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Dec 24

Universal features of price formation in financial markets: perspectives from Deep Learning

Using a large-scale Deep Learning approach applied to a high-frequency database containing billions of electronic market quotes and transactions for US equities, we uncover nonparametric evidence for the existence of a universal and stationary price formation mechanism relating the dynamics of supply and demand for a stock, as revealed through the order book, to subsequent variations in its market price. We assess the model by testing its out-of-sample predictions for the direction of price moves given the history of price and order flow, across a wide range of stocks and time periods. The universal price formation model is shown to exhibit a remarkably stable out-of-sample prediction accuracy across time, for a wide range of stocks from different sectors. Interestingly, these results also hold for stocks which are not part of the training sample, showing that the relations captured by the model are universal and not asset-specific. The universal model --- trained on data from all stocks --- outperforms, in terms of out-of-sample prediction accuracy, asset-specific linear and nonlinear models trained on time series of any given stock, showing that the universal nature of price formation weighs in favour of pooling together financial data from various stocks, rather than designing asset- or sector-specific models as commonly done. Standard data normalizations based on volatility, price level or average spread, or partitioning the training data into sectors or categories such as large/small tick stocks, do not improve training results. On the other hand, inclusion of price and order flow history over many past observations is shown to improve forecasting performance, showing evidence of path-dependence in price dynamics.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 19, 2018

Perturbation Ontology based Graph Attention Networks

In recent years, graph representation learning has undergone a paradigm shift, driven by the emergence and proliferation of graph neural networks (GNNs) and their heterogeneous counterparts. Heterogeneous GNNs have shown remarkable success in extracting low-dimensional embeddings from complex graphs that encompass diverse entity types and relationships. While meta-path-based techniques have long been recognized for their ability to capture semantic affinities among nodes, their dependence on manual specification poses a significant limitation. In contrast, matrix-focused methods accelerate processing by utilizing structural cues but often overlook contextual richness. In this paper, we challenge the current paradigm by introducing ontology as a fundamental semantic primitive within complex graphs. Our goal is to integrate the strengths of both matrix-centric and meta-path-based approaches into a unified framework. We propose perturbation Ontology-based Graph Attention Networks (POGAT), a novel methodology that combines ontology subgraphs with an advanced self-supervised learning paradigm to achieve a deep contextual understanding. The core innovation of POGAT lies in our enhanced homogeneous perturbing scheme designed to generate rigorous negative samples, encouraging the model to explore minimal contextual features more thoroughly. Through extensive empirical evaluations, we demonstrate that POGAT significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving a groundbreaking improvement of up to 10.78\% in F1-score for the critical task of link prediction and 12.01\% in Micro-F1 for the critical task of node classification.

  • 6 authors
·
Nov 27, 2024

Polyline Path Masked Attention for Vision Transformer

Global dependency modeling and spatial position modeling are two core issues of the foundational architecture design in current deep learning frameworks. Recently, Vision Transformers (ViTs) have achieved remarkable success in computer vision, leveraging the powerful global dependency modeling capability of the self-attention mechanism. Furthermore, Mamba2 has demonstrated its significant potential in natural language processing tasks by explicitly modeling the spatial adjacency prior through the structured mask. In this paper, we propose Polyline Path Masked Attention (PPMA) that integrates the self-attention mechanism of ViTs with an enhanced structured mask of Mamba2, harnessing the complementary strengths of both architectures. Specifically, we first ameliorate the traditional structured mask of Mamba2 by introducing a 2D polyline path scanning strategy and derive its corresponding structured mask, polyline path mask, which better preserves the adjacency relationships among image tokens. Notably, we conduct a thorough theoretical analysis on the structural characteristics of the proposed polyline path mask and design an efficient algorithm for the computation of the polyline path mask. Next, we embed the polyline path mask into the self-attention mechanism of ViTs, enabling explicit modeling of spatial adjacency prior. Extensive experiments on standard benchmarks, including image classification, object detection, and segmentation, demonstrate that our model outperforms previous state-of-the-art approaches based on both state-space models and Transformers. For example, our proposed PPMA-T/S/B models achieve 48.7%/51.1%/52.3% mIoU on the ADE20K semantic segmentation task, surpassing RMT-T/S/B by 0.7%/1.3%/0.3%, respectively. Code is available at https://github.com/zhongchenzhao/PPMA.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 18

MetaHGNIE: Meta-Path Induced Hypergraph Contrastive Learning in Heterogeneous Knowledge Graphs

Node importance estimation (NIE) in heterogeneous knowledge graphs is a critical yet challenging task, essential for applications such as recommendation, knowledge reasoning, and question answering. Existing methods often rely on pairwise connections, neglecting high-order dependencies among multiple entities and relations, and they treat structural and semantic signals independently, hindering effective cross-modal integration. To address these challenges, we propose MetaHGNIE, a meta-path induced hypergraph contrastive learning framework for disentangling and aligning structural and semantic information. MetaHGNIE constructs a higher-order knowledge graph via meta-path sequences, where typed hyperedges capture multi-entity relational contexts. Structural dependencies are aggregated with local attention, while semantic representations are encoded through a hypergraph transformer equipped with sparse chunking to reduce redundancy. Finally, a multimodal fusion module integrates structural and semantic embeddings under contrastive learning with auxiliary supervision, ensuring robust cross-modal alignment. Extensive experiments on benchmark NIE datasets demonstrate that MetaHGNIE consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. These results highlight the effectiveness of explicitly modeling higher-order interactions and cross-modal alignment in heterogeneous knowledge graphs. Our code is available at https://github.com/SEU-WENJIA/DualHNIE

  • 7 authors
·
Dec 13

Pathformer: Recursive Path Query Encoding for Complex Logical Query Answering

Complex Logical Query Answering (CLQA) over incomplete knowledge graphs is a challenging task. Recently, Query Embedding (QE) methods are proposed to solve CLQA by performing multi-hop logical reasoning. However, most of them only consider historical query context information while ignoring future information, which leads to their failure to capture the complex dependencies behind the elements of a query. In recent years, the transformer architecture has shown a strong ability to model long-range dependencies between words. The bidirectional attention mechanism proposed by the transformer can solve the limitation of these QE methods regarding query context. Still, as a sequence model, it is difficult for the transformer to model complex logical queries with branch structure computation graphs directly. To this end, we propose a neural one-point embedding method called Pathformer based on the tree-like computation graph, i.e., query computation tree. Specifically, Pathformer decomposes the query computation tree into path query sequences by branches and then uses the transformer encoder to recursively encode these path query sequences to obtain the final query embedding. This allows Pathformer to fully utilize future context information to explicitly model the complex interactions between various parts of the path query. Experimental results show that Pathformer outperforms existing competitive neural QE methods, and we found that Pathformer has the potential to be applied to non-one-point embedding space.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 21, 2024

Igniting Creative Writing in Small Language Models: LLM-as-a-Judge versus Multi-Agent Refined Rewards

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable creative writing capabilities, yet their substantial computational demands hinder widespread use. Enhancing Small Language Models (SLMs) offers a promising alternative, but current methods like Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) struggle with novelty, and Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) is costly. This paper explores two distinct AI-driven reward strategies within a Reinforcement Learning from AI Feedback (RLAIF) framework to ignite the creative writing of a 7B-parameter SLM, specifically for generating Chinese greetings. The first strategy employs a RM trained on high-quality preference data curated by a novel multi-agent rejection sampling framework designed for creative tasks. The second, more novel strategy utilizes a principle-guided LLM-as-a-Judge, whose reward function is optimized via an adversarial training scheme with a reflection mechanism, to directly provide reward signals. Comprehensive experiments reveal that while both approaches significantly enhance creative output over baselines, the principle-guided LLM-as-a-Judge demonstrably yields superior generation quality. Furthermore, it offers notable advantages in training efficiency and reduced dependency on human-annotated data, presenting a more scalable and effective path towards creative SLMs. Our automated evaluation methods also exhibit strong alignment with human judgments. Our code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/weixiaolong94-hub/Igniting-Creative-Writing-in-Small-Language-Models.

  • 7 authors
·
Aug 29

PGN: The RNN's New Successor is Effective for Long-Range Time Series Forecasting

Due to the recurrent structure of RNN, the long information propagation path poses limitations in capturing long-term dependencies, gradient explosion/vanishing issues, and inefficient sequential execution. Based on this, we propose a novel paradigm called Parallel Gated Network (PGN) as the new successor to RNN. PGN directly captures information from previous time steps through the designed Historical Information Extraction (HIE) layer and leverages gated mechanisms to select and fuse it with the current time step information. This reduces the information propagation path to O(1), effectively addressing the limitations of RNN. To enhance PGN's performance in long-range time series forecasting tasks, we propose a novel temporal modeling framework called Temporal PGN (TPGN). TPGN incorporates two branches to comprehensively capture the semantic information of time series. One branch utilizes PGN to capture long-term periodic patterns while preserving their local characteristics. The other branch employs patches to capture short-term information and aggregate the global representation of the series. TPGN achieves a theoretical complexity of O(L), ensuring efficiency in its operations. Experimental results on five benchmark datasets demonstrate the state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance and high efficiency of TPGN, further confirming the effectiveness of PGN as the new successor to RNN in long-range time series forecasting. The code is available in this repository: https://github.com/Water2sea/TPGN.

  • 6 authors
·
Sep 26, 2024

DiT: Efficient Vision Transformers with Dynamic Token Routing

Recently, the tokens of images share the same static data flow in many dense networks. However, challenges arise from the variance among the objects in images, such as large variations in the spatial scale and difficulties of recognition for visual entities. In this paper, we propose a data-dependent token routing strategy to elaborate the routing paths of image tokens for Dynamic Vision Transformer, dubbed DiT. The proposed framework generates a data-dependent path per token, adapting to the object scales and visual discrimination of tokens. In feed-forward, the differentiable routing gates are designed to select the scaling paths and feature transformation paths for image tokens, leading to multi-path feature propagation. In this way, the impact of object scales and visual discrimination of image representation can be carefully tuned. Moreover, the computational cost can be further reduced by giving budget constraints to the routing gate and early-stopping of feature extraction. In experiments, our DiT achieves superior performance and favorable complexity/accuracy trade-offs than many SoTA methods on ImageNet classification, object detection, instance segmentation, and semantic segmentation. Particularly, the DiT-B5 obtains 84.8\% top-1 Acc on ImageNet with 10.3 GFLOPs, which is 1.0\% higher than that of the SoTA method with similar computational complexity. These extensive results demonstrate that DiT can serve as versatile backbones for various vision tasks.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 7, 2023

The Coverage Principle: A Framework for Understanding Compositional Generalization

Large language models excel at pattern matching, yet often fall short in systematic compositional generalization. We propose the coverage principle: a data-centric framework showing that models relying primarily on pattern matching for compositional tasks cannot reliably generalize beyond substituting fragments that yield identical results when used in the same contexts. We demonstrate that this framework has a strong predictive power for the generalization capabilities of Transformers. First, we derive and empirically confirm that the training data required for two-hop generalization grows at least quadratically with the token set size, and the training data efficiency does not improve with 20x parameter scaling. Second, for compositional tasks with path ambiguity where one variable affects the output through multiple computational paths, we show that Transformers learn context-dependent state representations that undermine both performance and interoperability. Third, Chain-of-Thought supervision improves training data efficiency for multi-hop tasks but still struggles with path ambiguity. Finally, we outline a mechanism-based taxonomy that distinguishes three ways neural networks can generalize: structure-based (bounded by coverage), property-based (leveraging algebraic invariances), and shared-operator (through function reuse). This conceptual lens contextualizes our results and highlights where new architectural ideas are needed to achieve systematic compositionally. Overall, the coverage principle provides a unified lens for understanding compositional reasoning, and underscores the need for fundamental architectural or training innovations to achieve truly systematic compositionality.

  • 10 authors
·
May 26 1