax, morphology, or semantics. The data is automatically generated according to expert-crafted grammars, and aggregate human agreement with the labels is 96.4%. We use it to evaluate n-gram, LSTM, and Transformer (GPT-2 and Transformer-XL) LMs. We find that state-of-the-art models identify morphological contrasts reliably, but they struggle with semantic restrictions on the distribution of quantifiers and negative polarity items and subtle syntactic phenomena such as extraction islands.

Recently, there has been a growing interest in leveraging pre-trained large language models (LLMs) for various time series applications. However, the semantic space of LLMs, established through the pre-training, is still underexplored and may help yield more distinctive and informative representations to facilitate time series forecasting. To this end, we propose Semantic Space Informed Prompt learning with LLM (S^2IP-LLM) to align the pre-trained semantic space with time series embeddings space and perform time series forecasting based on learned prompts from the joint space. We first design a tokenization module tailored for cross-modality alignment, which explicitly concatenates patches of decomposed time series components to create embeddings that effectively encode the temporal dynamics. Next, we leverage the pre-trained word token embeddings to derive semantic anchors and align selected anchors with time series embeddings by maximizing the cosine similarity in the joint space. This way, S^2IP-LLM can retrieve relevant semantic anchors as prompts to provide strong indicators (context) for time series that exhibit different temporal dynamics. With thorough empirical studies on multiple benchmark datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed S^2IP-LLM can achieve superior forecasting performance over state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, our ablation studies and visualizations verify the necessity of prompt learning informed by semantic space.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated new possibilities for accurate and efficient time series analysis, but prior work often required heavy fine-tuning and/or ignored inter-series correlations. In this work, we explore simple and flexible prompt-based strategies that enable LLMs to perform time series forecasting without extensive retraining or the use of a complex external architecture. Through the exploration of specialized prompting methods that leverage time series decomposition, patch-based tokenization, and similarity-based neighbor augmentation, we find that it is possible to enhance LLM forecasting quality while maintaining simplicity and requiring minimal preprocessing of data. To this end, we propose our own method, PatchInstruct, which enables LLMs to make precise and effective predictions.

Forecasting is a critical task in decision-making across numerous domains. While historical numerical data provide a start, they fail to convey the complete context for reliable and accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge and constraints, which can efficiently be communicated through natural language. However, in spite of recent progress with LLM-based forecasters, their ability to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time-series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities; crucially, every task in CiK requires understanding textual context to be solved successfully. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. This benchmark aims to advance multimodal forecasting by promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/.

Measuring the morphological parameters of galaxies is a key requirement for studying their formation and evolution. Surveys such as the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) have resulted in the availability of very large collections of images, which have permitted population-wide analyses of galaxy morphology. Morphological analysis has traditionally been carried out mostly via visual inspection by trained experts, which is time-consuming and does not scale to large (gtrsim10^4) numbers of images. Although attempts have been made to build automated classification systems, these have not been able to achieve the desired level of accuracy. The Galaxy Zoo project successfully applied a crowdsourcing strategy, inviting online users to classify images by answering a series of questions. Unfortunately, even this approach does not scale well enough to keep up with the increasing availability of galaxy images. We present a deep neural network model for galaxy morphology classification which exploits translational and rotational symmetry. It was developed in the context of the Galaxy Challenge, an international competition to build the best model for morphology classification based on annotated images from the Galaxy Zoo project. For images with high agreement among the Galaxy Zoo participants, our model is able to reproduce their consensus with near-perfect accuracy (> 99%) for most questions. Confident model predictions are highly accurate, which makes the model suitable for filtering large collections of images and forwarding challenging images to experts for manual annotation. This approach greatly reduces the experts' workload without affecting accuracy. The application of these algorithms to larger sets of training data will be critical for analysing results from future surveys such as the LSST.

We present three innovations in tokenization and subword segmentation. First, we propose to use unsupervised morphological analysis with Morfessor as pre-tokenization. Second, we present an algebraic method for obtaining subword embeddings grounded in a word embedding space. Based on that, we design a novel subword segmentation algorithm that uses the embeddings, ensuring that the procedure considers lexical meaning. Third, we introduce an efficient segmentation algorithm based on a subword bigram model that can be initialized with the lexically aware segmentation method to avoid using Morfessor and large embedding tables at inference time. We evaluate the proposed approaches using two intrinsic metrics and measure their performance on two downstream tasks: part-of-speech tagging and machine translation. Our experiments show significant improvements in the morphological plausibility of the segmentation when evaluated using segmentation precision on morpheme boundaries and improved R\'enyi efficiency in 8 languages. Although the proposed tokenization methods do not have a large impact on automatic translation quality, we observe consistent performance gains in the arguably more morphological task of part-of-speech tagging.

We present the first dataset targeted at end-to-end NLG in Czech in the restaurant domain, along with several strong baseline models using the sequence-to-sequence approach. While non-English NLG is under-explored in general, Czech, as a morphologically rich language, makes the task even harder: Since Czech requires inflecting named entities, delexicalization or copy mechanisms do not work out-of-the-box and lexicalizing the generated outputs is non-trivial. In our experiments, we present two different approaches to this this problem: (1) using a neural language model to select the correct inflected form while lexicalizing, (2) a two-step generation setup: our sequence-to-sequence model generates an interleaved sequence of lemmas and morphological tags, which are then inflected by a morphological generator.

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate partial forecasting competence across social, political, and economic events. Yet, their predictive ability varies sharply with domain structure and prompt framing. We investigate how forecasting performance varies with different model families on real-world questions about events that happened beyond the model cutoff date. We analyze how context, question type, and external knowledge affect accuracy and calibration, and how adding factual news context modifies belief formation and failure modes. Our results show that forecasting ability is highly variable as it depends on what, and how, we ask.

We employ new tools from mechanistic interpretability in order to ask whether the internal structure of large language models (LLMs) shows correspondence to the linguistic structures which underlie the languages on which they are trained. In particular, we ask (1) when two languages employ the same morphosyntactic processes, do LLMs handle them using shared internal circuitry? and (2) when two languages require different morphosyntactic processes, do LLMs handle them using different internal circuitry? Using English and Chinese multilingual and monolingual models, we analyze the internal circuitry involved in two tasks. We find evidence that models employ the same circuit to handle the same syntactic process independently of the language in which it occurs, and that this is the case even for monolingual models trained completely independently. Moreover, we show that multilingual models employ language-specific components (attention heads and feed-forward networks) when needed to handle linguistic processes (e.g., morphological marking) that only exist in some languages. Together, our results provide new insights into how LLMs trade off between exploiting common structures and preserving linguistic differences when tasked with modeling multiple languages simultaneously.

This study evaluates three different lemmatization approaches to Estonian -- Generative character-level models, Pattern-based word-level classification models, and rule-based morphological analysis. According to our experiments, a significantly smaller Generative model consistently outperforms the Pattern-based classification model based on EstBERT. Additionally, we observe a relatively small overlap in errors made by all three models, indicating that an ensemble of different approaches could lead to improvements.

Multilingual language models (LMs) promise broader NLP access, yet current systems deliver uneven performance across the world's languages. This survey examines why these gaps persist and whether they reflect intrinsic linguistic difficulty or modeling artifacts. We organize the literature around two questions: do linguistic disparities arise from representation and allocation choices (e.g., tokenization, encoding, data exposure, parameter sharing) rather than inherent complexity; and which design choices mitigate inequities across typologically diverse languages. We review linguistic features, such as orthography, morphology, lexical diversity, syntax, information density, and typological distance, linking each to concrete modeling mechanisms. Gaps often shrink when segmentation, encoding, and data exposure are normalized, suggesting much apparent difficulty stems from current modeling choices. We synthesize these insights into design recommendations for tokenization, sampling, architectures, and evaluation to support more balanced multilingual LMs.

Machine-based prediction of real-world events is garnering attention due to its potential for informed decision-making. Whereas traditional forecasting predominantly hinges on structured data like time-series, recent breakthroughs in language models enable predictions using unstructured text. In particular, (Zou et al., 2022) unveils AutoCast, a new benchmark that employs news articles for answering forecasting queries. Nevertheless, existing methods still trail behind human performance. The cornerstone of accurate forecasting, we argue, lies in identifying a concise, yet rich subset of news snippets from a vast corpus. With this motivation, we introduce AutoCast++, a zero-shot ranking-based context retrieval system, tailored to sift through expansive news document collections for event forecasting. Our approach first re-ranks articles based on zero-shot question-passage relevance, honing in on semantically pertinent news. Following this, the chosen articles are subjected to zero-shot summarization to attain succinct context. Leveraging a pre-trained language model, we conduct both the relevance evaluation and article summarization without needing domain-specific training. Notably, recent articles can sometimes be at odds with preceding ones due to new facts or unanticipated incidents, leading to fluctuating temporal dynamics. To tackle this, our re-ranking mechanism gives preference to more recent articles, and we further regularize the multi-passage representation learning to align with human forecaster responses made on different dates. Empirical results underscore marked improvements across multiple metrics, improving the performance for multiple-choice questions (MCQ) by 48% and true/false (TF) questions by up to 8%.

Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in generative modeling tasks across various domains. Prior works on time series diffusion models have primarily focused on developing conditional models tailored to specific forecasting or imputation tasks. In this work, we explore the potential of task-agnostic, unconditional diffusion models for several time series applications. We propose TSDiff, an unconditionally trained diffusion model for time series. Our proposed self-guidance mechanism enables conditioning TSDiff for downstream tasks during inference, without requiring auxiliary networks or altering the training procedure. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on three different time series tasks: forecasting, refinement, and synthetic data generation. First, we show that TSDiff is competitive with several task-specific conditional forecasting methods (predict). Second, we leverage the learned implicit probability density of TSDiff to iteratively refine the predictions of base forecasters with reduced computational overhead over reverse diffusion (refine). Notably, the generative performance of the model remains intact -- downstream forecasters trained on synthetic samples from TSDiff outperform forecasters that are trained on samples from other state-of-the-art generative time series models, occasionally even outperforming models trained on real data (synthesize).

DEMorphy is a morphological analyzer for German. It is built onto large, compactified lexicons from German Morphological Dictionary. A guesser based on German declension suffixed is also provided. For German, we provided a state-of-art morphological analyzer. DEMorphy is implemented in Python with ease of usability and accompanying documentation. The package is suitable for both academic and commercial purposes wit a permissive licence.

Continuous word representations, trained on large unlabeled corpora are useful for many natural language processing tasks. Popular models that learn such representations ignore the morphology of words, by assigning a distinct vector to each word. This is a limitation, especially for languages with large vocabularies and many rare words. In this paper, we propose a new approach based on the skipgram model, where each word is represented as a bag of character n-grams. A vector representation is associated to each character n-gram; words being represented as the sum of these representations. Our method is fast, allowing to train models on large corpora quickly and allows us to compute word representations for words that did not appear in the training data. We evaluate our word representations on nine different languages, both on word similarity and analogy tasks. By comparing to recently proposed morphological word representations, we show that our vectors achieve state-of-the-art performance on these tasks.

Protolanguage reconstruction is central to historical linguistics. The comparative method, one of the most influential theoretical and methodological frameworks in the history of the language sciences, allows linguists to infer protoforms (reconstructed ancestral words) from their reflexes (related modern words) based on the assumption of regular sound change. Not surprisingly, numerous computational linguists have attempted to operationalize comparative reconstruction through various computational models, the most successful of which have been supervised encoder-decoder models, which treat the problem of predicting protoforms given sets of reflexes as a sequence-to-sequence problem. We argue that this framework ignores one of the most important aspects of the comparative method: not only should protoforms be inferable from cognate sets (sets of related reflexes) but the reflexes should also be inferable from the protoforms. Leveraging another line of research -- reflex prediction -- we propose a system in which candidate protoforms from a reconstruction model are reranked by a reflex prediction model. We show that this more complete implementation of the comparative method allows us to surpass state-of-the-art protoform reconstruction methods on three of four Chinese and Romance datasets.

We present Timer-XL, a generative Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict 1D and 2D time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for causal generation of 1D sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The proposed paradigm uniformly formulates various forecasting scenarios as a long-context generation problem. We opt for the generative Transformer, which can capture global-range and causal dependencies while providing contextual flexibility, to implement unified forecasting on univariate series characterized by non-stationarity, multivariate time series with complicated dynamics and correlations, and covariate-informed contexts that include both endogenous and exogenous variables. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to facilitate generative Transformers on time series, which can effectively capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches) and is further strengthened by position embeddings in both temporal and variable dimensions. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across challenging forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. As a large time series model, it demonstrates notable model transferability by large-scale pre-training, as well as contextual flexibility in token lengths, positioning it as a one-for-all forecaster.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown potential as tools for scientific discovery. This has engendered growing interest in their use in humanistic disciplines, such as historical linguistics and literary studies. These fields often construct arguments on the basis of delineations like genre, or more inflexibly, time period. Although efforts have been made to restrict inference to specific domains via fine-tuning or model editing, we posit that the only true guarantee is domain-restricted pretraining -- typically, a data- and compute-expensive proposition. We show that efficient pretraining techniques can produce useful models over corpora too large for easy manual inspection but too small for "typical" LLM approaches. We employ a novel date-attribution pipeline in order to obtain a temporally-segmented dataset of five 10-million-word slices. We train two corresponding five-model batteries over these corpus segments, efficient pretraining and Llama3-8B parameter efficiently finetuned. We find that the pretrained models are faster to train than the finetuned baselines and that they better respect the historical divisions of our corpus. Emphasizing speed and precision over a-historical comprehensiveness enables a number of novel approaches to hypothesis discovery and testing in our target fields. Taking up diachronic linguistics as a testbed, we show that our method enables the detection of a diverse set of phenomena, including en masse lexical change, non-lexical (grammatical and morphological) change, and word sense introduction/obsolescence. We provide a ready-to-use pipeline that allows extension of our approach to other target fields with only minimal adaptation.

What mechanisms underlie linguistic generalization in large language models (LLMs)? This question has attracted considerable attention, with most studies analyzing the extent to which the language skills of LLMs resemble rules. As of yet, it is not known whether linguistic generalization in LLMs could equally well be explained as the result of analogical processes, which can be formalized as similarity operations on stored exemplars. A key shortcoming of prior research is its focus on linguistic phenomena with a high degree of regularity, for which rule-based and analogical approaches make the same predictions. Here, we instead examine derivational morphology, specifically English adjective nominalization, which displays notable variability. We introduce a new method for investigating linguistic generalization in LLMs: focusing on GPT-J, we fit cognitive models that instantiate rule-based and analogical learning to the LLM training data and compare their predictions on a set of nonce adjectives with those of the LLM, allowing us to draw direct conclusions regarding underlying mechanisms. As expected, rule-based and analogical models explain the predictions of GPT-J equally well for adjectives with regular nominalization patterns. However, for adjectives with variable nominalization patterns, the analogical model provides a much better match. Furthermore, GPT-J's behavior is sensitive to the individual word frequencies, even for regular forms, a behavior that is consistent with an analogical account of regular forms but not a rule-based one. These findings refute the hypothesis that GPT-J's linguistic generalization on adjective nominalization involves rules, suggesting similarity operations on stored exemplars as the underlying mechanism. Overall, our study suggests that analogical processes play a bigger role in the linguistic generalization of LLMs than previously thought.

We introduce Chronos, a simple yet effective framework for pretrained probabilistic time series models. Chronos tokenizes time series values using scaling and quantization into a fixed vocabulary and trains existing transformer-based language model architectures on these tokenized time series via the cross-entropy loss. We pretrained Chronos models based on the T5 family (ranging from 20M to 710M parameters) on a large collection of publicly available datasets, complemented by a synthetic dataset that we generated via Gaussian processes to improve generalization. In a comprehensive benchmark consisting of 42 datasets, and comprising both classical local models and deep learning methods, we show that Chronos models: (a) significantly outperform other methods on datasets that were part of the training corpus; and (b) have comparable and occasionally superior zero-shot performance on new datasets, relative to methods that were trained specifically on them. Our results demonstrate that Chronos models can leverage time series data from diverse domains to improve zero-shot accuracy on unseen forecasting tasks, positioning pretrained models as a viable tool to greatly simplify forecasting pipelines.

The availability of parallel texts is crucial to the performance of machine translation models. However, most of the world's languages face the predominant challenge of data scarcity. In this paper, we propose strategies to synthesize parallel data relying on morpho-syntactic information and using bilingual lexicons along with a small amount of seed parallel data. Our methodology adheres to a realistic scenario backed by the small parallel seed data. It is linguistically informed, as it aims to create augmented data that is more likely to be grammatically correct. We analyze how our synthetic data can be combined with raw parallel data and demonstrate a consistent improvement in performance in our experiments on 14 languages (28 English <-> X pairs) ranging from well- to very low-resource ones. Our method leads to improvements even when using only five seed sentences and a bilingual lexicon.

Recent advancements in morpheme segmentation primarily emphasize word-level segmentation, often neglecting the contextual relevance within the sentence. In this study, we redefine the morpheme segmentation task as a sequence-to-sequence problem, treating the entire sentence as input rather than isolating individual words. Our findings reveal that the multilingual model consistently exhibits superior performance compared to monolingual counterparts. While our model did not surpass the performance of the current state-of-the-art, it demonstrated comparable efficacy with high-resource languages while revealing limitations in low-resource language scenarios.

Tokenization plays a pivotal role in natural language processing (NLP), shaping how text is segmented and interpreted by language models. While subword methods such as Byte Pair Encoding (BPE) and WordPiece have been effective, they often struggle with morphologically rich and agglutinative languages because they rely on frequency rather than linguistic structure. We introduce a hybrid tokenization framework that combines rule-based morphological analysis with statistical subword segmentation. The method uses phonological normalization, root-affix dictionaries, and a novel algorithm that balances morpheme preservation with vocabulary efficiency. It assigns shared identifiers to phonologically variant affixes (e.g., -ler and -lar) and altered root forms (e.g., kitap vs. kitab{\i}), reducing redundancy while maintaining semantic integrity. Special tokens are added for whitespace and case, including an UPPERCASE marker to avoid vocabulary inflation from capitalization. BPE is integrated for out-of-vocabulary coverage without harming morphological coherence. On the TR-MMLU benchmark, the tokenizer achieves the highest Turkish Token Percentage (90.29\%) and Pure Token Percentage (85.8\%). Comparisons with tokenizers from LLaMA, Gemma, and GPT show more linguistically meaningful and coherent tokens. Although demonstrated on Turkish, the approach is language-independent and adaptable to other languages, offering a practical path toward more interpretable and effective multilingual NLP systems.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently been applied to forecasting tasks, with some works claiming these systems match or exceed human performance. In this paper, we argue that, as a community, we should be careful about such conclusions as evaluating LLM forecasters presents unique challenges. We identify two broad categories of issues: (1) difficulty in trusting evaluation results due to many forms of temporal leakage, and (2) difficulty in extrapolating from evaluation performance to real-world forecasting. Through systematic analysis and concrete examples from prior work, we demonstrate how evaluation flaws can raise concerns about current and future performance claims. We argue that more rigorous evaluation methodologies are needed to confidently assess the forecasting abilities of LLMs.

We present a joint forecasting framework for time series prediction that contrasts with traditional direct or recursive methods. This framework achieves state-of-the-art performance for our designed foundation model, YingLong, and reveals a novel scaling effect: longer outputs significantly enhance model accuracy due to delayed chain-of-thought reasoning in our non-causal approach. YingLong is a non-causal, bidirectional attention encoder-only transformer trained through masked token recovery, aligning more effectively with language understanding tasks than with generation tasks. Additionally, we boost performance by tackling output variance with a multi-input ensemble. We release four foundation models ranging from 6M to 300M parameters, demonstrating superior results in zero-shot tasks on the ETT and Weather datasets. YingLong achieves more than 60% best performance. To ensure generalizability, we assessed the models using the GIFT-Eval benchmark, which comprises 23 time series datasets across 7 domains. Yinglong significantly outperformed the best time-series foundation models, end-to-end trained models by 14% and 44% in rank respectively.The pretrained 300M model is available at https://huggingface.co/qcw1314/YingLong_300m

The widespread adoption of scalable mobile sensing has led to large amounts of time series data for real-world applications. A fundamental application is multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF), which aims to predict future time series values based on historical observations. Existing MTSF methods suffer from limited parameterization and small-scale training data. Recently, Large language models (LLMs) have been introduced in time series, which achieve promising forecasting performance but incur heavy computational costs. To solve these challenges, we propose TimeCMA, an LLM-empowered framework for time series forecasting with cross-modality alignment. We design a dual-modality encoding module with two branches, where the time series encoding branch extracts relatively low-quality yet pure embeddings of time series through an inverted Transformer. In addition, the LLM-empowered encoding branch wraps the same time series as prompts to obtain high-quality yet entangled prompt embeddings via a Pre-trained LLM. Then, we design a cross-modality alignment module to retrieve high-quality and pure time series embeddings from the prompt embeddings. Moreover, we develop a time series forecasting module to decode the aligned embeddings while capturing dependencies among multiple variables for forecasting. Notably, we tailor the prompt to encode sufficient temporal information into a last token and design the last token embedding storage to reduce computational costs. Extensive experiments on real data offer insight into the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed framework.

Time series forecasting is central to decision-making in domains as diverse as energy, finance, climate, and public health. In practice, forecasters face thousands of short, noisy series that vary in frequency, quality, and horizon, where the dominant cost lies not in model fitting, but in the labor-intensive preprocessing, validation, and ensembling required to obtain reliable predictions. Prevailing statistical and deep learning models are tailored to specific datasets or domains and generalize poorly. A general, domain-agnostic framework that minimizes human intervention is urgently in demand. In this paper, we introduce TimeSeriesScientist (TSci), the first LLM-driven agentic framework for general time series forecasting. The framework comprises four specialized agents: Curator performs LLM-guided diagnostics augmented by external tools that reason over data statistics to choose targeted preprocessing; Planner narrows the hypothesis space of model choice by leveraging multi-modal diagnostics and self-planning over the input; Forecaster performs model fitting and validation and, based on the results, adaptively selects the best model configuration as well as ensemble strategy to make final predictions; and Reporter synthesizes the whole process into a comprehensive, transparent report. With transparent natural-language rationales and comprehensive reports, TSci transforms the forecasting workflow into a white-box system that is both interpretable and extensible across tasks. Empirical results on eight established benchmarks demonstrate that TSci consistently outperforms both statistical and LLM-based baselines, reducing forecast error by an average of 10.4% and 38.2%, respectively. Moreover, TSci produces a clear and rigorous report that makes the forecasting workflow more transparent and interpretable.

Syntactic parsing remains a critical tool for relation extraction and information extraction, especially in resource-scarce languages where LLMs are lacking. Yet in morphologically rich languages (MRLs), where parsers need to identify multiple lexical units in each token, existing systems suffer in latency and setup complexity. Some use a pipeline to peel away the layers: first segmentation, then morphology tagging, and then syntax parsing; however, errors in earlier layers are then propagated forward. Others use a joint architecture to evaluate all permutations at once; while this improves accuracy, it is notoriously slow. In contrast, and taking Hebrew as a test case, we present a new "flipped pipeline": decisions are made directly on the whole-token units by expert classifiers, each one dedicated to one specific task. The classifiers are independent of one another, and only at the end do we synthesize their predictions. This blazingly fast approach sets a new SOTA in Hebrew POS tagging and dependency parsing, while also reaching near-SOTA performance on other Hebrew NLP tasks. Because our architecture does not rely on any language-specific resources, it can serve as a model to develop similar parsers for other MRLs.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

This study presents the development of a part-of-speech (POS) tagging model to extract the skeletal structure of sentences using transfer learning with the BERT architecture for token classification. The model, fine-tuned on Russian text, demonstrating its effectiveness. The approach offers potential applications in enhancing natural language processing tasks, such as improving machine translation. Keywords: part of speech tagging, morphological analysis, natural language processing, BERT.

In this work, we leverage pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) to enhance time-series forecasting. Mirroring the growing interest in unifying models for Natural Language Processing and Computer Vision, we envision creating an analogous model for long-term time-series forecasting. Due to limited large-scale time-series data for building robust foundation models, our approach LLM4TS focuses on leveraging the strengths of pre-trained LLMs. By combining time-series patching with temporal encoding, we have enhanced the capability of LLMs to handle time-series data effectively. Inspired by the supervised fine-tuning in chatbot domains, we prioritize a two-stage fine-tuning process: first conducting supervised fine-tuning to orient the LLM towards time-series data, followed by task-specific downstream fine-tuning. Furthermore, to unlock the flexibility of pre-trained LLMs without extensive parameter adjustments, we adopt several Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) techniques. Drawing on these innovations, LLM4TS has yielded state-of-the-art results in long-term forecasting. Our model has also shown exceptional capabilities as both a robust representation learner and an effective few-shot learner, thanks to the knowledge transferred from the pre-trained LLM.

While LLMs have demonstrated remarkable potential in time series forecasting, their practical deployment remains constrained by excessive computational demands and memory footprints. Existing LLM-based approaches typically suffer from three critical limitations: Inefficient parameter utilization in handling numerical time series patterns; Modality misalignment between continuous temporal signals and discrete text embeddings; and Inflexibility for real-time expert knowledge integration. We present SMETimes, the first systematic investigation of sub-3B parameter SLMs for efficient and accurate time series forecasting. Our approach centers on three key innovations: A statistically-enhanced prompting mechanism that bridges numerical time series with textual semantics through descriptive statistical features; A adaptive fusion embedding architecture that aligns temporal patterns with language model token spaces through learnable parameters; And a dynamic mixture-of-experts framework enabled by SLMs' computational efficiency, adaptively combining base predictions with domain-specific models. Extensive evaluations across seven benchmark datasets demonstrate that our 3B-parameter SLM achieves state-of-the-art performance on five primary datasets while maintaining 3.8x faster training and 5.2x lower memory consumption compared to 7B-parameter LLM baselines. Notably, the proposed model exhibits better learning capabilities, achieving 12.3% lower MSE than conventional LLM. Ablation studies validate that our statistical prompting and cross-modal fusion modules respectively contribute 15.7% and 18.2% error reduction in long-horizon forecasting tasks. By redefining the efficiency-accuracy trade-off landscape, this work establishes SLMs as viable alternatives to resource-intensive LLMs for practical time series forecasting. Code and models are available at https://github.com/xiyan1234567/SMETimes.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

Recent research has shown that large language models (LLMs) can be effectively used for real-world time series forecasting due to their strong natural language understanding capabilities. However, aligning time series into semantic spaces of LLMs comes with high computational costs and inference complexity, particularly for long-range time series generation. Building on recent advancements in using linear models for time series, this paper introduces an LLM-enhanced mixture of linear experts for precise and efficient time series forecasting. This approach involves developing a mixture of linear experts with multiple lookback lengths and a new multimodal fusion mechanism. The use of a mixture of linear experts is efficient due to its simplicity, while the multimodal fusion mechanism adaptively combines multiple linear experts based on the learned features of the text modality from pre-trained large language models. In experiments, we rethink the need to align time series to LLMs by existing time-series large language models and further discuss their efficiency and effectiveness in time series forecasting. Our experimental results show that the proposed LeMoLE model presents lower prediction errors and higher computational efficiency than existing LLM models.

Recent advances in NLP have led to the creation of powerful language models for many languages including Ancient Greek and Latin. While prior work on Classical languages unanimously uses BERT, in this work we create four language models for Ancient Greek that vary along two dimensions to study their versatility for tasks of interest for Classical languages: we explore (i) encoder-only and encoder-decoder architectures using RoBERTa and T5 as strong model types, and create for each of them (ii) a monolingual Ancient Greek and a multilingual instance that includes Latin and English. We evaluate all models on morphological and syntactic tasks, including lemmatization, which demonstrates the added value of T5's decoding abilities. We further define two probing tasks to investigate the knowledge acquired by models pre-trained on Classical texts. Our experiments provide the first benchmarking analysis of existing models of Ancient Greek. Results show that our models provide significant improvements over the SoTA. The systematic analysis of model types can inform future research in designing language models for Classical languages, including the development of novel generative tasks. We make all our models available as community resources, along with a large curated pre-training corpus for Ancient Greek, to support the creation of a larger, comparable model zoo for Classical Philology. Our models and resources are available at https://github.com/Heidelberg-NLP/ancient-language-models.

Human experts typically integrate numerical and textual multimodal information to analyze time series. However, most traditional deep learning predictors rely solely on unimodal numerical data, using a fixed-length window for training and prediction on a single dataset, and cannot adapt to different scenarios. The powered pre-trained large language model has introduced new opportunities for time series analysis. Yet, existing methods are either inefficient in training, incapable of handling textual information, or lack zero-shot forecasting capability. In this paper, we innovatively model time series as a foreign language and construct ChatTime, a unified framework for time series and text processing. As an out-of-the-box multimodal time series foundation model, ChatTime provides zero-shot forecasting capability and supports bimodal input/output for both time series and text. We design a series of experiments to verify the superior performance of ChatTime across multiple tasks and scenarios, and create four multimodal datasets to address data gaps. The experimental results demonstrate the potential and utility of ChatTime.

Recent work attributes progress in NLP to large language models (LMs) with increased model size and large quantities of pretraining data. Despite this, current state-of-the-art LMs for Hebrew are both under-parameterized and under-trained compared to LMs in other languages. Additionally, previous work on pretrained Hebrew LMs focused on encoder-only models. While the encoder-only architecture is beneficial for classification tasks, it does not cater well for sub-word prediction tasks, such as Named Entity Recognition, when considering the morphologically rich nature of Hebrew. In this paper we argue that sequence-to-sequence generative architectures are more suitable for LLMs in the case of morphologically rich languages (MRLs) such as Hebrew. We demonstrate that by casting tasks in the Hebrew NLP pipeline as text-to-text tasks, we can leverage powerful multilingual, pretrained sequence-to-sequence models as mT5, eliminating the need for a specialized, morpheme-based, separately fine-tuned decoder. Using this approach, our experiments show substantial improvements over previously published results on existing Hebrew NLP benchmarks. These results suggest that multilingual sequence-to-sequence models present a promising building block for NLP for MRLs.

Recent efforts have been dedicated to enhancing time series forecasting accuracy by introducing advanced network architectures and self-supervised pretraining strategies. Nevertheless, existing approaches still exhibit two critical drawbacks. Firstly, these methods often rely on a single dataset for training, limiting the model's generalizability due to the restricted scale of the training data. Secondly, the one-step generation schema is widely followed, which necessitates a customized forecasting head and overlooks the temporal dependencies in the output series, and also leads to increased training costs under different horizon length settings. To address these issues, we propose a novel generative pretrained hierarchical transformer architecture for forecasting, named GPHT. There are two aspects of key designs in GPHT. On the one hand, we advocate for constructing a mixed dataset for pretraining our model, comprising various datasets from diverse data scenarios. This approach significantly expands the scale of training data, allowing our model to uncover commonalities in time series data and facilitating improved transfer to specific datasets. On the other hand, GPHT employs an auto-regressive forecasting approach under the channel-independent assumption, effectively modeling temporal dependencies in the output series. Importantly, no customized forecasting head is required, enabling a single model to forecast at arbitrary horizon settings. We conduct sufficient experiments on eight datasets with mainstream self-supervised pretraining models and supervised models. The results demonstrated that GPHT surpasses the baseline models across various fine-tuning and zero/few-shot learning settings in the traditional long-term forecasting task, providing support for verifying the feasibility of pretrained time series large models.

This technical report describes the AIA Forecaster, a Large Language Model (LLM)-based system for judgmental forecasting using unstructured data. The AIA Forecaster approach combines three core elements: agentic search over high-quality news sources, a supervisor agent that reconciles disparate forecasts for the same event, and a set of statistical calibration techniques to counter behavioral biases in large language models. On the ForecastBench benchmark (Karger et al., 2024), the AIA Forecaster achieves performance equal to human superforecasters, surpassing prior LLM baselines. In addition to reporting on ForecastBench, we also introduce a more challenging forecasting benchmark sourced from liquid prediction markets. While the AIA Forecaster underperforms market consensus on this benchmark, an ensemble combining AIA Forecaster with market consensus outperforms consensus alone, demonstrating that our forecaster provides additive information. Our work establishes a new state of the art in AI forecasting and provides practical, transferable recommendations for future research. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that verifiably achieves expert-level forecasting at scale.

The success of large pretrained models in natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV) has opened new avenues for constructing foundation models for time series forecasting (TSF). Traditional TSF foundation models rely heavily on numerical data fitting. In contrast, the human brain is inherently skilled at processing visual information, prefer predicting future trends by observing visualized sequences. From a biomimetic perspective, utilizing models to directly process numerical sequences might not be the most effective route to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This paper proposes ViTime, a novel Visual Intelligence-based foundation model for TSF. ViTime overcomes the limitations of numerical time series data fitting by utilizing visual data processing paradigms and employs a innovative data synthesis method during training, called Real Time Series (RealTS). Experiments on a diverse set of previously unseen forecasting datasets demonstrate that ViTime achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance, even surpassing the best individually trained supervised models in some situations. These findings suggest that visual intelligence can significantly enhance time series analysis and forecasting, paving the way for more advanced and versatile models in the field. The code for our framework is accessible at https://github.com/IkeYang/ViTime.

Tokenization is an important text preprocessing step to prepare input tokens for deep language models. WordPiece and BPE are de facto methods employed by important models, such as BERT and GPT. However, the impact of tokenization can be different for morphologically rich languages, such as Turkic languages, where many words can be generated by adding prefixes and suffixes. We compare five tokenizers at different granularity levels, i.e. their outputs vary from smallest pieces of characters to the surface form of words, including a Morphological-level tokenizer. We train these tokenizers and pretrain medium-sized language models using RoBERTa pretraining procedure on the Turkish split of the OSCAR corpus. We then fine-tune our models on six downstream tasks. Our experiments, supported by statistical tests, reveal that Morphological-level tokenizer has challenging performance with de facto tokenizers. Furthermore, we find that increasing the vocabulary size improves the performance of Morphological and Word-level tokenizers more than that of de facto tokenizers. The ratio of the number of vocabulary parameters to the total number of model parameters can be empirically chosen as 20% for de facto tokenizers and 40% for other tokenizers to obtain a reasonable trade-off between model size and performance.

Recent research on time series foundation models has primarily focused on forecasting, leaving it unclear how generalizable their learned representations are. In this study, we examine whether frozen pre-trained forecasting models can provide effective representations for classification. To this end, we compare different representation extraction strategies and introduce two model-agnostic embedding augmentations. Our experiments show that the best forecasting models achieve classification accuracy that matches or even surpasses that of state-of-the-art models pre-trained specifically for classification. Moreover, we observe a positive correlation between forecasting and classification performance. These findings challenge the assumption that task-specific pre-training is necessary, and suggest that learning to forecast may provide a powerful route toward constructing general-purpose time series foundation models.

A major consideration in multilingual language modeling is how to best represent languages with diverse vocabularies and scripts. Although contemporary text encoding methods cover most of the world's writing systems, they exhibit bias towards the high-resource languages of the Global West. As a result, texts of underrepresented languages tend to be segmented into long sequences of linguistically meaningless units. To address the disparities, we introduce a new paradigm that encodes the same information with segments of consistent size across diverse languages. Our encoding convention (MYTE) is based on morphemes, as their inventories are more balanced across languages than characters, which are used in previous methods. We show that MYTE produces shorter encodings for all 99 analyzed languages, with the most notable improvements for non-European languages and non-Latin scripts. This, in turn, improves multilingual LM performance and diminishes the perplexity gap throughout diverse languages.

Deep learning for time series forecasting has seen significant advancements over the past decades. However, despite the success of large-scale pre-training in language and vision domains, pre-trained time series models remain limited in scale and operate at a high cost, hindering the development of larger capable forecasting models in real-world applications. In response, we introduce Time-MoE, a scalable and unified architecture designed to pre-train larger, more capable forecasting foundation models while reducing inference costs. By leveraging a sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) design, Time-MoE enhances computational efficiency by activating only a subset of networks for each prediction, reducing computational load while maintaining high model capacity. This allows Time-MoE to scale effectively without a corresponding increase in inference costs. Time-MoE comprises a family of decoder-only transformer models that operate in an auto-regressive manner and support flexible forecasting horizons with varying input context lengths. We pre-trained these models on our newly introduced large-scale data Time-300B, which spans over 9 domains and encompassing over 300 billion time points. For the first time, we scaled a time series foundation model up to 2.4 billion parameters, achieving significantly improved forecasting precision. Our results validate the applicability of scaling laws for training tokens and model size in the context of time series forecasting. Compared to dense models with the same number of activated parameters or equivalent computation budgets, our models consistently outperform them by large margin. These advancements position Time-MoE as a state-of-the-art solution for tackling real-world time series forecasting challenges with superior capability, efficiency, and flexibility.

Time series forecasting always faces the challenge of concept drift, where data distributions evolve over time, leading to a decline in forecast model performance. Existing solutions are based on online learning, which continually organize recent time series observations as new training samples and update model parameters according to the forecasting feedback on recent data. However, they overlook a critical issue: obtaining ground-truth future values of each sample should be delayed until after the forecast horizon. This delay creates a temporal gap between the training samples and the test sample. Our empirical analysis reveals that the gap can introduce concept drift, causing forecast models to adapt to outdated concepts. In this paper, we present Proceed, a novel proactive model adaptation framework for online time series forecasting. Proceed first estimates the concept drift between the recently used training samples and the current test sample. It then employs an adaptation generator to efficiently translate the estimated drift into parameter adjustments, proactively adapting the model to the test sample. To enhance the generalization capability of the framework, Proceed is trained on synthetic diverse concept drifts. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets across various forecast models demonstrate that Proceed brings more performance improvements than the state-of-the-art online learning methods, significantly facilitating forecast models' resilience against concept drifts. Code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-DMTai/OnlineTSF.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

While subword tokenizers such as BPE and WordPiece are typically used to build vocabularies for NLP models, the method of decoding text into a sequence of tokens from these vocabularies is often left unspecified, or ill-suited to the method in which they were constructed. We provide a controlled analysis of seven tokenizer inference methods across four different algorithms and three vocabulary sizes, performed on a novel intrinsic evaluation suite we curated for English, combining measures rooted in morphology, cognition, and information theory. We show that for the most commonly used tokenizers, greedy inference performs surprisingly well; and that SaGe, a recently-introduced contextually-informed tokenizer, outperforms all others on morphological alignment.

In recent years, generative pre-trained paradigms such as Large Language Models (LLMs) and Large Vision Models (LVMs) have achieved revolutionary advancements and widespread real-world applications. Particularly, the emergence of pre-trained LLMs-based temporal works, compared to previous deep model approaches, has demonstrated superior generalization and robustness, showcasing the potential of generative pre-trained paradigms as foundation models for time series. However, those LLMs-based works mainly focus on cross-modal research, i.e., leveraging the language capabilities of LLMs in time series contexts. Although they have achieved impressive performance, there still exist the issues of concept drift caused by differences in data distribution and inflexibility caused by misalignment of dimensions. To this end, inspired by recent work on LVMs, we reconsider the paradigm of time series modeling. In this paper, we comprehensively explore, for the first time, the effectiveness and superiority of the Generative Pre-trained Diffusion (GPD) paradigm in real-world multivariate time series forecasting (TSF). Specifically, to mitigate performance bias introduced by sophisticated networks, we propose a straightforward MLP diffusion network for unconditional modeling of time series. Then we employ a zero-shot and tuning-free method to predict (generate) future data using historical data as prompts. The GPD paradigm is established on the time series modality, effectively preventing the phenomenon of concept drift, and enabling flexible forecasting of arbitrary lengths. We demonstrate that the GPD paradigm achieves comprehensive performance and generalization comparable to current SOTA LLM-based and deep model paradigms on mainstream benchmarks and various TSF tasks. Extensive experiments validate the potential of the GPD paradigm and its assistance in future related research.

Recent dynamic tokenisation methods operate directly on bytes and pool their latent representations into patches. This bears similarities to computational models of word segmentation that determine lexical boundaries using spikes in an autoregressive model's prediction error. Inspired by this connection, we explore whether grouping predictable bytes - rather than pooling their representations - can yield a useful fixed subword vocabulary. We propose a new information-driven subword tokeniser, ByteSpan, that uses an external byte-level LM during training to identify contiguous predictable byte sequences and group them into subwords. Experiments show that ByteSpan yields efficient vocabularies with higher morphological alignment scores than BPE for English. Multilingual experiments show similar compression and R\'enyi efficiency for 25 languages.

In most cases, word embeddings are learned only from raw tokens or in some cases, lemmas. This includes pre-trained language models like BERT. To investigate on the potential of capturing deeper relations between lexical items and structures and to filter out redundant information, we propose to preserve the morphological, syntactic and other types of linguistic information by combining them with the raw tokens or lemmas. This means, for example, including parts-of-speech or dependency information within the used lexical features. The word embeddings can then be trained on the combinations instead of just raw tokens. It is also possible to later apply this method to the pre-training of huge language models and possibly enhance their performance. This would aid in tackling problems which are more sophisticated from the point of view of linguistic representation, such as detection of cyberbullying.

We analyze the growth of dataset sizes used in machine learning for natural language processing and computer vision, and extrapolate these using two methods; using the historical growth rate and estimating the compute-optimal dataset size for future predicted compute budgets. We investigate the growth in data usage by estimating the total stock of unlabeled data available on the internet over the coming decades. Our analysis indicates that the stock of high-quality language data will be exhausted soon; likely before 2026. By contrast, the stock of low-quality language data and image data will be exhausted only much later; between 2030 and 2050 (for low-quality language) and between 2030 and 2060 (for images). Our work suggests that the current trend of ever-growing ML models that rely on enormous datasets might slow down if data efficiency is not drastically improved or new sources of data become available.

This paper analyses the degree to which dialect classifiers based on syntactic representations remain stable over space and time. While previous work has shown that the combination of grammar induction and geospatial text classification produces robust dialect models, we do not know what influence both changing grammars and changing populations have on dialect models. This paper constructs a test set for 12 dialects of English that spans three years at monthly intervals with a fixed spatial distribution across 1,120 cities. Syntactic representations are formulated within the usage-based Construction Grammar paradigm (CxG). The decay rate of classification performance for each dialect over time allows us to identify regions undergoing syntactic change. And the distribution of classification accuracy within dialect regions allows us to identify the degree to which the grammar of a dialect is internally heterogeneous. The main contribution of this paper is to show that a rigorous evaluation of dialect classification models can be used to find both variation over space and change over time.

Acceleration of large language model pre-training is a critical issue in present NLP research. In this paper, we focus on speeding up pre-training by progressively growing from a small Transformer structure to a large one. There are two main research problems related to progressive growth: growth schedule and growth operator. For growth schedule, existing work has explored multi-stage expansion of depth and feedforward layers. However, the impact of each dimension on the schedule's efficiency is still an open question. For growth operator, existing work relies on the initialization of new weights to inherit knowledge, and achieve only non-strict function preservation, limiting further optimization of training dynamics. To address these issues, we propose Masked Structural Growth (MSG), including growth schedules involving all possible dimensions and strictly function-preserving growth operators that is independent of the initialization of new weights. Experiments show that MSG is significantly faster than related work: we achieve a speed-up of 80% for Bert-base and 120% for Bert-large pre-training. Moreover, MSG is able to improve fine-tuning performances at the same time.

Transformer language models typically operate with a fixed-length context window, which has grown in step with large-scale pretraining datasets. In the BabyLM Challenge, however, many past submissions have defaulted to using much shorter sequence lengths. We examine the impact of sequence length on BabyLM pretraining, to answer the simple question: what sequence length should we be using when training Baby LMs? Using 100M-word training data and fixed compute budgets, we compare 125M-parameter Mamba and OPT models, finding that although longer is often better, the optimal length depends on both task and architecture. Shorter sequences are sufficient for grammatical generalization tasks whereas longer contexts benefit morphological analogical reasoning tasks.

Computational historical linguistics seeks to systematically understand processes of sound change, including during periods at which little to no formal recording of language is attested. At the same time, few computational resources exist which deeply explore phonological and morphological connections between proto-languages and their descendants. This is particularly true for the family of Italic languages. To assist historical linguists in the study of Italic sound change, we introduce the Proto-Italic to Latin (PILA) dataset, which consists of roughly 3,000 pairs of forms from Proto-Italic and Latin. We provide a detailed description of how our dataset was created and organized. Then, we exhibit PILA's value in two ways. First, we present baseline results for PILA on a pair of traditional computational historical linguistics tasks. Second, we demonstrate PILA's capability for enhancing other historical-linguistic datasets through a dataset compatibility study.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs), such as recent Qwen and Gemini models, are positioned as general-purpose AI systems capable of reasoning across domains. Yet their capabilities in scientific imaging, especially on unfamiliar and potentially previously unseen data distributions, remain poorly understood. In this work, we assess whether generic VLMs, presumed to lack exposure to astronomical corpora, can perform morphology-based classification of radio galaxies using the MiraBest FR-I/FR-II dataset. We explore prompting strategies using natural language and schematic diagrams, and, to the best of our knowledge, we are the first to introduce visual in-context examples within prompts in astronomy. Additionally, we evaluate lightweight supervised adaptation via LoRA fine-tuning. Our findings reveal three trends: (i) even prompt-based approaches can achieve good performance, suggesting that VLMs encode useful priors for unfamiliar scientific domains; (ii) however, outputs are highly unstable, i.e. varying sharply with superficial prompt changes such as layout, ordering, or decoding temperature, even when semantic content is held constant; and (iii) with just 15M trainable parameters and no astronomy-specific pretraining, fine-tuned Qwen-VL achieves near state-of-the-art performance (3% Error rate), rivaling domain-specific models. These results suggest that the apparent "reasoning" of VLMs often reflects prompt sensitivity rather than genuine inference, raising caution for their use in scientific domains. At the same time, with minimal adaptation, generic VLMs can rival specialized models, offering a promising but fragile tool for scientific discovery.

High-stakes decision making involves reasoning under uncertainty about the future. In this work, we train language models to make predictions on open-ended forecasting questions. To scale up training data, we synthesize novel forecasting questions from global events reported in daily news, using a fully automated, careful curation recipe. We train the Qwen3 thinking models on our dataset, OpenForesight. To prevent leakage of future information during training and evaluation, we use an offline news corpus, both for data generation and retrieval in our forecasting system. Guided by a small validation set, we show the benefits of retrieval, and an improved reward function for reinforcement learning (RL). Once we obtain our final forecasting system, we perform held-out testing between May to August 2025. Our specialized model, OpenForecaster 8B, matches much larger proprietary models, with our training improving the accuracy, calibration, and consistency of predictions. We find calibration improvements from forecasting training generalize across popular benchmarks. We open-source all our models, code, and data to make research on language model forecasting broadly accessible.

Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) endeavors to predict future observations given historical data, playing a crucial role in time series data management systems. With advancements in large language models (LLMs), recent studies employ textual prompt tuning to infuse the knowledge of LLMs into MTSF. However, the deployment of LLMs often suffers from low efficiency during the inference phase. To address this problem, we introduce TimeKD, an efficient MTSF framework that leverages the calibrated language models and privileged knowledge distillation. TimeKD aims to generate high-quality future representations from the proposed cross-modality teacher model and cultivate an effective student model. The cross-modality teacher model adopts calibrated language models (CLMs) with ground truth prompts, motivated by the paradigm of Learning Under Privileged Information (LUPI). In addition, we design a subtractive cross attention (SCA) mechanism to refine these representations. To cultivate an effective student model, we propose an innovative privileged knowledge distillation (PKD) mechanism including correlation and feature distillation. PKD enables the student to replicate the teacher's behavior while minimizing their output discrepancy. Extensive experiments on real data offer insight into the effectiveness, efficiency, and scalability of the proposed TimeKD.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

Large language models (LLMs) are being applied to time series forecasting. But are language models actually useful for time series? In a series of ablation studies on three recent and popular LLM-based time series forecasting methods, we find that removing the LLM component or replacing it with a basic attention layer does not degrade forecasting performance -- in most cases, the results even improve! We also find that despite their significant computational cost, pretrained LLMs do no better than models trained from scratch, do not represent the sequential dependencies in time series, and do not assist in few-shot settings. Additionally, we explore time series encoders and find that patching and attention structures perform similarly to LLM-based forecasters.

Large Language Models (LLMs) and Foundation Models (FMs) have recently become prevalent for time series forecasting tasks. While fine-tuning LLMs enables domain adaptation, they often struggle to generalize across diverse and unseen datasets. Moreover, existing Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) still face challenges in handling non-stationary dynamics and distribution shifts, largely due to the lack of effective mechanisms for adaptation. To this end, we present TS-RAG, a retrieval-augmented generation framework for time series forecasting that enhances the generalization and interpretability of TSFMs. Specifically, TS-RAG leverages pre-trained time series encoders to retrieve semantically relevant segments from a dedicated knowledge base, enriching the contextual representation of the input query. Furthermore, we propose an Adaptive Retrieval Mixer (ARM) module that dynamically fuses the retrieved patterns with the TSFM's internal representation, improving forecasting accuracy without requiring task-specific fine-tuning. Thorough empirical studies on seven public benchmark datasets demonstrate that TS-RAG achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot forecasting performance, outperforming the existing TSFMs by up to 6.84% across diverse domains while also providing desirable interpretability. Our code and data are available at: https://github.com/UConn-DSIS/TS-RAG

Time series forecasting (TSF) remains a challenging and largely unsolved problem in machine learning, despite significant recent efforts leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs), which predominantly rely on Transformer architectures. Empirical evidence consistently shows that even powerful Transformers often fail to outperform much simpler models, e.g., linear models, on TSF tasks; however, a rigorous theoretical understanding of this phenomenon remains limited. In this paper, we provide a theoretical analysis of Transformers' limitations for TSF through the lens of In-Context Learning (ICL) theory. Specifically, under AR(p) data, we establish that: (1) Linear Self-Attention (LSA) models cannot achieve lower expected MSE than classical linear models for in-context forecasting; (2) as the context length approaches to infinity, LSA asymptotically recovers the optimal linear predictor; and (3) under Chain-of-Thought (CoT) style inference, predictions collapse to the mean exponentially. We empirically validate these findings through carefully designed experiments. Our theory not only sheds light on several previously underexplored phenomena but also offers practical insights for designing more effective forecasting architectures. We hope our work encourages the broader research community to revisit the fundamental theoretical limitations of TSF and to critically evaluate the direct application of increasingly sophisticated architectures without deeper scrutiny.

Inspired by recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) for Natural Language Processing (NLP), there has been a surge in research focused on developing foundational models for time series forecasting. One approach involves training LLM architectures on tokenized time series data using cross-entropy loss. Although this method has demonstrated promising results, cross-entropy loss is primarily designed for classification tasks and does not account for the distance between classes. To address this limitation, we propose using the Wasserstein loss for such architectures. To validate our approach, we fine-tuned a foundational time series model on 22 zero-shot datasets, comparing the performance of cross-entropy loss with that of Wasserstein loss. Our results demonstrate that replacing cross-entropy loss with Wasserstein loss significantly improves point estimation.

Background: Electronic Health Records hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Existing approaches focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. We explore how temporal modelling of patients from free text and structured data, using deep generative transformers can be used to forecast a wide range of future disorders, substances, procedures or findings. Methods: We present Foresight, a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, substances, procedures and findings. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets totalling 811336 patients covering both physical and mental health. Findings: On tests in two UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 0.68, 0.76 and 0.88 was achieved for forecasting the next disorder in a patient timeline, while precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, it can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. Interpretation: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and educational purposes.

In recent years, language models have become increasingly larger and more complex. However, the input representations for these models continue to rely on simple and greedy subword tokenization methods. In this paper, we propose a novel tokenization method that factorizes subwords onto discrete triplets using a VQ-VAE model. The effectiveness of the proposed tokenization method, referred to as the Factorizer, is evaluated on language modeling and morpho-syntactic tasks for 7 diverse languages. Results indicate that this method is more appropriate and robust for morphological tasks than the commonly used byte-pair encoding (BPE) tokenization algorithm.

In this thesis, we developed a comprehensive framework for sentiment analysis that takes its many aspects into account mainly for Turkish. We have also proposed several approaches specific to sentiment analysis in English only. We have accordingly made five major and three minor contributions. We generated a novel and effective feature set by combining unsupervised, semi-supervised, and supervised metrics. We then fed them as input into classical machine learning methods, and outperformed neural network models for datasets of different genres in both Turkish and English. We created a polarity lexicon with a semi-supervised domain-specific method, which has been the first approach applied for corpora in Turkish. We performed a fine morphological analysis for the sentiment classification task in Turkish by determining the polarities of morphemes. This can be adapted to other morphologically-rich or agglutinative languages as well. We have built a novel neural network architecture, which combines recurrent and recursive neural network models for English. We built novel word embeddings that exploit sentiment, syntactic, semantic, and lexical characteristics for both Turkish and English. We also redefined context windows as subclauses in modelling word representations in English. This can also be applied to other linguistic fields and natural language processing tasks. We have achieved state-of-the-art and significant results for all these original approaches. Our minor contributions include methods related to aspect-based sentiment in Turkish, parameter redefinition in the semi-supervised approach, and aspect term extraction techniques for English. This thesis can be considered the most detailed and comprehensive study made on sentiment analysis in Turkish as of July, 2020. Our work has also contributed to the opinion classification problem in English.

Accurate probabilistic weather forecasting demands both high accuracy and efficient uncertainty quantification, challenges that overburden both ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) and recent machine-learning methods. We introduce LaDCast, the first global latent-diffusion framework for medium-range ensemble forecasting, which generates hourly ensemble forecasts entirely in a learned latent space. An autoencoder compresses high-dimensional ERA5 reanalysis fields into a compact representation, and a transformer-based diffusion model produces sequential latent updates with arbitrary hour initialization. The model incorporates Geometric Rotary Position Embedding (GeoRoPE) to account for the Earth's spherical geometry, a dual-stream attention mechanism for efficient conditioning, and sinusoidal temporal embeddings to capture seasonal patterns. LaDCast achieves deterministic and probabilistic skill close to that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecast IFS-ENS, without any explicit perturbations. Notably, LaDCast demonstrates superior performance in tracking rare extreme events such as cyclones, capturing their trajectories more accurately than established models. By operating in latent space, LaDCast reduces storage and compute by orders of magnitude, demonstrating a practical path toward forecasting at kilometer-scale resolution in real time. We open-source our code and models and provide the training and evaluation pipelines at: https://github.com/tonyzyl/ladcast.

Extremely low-resource (XLR) languages lack substantial corpora for training NLP models, motivating the use of all available resources such as dictionaries and grammar books. Machine Translation from One Book (Tanzer et al., 2024) suggests that prompting long-context LLMs with one grammar book enables English-Kalamang translation, an XLR language unseen by LLMs - a noteworthy case of linguistics helping an NLP task. We investigate the source of this translation ability, finding almost all improvements stem from the book's parallel examples rather than its grammatical explanations. We find similar results for Nepali and Guarani, seen low-resource languages, and we achieve performance comparable to an LLM with a grammar book by simply fine-tuning an encoder-decoder translation model. We then investigate where grammar books help by testing two linguistic tasks, grammaticality judgment and gloss prediction, and we explore what kind of grammatical knowledge helps by introducing a typological feature prompt that achieves leading results on these more relevant tasks. We thus emphasise the importance of task-appropriate data for XLR languages: parallel examples for translation, and grammatical data for linguistic tasks. As we find no evidence that long-context LLMs can make effective use of grammatical explanations for XLR translation, we conclude data collection for multilingual XLR tasks such as translation is best focused on parallel data over linguistic description.

Forecasting from partial observations is central to world modeling. Many recent methods represent the world through images, and reduce forecasting to stochastic video generation. Although such methods excel at realism and visual fidelity, predicting pixels is computationally intensive and not directly useful in many applications, as it requires translating RGB into signals useful for decision making. An alternative approach uses features from vision foundation models (VFMs) as world representations, performing deterministic regression to predict future world states. These features can be directly translated into actionable signals such as semantic segmentation and depth, while remaining computationally efficient. However, deterministic regression averages over multiple plausible futures, undermining forecast accuracy by failing to capture uncertainty. To address this crucial limitation, we introduce a generative forecaster that performs autoregressive flow matching in VFM feature space. Our key insight is that generative modeling in this space requires encoding VFM features into a compact latent space suitable for diffusion. We show that this latent space preserves information more effectively than previously used PCA-based alternatives, both for forecasting and other applications, such as image generation. Our latent predictions can be easily decoded into multiple useful and interpretable output modalities: semantic segmentation, depth, surface normals, and even RGB. With matched architecture and compute, our method produces sharper and more accurate predictions than regression across all modalities. Our results suggest that stochastic conditional generation of VFM features offers a promising and scalable foundation for future world models.

Time series forecasting is a foundational task across domains, such as finance, healthcare, and environmental monitoring. While recent advances in Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have demonstrated strong generalisation through large-scale pretraining, existing models operate predominantly in a unimodal setting, ignoring the rich multimodal context, such as visual and textual signals, that often accompanies time series data in real-world scenarios. This paper introduces a novel parameter-efficient multimodal framework, UniCast, that extends TSFMs to jointly leverage time series, vision, and text modalities for enhanced forecasting performance. Our method integrates modality-specific embeddings from pretrained Vision and Text Encoders with a frozen TSFM via soft prompt tuning, enabling efficient adaptation with minimal parameter updates. This design not only preserves the generalisation strength of the foundation model but also enables effective cross-modal interaction. Extensive experiments across diverse time-series forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that UniCast consistently and significantly outperforms all existing TSFM baselines. The findings highlight the critical role of multimodal context in advancing the next generation of general-purpose time series forecasters.

Cross-domain generalization is very important in Time Series Forecasting because similar historical information may lead to distinct future trends due to the domain-specific characteristics. Recent works focus on building unimodal time series foundation models and end-to-end multimodal supervised models. Since domain-specific knowledge is often contained in modalities like texts, the former lacks the explicit utilization of them, thus hindering the performance. The latter is tailored for end-to-end scenarios and does not support zero-shot inference for cross-domain scenarios. In this work, we introduce Aurora, a Multimodal Time Series Foundation Model, which supports multimodal inputs and zero-shot inference. Pretrained on Corss-domain Multimodal Time Series Corpus, Aurora can adaptively extract and focus on key domain knowledge contained in corrsponding text or image modalities, thus possessing strong Cross-domain generalization capability. Through tokenization, encoding, and distillation, Aurora can extract multimodal domain knowledge as guidance and then utilizes a Modality-Guided Multi-head Self-Attention to inject them into the modeling of temporal representations. In the decoding phase, the multimodal representations are used to generate the conditions and prototypes of future tokens, contributing to a novel Prototype-Guided Flow Matching for generative probabilistic forecasting. Comprehensive experiments on well-recognized benchmarks, including TimeMMD, TSFM-Bench and ProbTS, demonstrate the consistent state-of-the-art performance of Aurora on both unimodal and multimodal scenarios.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

A key aspect of temporal domains is the ability to make predictions multiple time steps into the future, a process known as multi-step forecasting (MSF). At the core of this process is selecting a forecasting strategy, however, with no existing frameworks to map out the space of strategies, practitioners are left with ad-hoc methods for strategy selection. In this work, we propose Stratify, a parameterised framework that addresses multi-step forecasting, unifying existing strategies and introducing novel, improved strategies. We evaluate Stratify on 18 benchmark datasets, five function classes, and short to long forecast horizons (10, 20, 40, 80). In over 84% of 1080 experiments, novel strategies in Stratify improved performance compared to all existing ones. Importantly, we find that no single strategy consistently outperforms others in all task settings, highlighting the need for practitioners explore the Stratify space to carefully search and select forecasting strategies based on task-specific requirements. Our results are the most comprehensive benchmarking of known and novel forecasting strategies. We make code available to reproduce our results.

We introduce Sundial, a family of native, flexible, and scalable time series foundation models. To predict the next-patch's distribution, we propose a TimeFlow Loss based on flow-matching, which facilitates native pre-training of Transformers on time series without discrete tokenization. Conditioned on arbitrary-length time series, our model is pre-trained without specifying any prior distribution and can generate multiple probable predictions, achieving flexibility in representation learning beyond using parametric densities. Towards time series foundation models, we leverage minimal but crucial adaptations of Transformers and curate TimeBench with 1 trillion time points, comprising mostly real-world datasets and synthetic data. By mitigating mode collapse through TimeFlow Loss, we pre-train a family of Sundial models on TimeBench, which exhibit unprecedented model capacity and generalization performance on zero-shot forecasting. In addition to presenting good scaling behavior, Sundial achieves new state-of-the-art on both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting benchmarks. We believe that Sundial's pioneering generative paradigm will facilitate a wide variety of forecasting scenarios.

Multi-lingual language models (LM), such as mBERT, XLM-R, mT5, mBART, have been remarkably successful in enabling natural language tasks in low-resource languages through cross-lingual transfer from high-resource ones. In this work, we try to better understand how such models, specifically mT5, transfer *any* linguistic and semantic knowledge across languages, even though no explicit cross-lingual signals are provided during pre-training. Rather, only unannotated texts from each language are presented to the model separately and independently of one another, and the model appears to implicitly learn cross-lingual connections. This raises several questions that motivate our study, such as: Are the cross-lingual connections between every language pair equally strong? What properties of source and target language impact the strength of cross-lingual transfer? Can we quantify the impact of those properties on the cross-lingual transfer? In our investigation, we analyze a pre-trained mT5 to discover the attributes of cross-lingual connections learned by the model. Through a statistical interpretation framework over 90 language pairs across three tasks, we show that transfer performance can be modeled by a few linguistic and data-derived features. These observations enable us to interpret cross-lingual understanding of the mT5 model. Through these observations, one can favorably choose the best source language for a task, and can anticipate its training data demands. A key finding of this work is that similarity of syntax, morphology and phonology are good predictors of cross-lingual transfer, significantly more than just the lexical similarity of languages. For a given language, we are able to predict zero-shot performance, that increases on a logarithmic scale with the number of few-shot target language data points.

Time series analysis is crucial in diverse scenarios. Beyond forecasting, considerable real-world tasks are categorized into classification, imputation, and anomaly detection, underscoring different capabilities termed time series understanding in this paper. While GPT-style models have been positioned as foundation models for time series forecasting, the BERT-style architecture, which has made significant advances in natural language understanding, has not been fully unlocked for time series understanding, possibly attributed to the undesirable dropout of essential elements of BERT. In this paper, inspired by the shared multi-granularity structure between multivariate time series and multisentence documents, we design TimesBERT to learn generic representations of time series including temporal patterns and variate-centric characteristics. In addition to a natural adaptation of masked modeling, we propose a parallel task of functional token prediction to embody vital multi-granularity structures. Our model is pre-trained on 260 billion time points across diverse domains. Leveraging multi-granularity representations, TimesBERT achieves state-of-the-art performance across four typical downstream understanding tasks, outperforming task-specific models and language pre-trained backbones, positioning it as a versatile foundation model for time series understanding.

While large language models (LLMs) excel in various natural language tasks in English, their performance in lower-resourced languages like Hebrew, especially for generative tasks such as abstractive summarization, remains unclear. The high morphological richness in Hebrew adds further challenges due to the ambiguity in sentence comprehension and the complexities in meaning construction. In this paper, we address this resource and evaluation gap by introducing HeSum, a novel benchmark specifically designed for abstractive text summarization in Modern Hebrew. HeSum consists of 10,000 article-summary pairs sourced from Hebrew news websites written by professionals. Linguistic analysis confirms HeSum's high abstractness and unique morphological challenges. We show that HeSum presents distinct difficulties for contemporary state-of-the-art LLMs, establishing it as a valuable testbed for generative language technology in Hebrew, and MRLs generative challenges in general.

Existing works on general time series forecasting build foundation models with heavy model parameters through large-scale multi-source pre-training. These models achieve superior generalization ability across various datasets at the cost of significant computational burdens and limitations in resource-constrained scenarios. This paper introduces LightGTS, a lightweight general time series forecasting model designed from the perspective of consistent periodical modeling. To handle diverse scales and intrinsic periods in multi-source pre-training, we introduce Periodical Tokenization, which extracts consistent periodic patterns across different datasets with varying scales. To better utilize the periodicity in the decoding process, we further introduce Periodical Parallel Decoding, which leverages historical tokens to improve forecasting. Based on the two techniques above which fully leverage the inductive bias of periods inherent in time series, LightGTS uses a lightweight model to achieve outstanding performance on general time series forecasting. It achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance on 9 real-world benchmarks in both zero-shot and full-shot settings with much better efficiency compared with existing time series foundation models.

This work summarizes two strategies for completing time-series (TS) tasks using today's language model (LLM): LLM-for-TS, design and train a fundamental large model for TS data; TS-for-LLM, enable the pre-trained LLM to handle TS data. Considering the insufficient data accumulation, limited resources, and semantic context requirements, this work focuses on TS-for-LLM methods, where we aim to activate LLM's ability for TS data by designing a TS embedding method suitable for LLM. The proposed method is named TEST. It first tokenizes TS, builds an encoder to embed them by instance-wise, feature-wise, and text-prototype-aligned contrast, and then creates prompts to make LLM more open to embeddings, and finally implements TS tasks. Experiments are carried out on TS classification and forecasting tasks using 8 LLMs with different structures and sizes. Although its results cannot significantly outperform the current SOTA models customized for TS tasks, by treating LLM as the pattern machine, it can endow LLM's ability to process TS data without compromising the language ability. This paper is intended to serve as a foundational work that will inspire further research.

Ensembling is among the most popular tools in machine learning (ML) due to its effectiveness in minimizing variance and thus improving generalization. Most ensembling methods for black-box base learners fall under the umbrella of "stacked generalization," namely training an ML algorithm that takes the inferences from the base learners as input. While stacking has been widely applied in practice, its theoretical properties are poorly understood. In this paper, we prove a novel result, showing that choosing the best stacked generalization from a (finite or finite-dimensional) family of stacked generalizations based on cross-validated performance does not perform "much worse" than the oracle best. Our result strengthens and significantly extends the results in Van der Laan et al. (2007). Inspired by the theoretical analysis, we further propose a particular family of stacked generalizations in the context of probabilistic forecasting, each one with a different sensitivity for how much the ensemble weights are allowed to vary across items, timestamps in the forecast horizon, and quantiles. Experimental results demonstrate the performance gain of the proposed method.

Despite much progress in recent years, the vast majority of work in natural language processing (NLP) is on standard languages with many speakers. In this work, we instead focus on low-resource languages and in particular non-standardized low-resource languages. Even within branches of major language families, often considered well-researched, little is known about the extent and type of available resources and what the major NLP challenges are for these language varieties. The first step to address this situation is a systematic survey of available corpora (most importantly, annotated corpora, which are particularly valuable for NLP research). Focusing on Germanic low-resource language varieties, we provide such a survey in this paper. Except for geolocation (origin of speaker or document), we find that manually annotated linguistic resources are sparse and, if they exist, mostly cover morphosyntax. Despite this lack of resources, we observe that interest in this area is increasing: there is active development and a growing research community. To facilitate research, we make our overview of over 80 corpora publicly available. We share a companion website of this overview at https://github.com/mainlp/germanic-lrl-corpora .

Recently, deep learning has driven significant advancements in multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) tasks. However, much of the current research in MTSF tends to evaluate models from a holistic perspective, which obscures the individual contributions and leaves critical issues unaddressed. Adhering to the current modeling paradigms, this work bridges these gaps by systematically decomposing deep MTSF methods into their core, fine-grained components like series-patching tokenization, channel-independent strategy, attention modules, or even Large Language Models and Time-series Foundation Models. Through extensive experiments and component-level analysis, our work offers more profound insights than previous benchmarks that typically discuss models as a whole. Furthermore, we propose a novel automated solution called TSGym for MTSF tasks. Unlike traditional hyperparameter tuning, neural architecture searching or fixed model selection, TSGym performs fine-grained component selection and automated model construction, which enables the creation of more effective solutions tailored to diverse time series data, therefore enhancing model transferability across different data sources and robustness against distribution shifts. Extensive experiments indicate that TSGym significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art MTSF and AutoML methods. All code is publicly available on https://github.com/SUFE-AILAB/TSGym.

We introduce NeuralProphet, a successor to Facebook Prophet, which set an industry standard for explainable, scalable, and user-friendly forecasting frameworks. With the proliferation of time series data, explainable forecasting remains a challenging task for business and operational decision making. Hybrid solutions are needed to bridge the gap between interpretable classical methods and scalable deep learning models. We view Prophet as a precursor to such a solution. However, Prophet lacks local context, which is essential for forecasting the near-term future and is challenging to extend due to its Stan backend. NeuralProphet is a hybrid forecasting framework based on PyTorch and trained with standard deep learning methods, making it easy for developers to extend the framework. Local context is introduced with auto-regression and covariate modules, which can be configured as classical linear regression or as Neural Networks. Otherwise, NeuralProphet retains the design philosophy of Prophet and provides the same basic model components. Our results demonstrate that NeuralProphet produces interpretable forecast components of equivalent or superior quality to Prophet on a set of generated time series. NeuralProphet outperforms Prophet on a diverse collection of real-world datasets. For short to medium-term forecasts, NeuralProphet improves forecast accuracy by 55 to 92 percent.

The success of pre-trained contextualized representations has prompted researchers to analyze them for the presence of linguistic information. Indeed, it is natural to assume that these pre-trained representations do encode some level of linguistic knowledge as they have brought about large empirical improvements on a wide variety of NLP tasks, which suggests they are learning true linguistic generalization. In this work, we focus on intrinsic probing, an analysis technique where the goal is not only to identify whether a representation encodes a linguistic attribute but also to pinpoint where this attribute is encoded. We propose a novel latent-variable formulation for constructing intrinsic probes and derive a tractable variational approximation to the log-likelihood. Our results show that our model is versatile and yields tighter mutual information estimates than two intrinsic probes previously proposed in the literature. Finally, we find empirical evidence that pre-trained representations develop a cross-lingually entangled notion of morphosyntax.